Estimating baselines for climate change for less developed countries: the case of the Sahel

Abstract

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol provide mechanisms for assisting less developed countries that are adversely affected by climate change. Such assistance would need a baseline, which ideally would set a precise date for specific impacts of climate change. This article presents the results of statistical tests that we carried out and, for the African region of the Sahel, finds that for precipitation (affecting food supply), impacts due to climate change can be ‘dated’ to the year 1967, when precipitation fell drastically, affecting the local food supply. Such a statistically robust benchmark would be useful to the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) of the UNFCCC. The method illustrates how other baselines may be established for the important work of the SBSTA.     

Olivine‐rich exposures at Bellicia and Arruntia craters on (4) Vesta from Dawn FC

We present an analysis of olivine‐rich exposures at Bellicia and Arruntia craters using Dawn Framing Camera (FC) color data. Our results confirm the existence of olivine‐rich materials at these localities as described by Ammannito et al. ( 2013a ) using Visual Infrared Spectrometer (VIR) data. Analyzing laboratory spectra of various howardite–eucrite–diogenite meteorites, high‐Ca pyroxenes, olivines, and olivine‐orthopyroxene mixtures, we derive three FC spectral band parameters that are indicators of olivine‐rich materials. Combining the three band parameters allows us, for the first time, to reliably identify sites showing modal olivine contents >40%. The olivine‐rich exposures at Bellicia and Arruntia are mapped using higher spatial resolution FC data. The exposures are located on the slopes of outer/inner crater walls, on the floor of Arruntia, in the ejecta, as well as in nearby fresh small impact craters. The spatial extent of the exposures ranges from a few hundred meters to few kilometers. The olivine‐rich exposures are in accordance with both the magma ocean and the serial magmatism model (e.g., Righter and Drake 1997 ; Yamaguchi et al. 1997 ). However, it remains unsolved why the olivine‐rich materials are mainly concentrated in the northern hemisphere (approximately 36–42°N, 46–74°E) and are almost absent in the Rheasilvia basin.     

Climate change beliefs, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation among farmers in the Midwestern United States

A February 2012 survey of almost 5,000 farmers across a region of the U.S. that produces more than half of the nation’s corn and soybean revealed that 66 % of farmers believed climate change is occurring (8 % mostly anthropogenic, 33 % equally human and natural, 25 % mostly natural), while 31 % were uncertain and 3.5 % did not believe that climate change is occurring. Results of initial analyses indicate that farmers’ beliefs about climate change and its causes vary considerably, and the relationships between those beliefs, concern about the potential impacts of climate change, and attitudes toward adaptive and mitigative action differ in systematic ways. Farmers who believed that climate change is occurring and attributable to human activity were significantly more likely to express concern about impacts and support adaptive and mitigative action. On the other hand, farmers who attributed climate change to natural causes, were uncertain about whether it is occurring, or did not believe that it is occurring were less concerned, less supportive of adaptation, and much less likely to support government and individual mitigative action. Results suggest that outreach with farmers should account for these covariances in belief, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation.     

Snow accumulation and its moisture origin over Dome Argus, Antarctica

The spatial and temporal variability of snow accumulation near Dome Argus, Antarctica, is assessed using new snow pit and stake measurement data together with existing snow pit, ice core and automatic weather station records. Snow accumulation rate shows large inter-annual variations, but stable multi-decadal levels over the last seven centuries. Spatial variations in snow accumulation within the space of 50 km of Dome Argus are relatively small, probably thanks to the smooth topography. A comparison of theses accumulation observations with ECMWF reanalyses (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) suggests ECMWF reanalysis captures the seasonal variations, but underestimates the overall snow accumulation at Dome Argus by ~50 %. The moisture sources for precipitation over Dome Argus are examined by means of a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic, based on the tracing of specific humidity changes along air parcel trajectories, for the period 2000–2004 using operational ECMWF analysis data. Dome Argus mainly receives moisture from the mid-latitude (46 ± 4°S) South Indian Ocean, with a seasonal latitudinal shift of about 6°. Compared to other central East Antarctic deep ice core sites such as Dome F, Dome C, Vostok, and EPICA Dronning Maud Land, Dome Argus has a more southerly moisture origin, probably due to topographic influences on the moisture transport paths. These results have important implications for the interpretation of future ice cores at Dome Argus.     

