Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Secular variations in the spectrum of solar p-modes

The solar p-mode spectrum of very low I is measured with high accuracy for a long enough period of time so as to allow the search for solar cycle variations. In this paper solar cycle variations of the frequency and energy of the modes are confirmed. Moreover, a slight variation,within errors, of its rotational splitting with the solar cycle, is suggested.     

Aquifer Characterization Using Fiber Bragg Grating Multi-Level Monitoring System

Groundwater responses measured from multiple wells at different depths are essential for delineating the aquifer heterogeneity using hydraulic tomography (HT). In general, conducting HT requires many wells because traditional well monitoring is usually partially open at a specific depth interval or is fully penetrating. Accordingly, conducting an HT survey is typically costly and time-consuming. To tackle these issues, a new multi-level monitoring system (MLMS) for the HT survey was developed using the fiber Bragg grating (FBG) technique. This FBG MLMS could collect the depth-discrete groundwater observations from a fully penetrated 2-inch well. Three field campaigns were conducted to validate the capability of the FBG MLMS for HT surveys. The results show that the accuracy and stability of this MLMS are reliable and that FBG MLMS is beneficial for conducting an HT survey. Specifically, compared to the traditional monitoring well in an injection event, this FBG MLMS can concurrently cause an increase in the number of cross-hole tests several times and collect many more head observations than the standard methods, resulting in the observed flow fields efficiently reaching ergodic conditions and effectively improving the accuracy of the estimated hydraulic heterogeneity. Therefore, the FBG MLMS could be an alternative MLMS for efficiently and economically conducting an HT survey.     

Long-Term Evolution of the Seismic Activity Preceding the 2015 Seismic Crisis at Deception Island Volcano,Antarctica (2008-2015)

Surveys in Geophysics - Deception Island is an active volcano located in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica. Although the last eruptions occurred in 1967-1970, the volcano has undergone periods...     

Verification of two hydrological models for real-time flood forecasting in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region

Natural Hazards - The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is extremely susceptible to periodic monsoon floods. Early warning systems with the ability to predict floods in advance can benefit tens of...     

Rapid magmatic processes accompany arc–continent collision: the Western Bismarck arc, Papua New Guinea

New U–Th–Ra, major and trace element, and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data are presented for young lavas from the New Britain and Western Bismarck arcs in Papua New Guinea. New Britain is an oceanic arc, whereas the latter is the site of an arc–continent collision. Building on a recent study of the Manus Basin, contrasts between the two arcs are used to evaluate the processes and timescales of magma generation accompanying arc–continent collision and possible slab detachment. All three suites share many attributes characteristic of arc lavas that can be ascribed to the addition of a regionally uniform subduction component derived from the subducting altered oceanic crust and sediment followed by dynamic melting of the modified mantle. However, the Western Bismarck arc lavas diverge from the Pb isotope mixing array formed by the New Britain and the Manus Basin lavas toward elevated ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb. We interpret this to reflect a second and subsequent addition of sediment melt at crustal depth during collision. ²³⁸U and ²²⁶Ra excesses are preserved in all of the lavas and are greatest in the Western Bismarck arc. High-Mg andesites with high Sr/Y ratios in the westernmost arc are attributed to recent shallow mantle flux melting at the slab edge. Data for two historical rhyolites are also presented. Although these rhyolites formed in quite different tectonic settings and display different geochemical and isotopic compositions, both formed from mafic parents within millennia.     

