Basin-scale transmissivity and storativity estimation using hydraulic tomography

While tomographic inversion has been successfully applied to laboratory- and field-scale tests, here we address the new issue of scale that arises when extending the method to a basin. Specifically, we apply the hydraulic tomography (HT) concept to jointly interpret four multiwell aquifer tests in a synthetic basin to illustrate the superiority of this approach to a more traditional Theis analysis of the same tests. Transmissivity and storativity are estimated for each element of a regional numerical model using the geostatistically based sequential successive linear estimator (SSLE) inverse solution method. We find that HT inversion is an effective strategy for incorporating data from potentially disparate aquifer tests into a basin-wide aquifer property estimate. The robustness of the SSLE algorithm is investigated by considering the effects of noisy observations, changing the variance of the true aquifer parameters, and supplying incorrect initial and boundary conditions to the inverse model. Ground water flow velocities and total confined storage are used as metrics to compare true and estimated parameter fields; they quantify the effectiveness of HT and SSLE compared to a Theis solution methodology. We discuss alternative software that can be used for implementing tomography inversion.     

Penetrative convection in rapidly rotating flows: preliminary results from numerical simulation

Turbulent convection forced by a surface heat flux into a stably stratified region is a feature of both the atmospheric and oceanic planetary boundary layers. Of particular interest is the interface between the convective layer and the stable stratification, where the entrainment of fluid into the convective layer by penetrating plumes may lead to a reverse buoyancy flux, and an enhancement of the stable stratification. Whereas in the atmosphere the influence of rotation on this penetrative convection is negligible, oceanic convection may be subjected to lower Rossby numbers and hence greater rotational influence. To isolate the effects of rotation, we present three numerical solutions for turbulent penetrative convection, characterised by different rotation rates, with all other parameters being held constant. Our results indicate that at lower Rossby numbers the lateral scale of the plumes is reduced, whereas the vertical vorticity of the plumes is much enhanced. Vertical transports of buoyancy and kinetic energy across the convective layer are reduced, leading to less efficient penetration at the interface with the stratified layer, and hence less reverse buoyancy flux in this region.     

Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km²), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R ²) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.     

Texture development and elastic stresses in magnesiowűstite at high pressure

Cubic magnesiowűstite has been deformed in a diamond anvil cell at room temperature. We present results for (Mg_0.4Fe_0.6)O, (Mg_0.25Fe_0.75)O, and (Mg_0.1Fe_0.9)O up to 37, 16, and 18 GPa, respectively. The diffraction images, obtained with the radial diffraction technique, are analyzed using both single peak intensities and a Rietveld method. For all samples, we observe a [100] fiber texture but the texture strength decreases with increasing iron content. This texture pattern is consistent with {110}〈1-10〉 slip. The images were also analyzed for stress, elastic strains, and elastic anisotropy. In general, the stress measured in magnesiowűstite samples is lower than previously measured on MgO. The elastic anisotropy deduced from the X-ray measurements shows a broad agreement with models based on measurements with other techniques.     

On Selection of Analog Volcanoes

Estimating the occurrence probability of volcanic eruptions with VEI ??3 is challenging in several aspects, including data scarcity. A?suggested approach has been to use a simple model, where eruptions are assumed to follow a Poisson process, augmenting the data used to estimate the eruption onset rate with that from several analog volcanoes. In this model the eruption onset rate is a random variable that follows a gamma distribution, the parameters of which are estimated by an empirical Bayes analysis. The selection of analog volcanoes is an important step that needs to be explicitly considered in this model, as we show that the analysis is not always feasible due to the required over-dispersion in the resulting negative binomial distribution for the numbers of eruptions. We propose a modification to the method which allows for both over-dispersed and under-dispersed data, and permits analog volcanoes to be chosen on other grounds than mathematical tractability.     