Estimates of the accuracy of vertically extrapolated forecast errors: Isobaric height and temperature

Abstract

Study of vertical extrapolations of the errors in forecast values of pressure‐level heights and temperatures indicates that they do not provide accurate off‐level information. Indeed it appears that, above 850 mb, forecast errors interpolated from observed 1000‐mb values are less accurate than level‐specific monthly mean differences. These results suggest that the de facto function of vertically interpolated single‐level forecast errors, in numerical forecast model updating, is the provision of vertical consistency rather than the injection of time‐specific information – except at the level of observation.     

Thermal Conductivity of Argillaceous Rocks: Determination Methodology Using In Situ Heating Tests

This study focuses on the characterisation of thermal conductivity for three potential host rocks for radioactive waste disposal. First, the heat conduction process is reviewed on the basis of an analytical solution and key aspects related to anisotropic conduction are discussed. Then the existing information on the three rocks is summarised and a broad uncertainty range of thermal conductivity is estimated based on the mineralogical composition. Procedures to backanalyse the thermal conductivity on the basis of in situ heating tests are assessed and a methodology is put forward. Finally, this methodology is used to estimate the impact of experimental uncertainties and applied to the four in situ heating tests. In the three potential host rocks, a clear influence of the bedding planes was identified and anisotropic heat conduction was shown to be necessary to interpret the observed temperature field. Experimental uncertainties were also shown to induce a larger uncertainty on the anisotropy ratio than on the equivalent thermal conductivity defined as the geometric mean of the thermal conductivity in the three principal directions.     

Effects of Soil Aging on Mechanical and Hydraulic Properties of a Silty Soil

The aging phenomenon, which produces changes in material state over time, is associated with significant modification of mechanical and physical soil properties. This change should be accounted for during geotechnical design. Although soils sometimes improve with aging, the opposite effect is occasionally observed. This paper describes a study performed to investigate the effect of aging on the mechanical behavior and the permeability of a silty soil. Undrained unconsolidated triaxial shear tests and triaxial permeability tests were performed on disturbed and compacted samples. Upon conclusion of these tests, the samples were sealed from air and moisture. The results show an important increase in both the undrained shear strength and the deformation modulus caused by silt rigidification during the aging process. These changes cause an over estimation of laboratory measured shear strength. For instance, the increase in the deformation modulus and undrained cohesion can approach 100 % for an approximate 328 day storage period. Sample permeability was found to decrease with aging. This reduction can be ascribed to several causes including micro-organisms growth, secondary sample consolidation and progressive filling caused by the migration of very fine particles. These phenomena might have negated the expected increase in permeability with aging time reported in the literature.     

A 70 ka record of explosive eruptions from the TALDICE ice core (Talos Dome,East Antarctic plateau)

The new Antarctic TALDICE ice core (72° 49′ S, 159° 11′ E, 1620 m depth), containing abundant primary tephras, provides the opportunity to elucidate the late Quaternary volcanic history of the south polar region, as well as to broaden the East Antarctic tephrostratigraphic framework. Here grain size and glass compositional data for representative tephra layers from the last 70 ka core section are used for source identification. Results point to origin of layers from centres of the Melbourne Volcanic Province (McMurdo Volcanic Group), located ～250 km from the coring site. Occurrence of tephra layers within the ice core record suggests that explosive activity in the identified source was not constant over the considered period, with a minimum of activity between 20 and 35 ka, and increased activity back to 65 ka. In addition to palaeovolcanic implications, the TALDICE tephra layers offer prospects for firm correlations between diverse widely separated palaeoarchives and for accurate dating of the Antarctic climatic record. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.