Strategies to mitigate aliasing of loading signals while estimating GPS frame parameters

Although GNSS techniques are theoretically sensitive to the Earth center of mass, it is often preferable to remove intrinsic origin and scale information from the estimated station positions since they are known to be affected by systematic errors. This is usually done by estimating the parameters of a linearized similarity transformation which relates the quasi-instantaneous frames to a long-term frame such as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). It is well known that non-linear station motions can partially alias into these parameters. We discuss in this paper some procedures that may allow reducing these aliasing effects in the case of the GPS techniques. The options include the use of well-distributed sub-networks for the frame transformation estimation, the use of site loading corrections, a modification of the stochastic model by downweighting heights, or the joint estimation of the low degrees of the deformation field. We confirm that the standard approach consisting of estimating the transformation over the whole network is particularly harmful for the loading signals if the network is not well distributed. Downweighting the height component, using a uniform sub-network, or estimating the deformation field perform similarly in drastically reducing the amplitude of the aliasing effect. The application of these methods to reprocessed GPS terrestrial frames permits an assessment of the level of agreement between GPS and our loading model, which is found to be about 1.5 mm WRMS in height and 0.8 mm WRMS in the horizontal at the annual frequency. Aliased loading signals are not the main source of discrepancies between loading displacement models and GPS position time series.     

Secondary mineralization pathways induced by dissimilatory iron reduction of ferrihydrite under advective flow

Iron (hydr)oxides not only serve as potent sorbents and repositories for nutrients and contaminants but also provide a terminal electron acceptor for microbial respiration. The microbial reduction of Fe (hydr)oxides and the subsequent secondary solid-phase transformations will, therefore, have a profound influence on the biogeochemical cycling of Fe as well as associated metals. Here we elucidate the pathways and mechanisms of secondary mineralization during dissimilatory iron reduction by a common iron-reducing bacterium, Shewanella putrefaciens (strain CN32), of 2-line ferrihydrite under advective flow conditions. Secondary mineralization of ferrihydrite occurs via a coupled, biotic-abiotic pathway primarily resulting in the production of magnetite and goethite with minor amounts of green rust. Operating mineralization pathways are driven by competing abiotic reactions of bacterially generated ferrous iron with the ferrihydrite surface. Subsequent to the initial sorption of ferrous iron on ferrihydrite, goethite (via dissolution/reprecipitation) and/or magnetite (via solid-state conversion) precipitation ensues resulting in the spatial coupling of both goethite and magnetite with the ferrihydrite surface. The distribution of goethite and magnetite within the column is dictated, in large part, by flow-induced ferrous Fe profiles. While goethite precipitation occurs over a large Fe(II) concentration range, magnetite accumulation is only observed at concentrations exceeding 0.3 mmol/L (equivalent to 0.5 mmol Fe[II]/g ferrihydrite) following 16 d of reaction. Consequently, transport-regulated ferrous Fe profiles result in a progression of magnetite levels downgradient within the column. Declining microbial reduction over time results in lower Fe(II) concentrations and a subsequent shift in magnetite precipitation mechanisms from nucleation to crystal growth. While the initial precipitation rate of goethite exceeds that of magnetite, continued growth is inhibited by magnetite formation, potentially a result of lower Fe(III) activity. Conversely, the presence of lower initial Fe(II) concentrations followed by higher concentrations promotes goethite accumulation and inhibits magnetite precipitation even when Fe(II) concentrations later increase, thus revealing the importance of both the rate of Fe(II) generation and flow-induced Fe(II) profiles. As such, the operating secondary mineralization pathways following reductive dissolution of ferrihydrite at a given pH are governed principally by flow-regulated Fe(II) concentration, which drives mineral precipitation kinetics and selection of competing mineral pathways.     

Capital,the state and rural land holdings: the example of the pastoral industry in the Northern Territory

Large capital interests have a long history of ownership of rural land in Australia. There have been many changes in this kind of ownership in recent decades. The rationale for various forms of ownership of large leasehold areas in the Northern Territory is presented. New financial structures operating in local and international capital markets and the opportunities presented by the state are important parts of this rationale.     

Observing Magnetic Fields in Star-Forming Regions

Magnetic field strengths and directions can be estimated using many different observational techniques that span a wide range of wavelengths. Each observational method favours different regimes of scale size, density and other physical conditions. The available techniques and their ranges of applicability are briefly described and the current status of observations is reviewed, with particular emphasis on high-resolution observations of star-forming regions.