城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究

风险管理研究已成为防灾减灾工作从“被动救灾”到“主动预防”转化的热门课题。本文回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足。提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法。最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法。     

2005年10月8日巴基斯坦7.8级地震热红外异常

收集了2005年巴基斯坦7.8级地震区Noaa17/AVHRR的2004-2005年的热红外遥感资料,并进行地表温度反演,得到了以震中为中心7°×7°范围的地表温度值。经热红外图像解译与构造关系对比分析,表明热红外解译图像与构造分布具有一致性。震源区地表温度时间序列显示:震前大约3个月内震源区存在明显的热红外异常。     

1997-1998年伽师强震群震源区应力场特征

利用1997-1998年伽师强震群中强地震震源机制系统聚类及震源区应力场反演,得到以下主要结果:(1)伽师强震群中强地震主要以走滑和正断层为主,伽师震源区主压应力方向为NNE或近NS向,与相邻的柯坪块体区域构造应力场方向不一致;伽师强震群的破裂面沿NEE方向,属左旋破裂;(2)4~5级中强地震应力场反演得到最大主压应力轴为NNE向,最小主压应力轴为NWW向,中等主应力轴倾角为65°,比较直立;(3)伽师强震群震源区应力场在强震前后经历了一系列变化。最后对所得结果进行了一定的讨论。     

云南水汞群体非均匀度异常与成组强震活动关系

阐述了一种前兆群体异常信息提取新方法前兆群体非均匀度的数学原理,并以云南水汞群体异常信息为例进行了具体计算。结果表明该方法以群体异常分布特征的变化为异常标准(ID≥1),达到异常即自动识别报警。该方法能克服个人经验的局限,易为他人进行检验,可成为本地区成组强震预测对应概率较高的新指标。     

2006年台湾屏东海外7.2级地震前福建漳州汰内井水氡异常分析

通过对福建华安县汰内井2005年以来的水氡测值进行分析,提取了中期及短期异常,认为这些异常与2006年12月26日台湾屏东海外7.2级地震有关。     

甘肃礼县盐关井水位短临异常与滇北强震的关系

在分析了甘肃礼县盐关井水位20多年来的异常变化与邻近地区发生中强地震的对应关系基础上,着重就18年来井水位出现两次较大幅度的负异常与相距1000 km多的云南禄劝1985年6.1级地震和云南大姚2003年6.2级地震的对应关系进行了探讨,认为该井很可能是滇北两个震区强震的“穴位”和灵敏点。     

Line emission from accretion discs around black holes: the analytic approach

The broad X-ray iron line observed in many active galactic nuclei spectra is thought to originate from the accretion disc surrounding the putative supermassive black hole. We show here how to perform the analytical integration of the geodesic equations that describe the photon trajectories in the general case of a rotating black hole (Kerr metric), in order to write a fast and efficient numerical code for modelling emission line profiles from accretion discs.     

Seasonal acceleration of the rate of total ozone decreases over Central Europe: impact of tropopause height changes

Total ozone data from some European stations have been analyzed to detect the ozone decrease in different seasons from 1979 to 1995. The differences between the winter–spring (December–March) and summer (May–August) total ozone means have decreased distinctly during the last three decades, by 10 Dobson Units per decade, showing that the winter–spring decrease is significantly stronger than the summer one. Applying a multiple regression model to the monthly means of tropopause height, positive trends in the summer and winter–spring seasons have been found, especially since 1979. This corresponds to the accelerating ozone decrease then. The possibility of using tropopause height variations as an indicator of dynamical variability in the total ozone trend model is discussed. The total ozone response to the changes of tropopause height seems to be independent of timescale over which the tropopause-total ozone relationship has been examined (month-to-month, interannual). The total ozone trends, as well as the accelerated rate of ozone decrease since 1979 in the winter–spring and summer seasons, respectively, are reduced by about 0.5–1% per decade after inclusion of the tropopause height effect on the ozone model.