Extinct mountain goat (Oreamnos harringtoni) in Southeastern Utah

The extinct Harrington's mountain goat (Oreamnos harringtoni Stock) is predominantly known from dry cave localities in the Grand Canyon, Arizona, in addition to two sites in the Great Basin, Nevada, and from San Josecito Cave, Nuevo Leon, Mexico. A dry shelter in Natural Bridges National Monument, on the central Colorado Plateau, southeastern Utah, preserves numerous remains of the extinct mountain goat in addition to pack rat middens. Remains from a 100-cm stratigraphic profile indicate that O. harringtoni lived on the plateau >39,800 yr B.P., the oldest directly dated find of extinct mountain goat. Plant macrofossils indicate that Engelmann's spruce (Picea engelmannii), limber pine (Pinus flexilis), rose (Rosa cf. woodsii), and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) grew during the late Pleistocene where a riparian and a pinyon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus osteosperma) community now predominates; Douglas fir are found only in mesic, protected, north-facing areas. Limber pine, Douglas fir, bark, and grasses were the major dietary components in the dung. A springtime diet of birch (Betula) is determined from pollen clumps in dung pellets.     

Multiphase Transport of Tritium in Unsaturated Porous Media—Bare and Vegetated Soils

Tritium is a short-lived radioactive isotope (T _1/2=12.33 yr) produced naturally in the atmosphere by cosmic radiation but also released into the atmosphere and hydrosphere by nuclear activities (nuclear power stations, radioactive waste disposal). Tritium of natural or anthropogenic origin may end up in soils through tritiated rain, and may eventually appear in groundwater. Tritium in groundwater can be re-emitted to the atmosphere through the vadose zone. The tritium concentration in soil varies sharply close to the ground surface and is very sensitive to many interrelated factors like rainfall amount, evapotranspiration rate, rooting depth and water table position, rendering the modeling a rather complex task. Among many existing codes, SOLVEG is a one-dimensional numerical model to simulate multiphase transport through the unsaturated zone. Processes include tritium diffusion in both, gas and liquid phase, advection and dispersion for tritium in liquid phase, radioactive decay and equilibrium partitioning between liquid and gas phase. For its application with bare or vegetated (perennial vegetation or crops) soil surfaces and shallow or deep groundwater levels (contaminated or non-contaminated aquifer) the model has been adapted in order to include ground cover, root growth and root water uptake. The current work describes the approach and results of the modeling of a tracer test with tritiated water (7.3×10⁸ Bq m⁻³) in a cultivated soil with an underlying 14 m deep unsaturated zone (non-contaminated). According to the simulation results, the soil’s natural attenuation process is governed by evapotranspiration and tritium re-emission. The latter process is due to a tritium concentration gradient between soil air and an atmospheric boundary layer at the soil surface. Re-emission generally occurs during night time, since at day time it is coupled with the evaporation process. Evapotranspiration and re-emission removed considerable quantities of tritium and limited penetration of surface-applied tritiated water in the vadose zone to no more than ∼1–2 m. After a period of 15 months tritium background concentration in soil was attained.     

Using Active Contours for Semi-Automated Tracking of UV and EUV Solar Flare Ribbons

Solar-flare UV and EUV images show elongated bright “ribbons” that move over time. If these ribbons are assumed to locate the footpoints of magnetic-field lines reconnecting in the corona, then it is clear that studying their evolution can provide important insight into the reconnection process. An image-processing method based on active contours (commonly referred to as “snakes”) is proposed as a method for tracking UV and EUV flare ribbons and is tested on images from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE). This paper introduces the basic concepts of such an approach with a brief overview of the history and theory behind active contours. It then details the specifics of the snake algorithm developed for this work and shows the results of running the algorithm on test images. The results from the application of the developed algorithm are reported for six different TRACE flares (five in UV and one in EUV). The discussion of these results uses the output from an expert tracking the same ribbons by eye as a benchmark, and against these the snake algorithm is shown to compare favourably in certain conditions, but less so in others. The applicability of the automated snake algorithm to the general problem of ribbon tracking is discussed and suggestions for ways to improve the snake algorithm are proposed.