Parameter sensitivity of three Kalman filter schemes for assimilation of water levels in shelf sea models

In applications of data assimilation algorithms, a number of poorly known assimilation parameters usually need to be specified. Hence, the documented success of data assimilation methodologies must rely on a moderate sensitivity to these parameters. This contribution presents a parameter sensitivity study of three well known Kalman filter approaches for the assimilation of water levels in a three dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system. The filters considered are the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the reduced rank square root Kalman filter (RRSQRT) and the steady Kalman filter. A sensitivity analysis of key parameters in the schemes is undertaken for a setup in an idealised bay. The sensitivity of the resulting root mean square error (RMSE) is shown to be low to moderate. Hence the schemes are robust within an acceptable range and their application even with misspecified parameters is to be encouraged in this perspective. However, the predicted uncertainty of the assimilation results are sensitive to the parameters and hence must be applied with care. The sensitivity study further demonstrates the effectiveness of the steady Kalman filter in the given system as well as the great impact of assimilating even very few measurements.     

Aleksandr Georgievich Rozanov (on his 70th birthday)

Chronicle

Aleksandr Georgievich Rozanov (on his 70th birthday)     

Temperature fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer over the thermally inhomogeneous underlying surface

The influence of both spatial and temporal temperature inhomogeneities of the underlying surface on the temperature field in an unstably stratified atmospheric surface layer is considered. The methods of correlation and spectral analyses are proposed to estimate statistical characteristics of surface-air temperature fluctuations caused by both turbulent mixing and inhomogeneities in the temperature of the underlying surface. Analysis of experimental data obtained from measurements in the atmospheric surface layer yields estimates for the contribution made by the time-dependent thermal properties of the underlying surface to the total variance of air-temperature fluctuations. It is shown that the additional air-temperature fluctuations generated by surface-temperature inhomogeneities and unrelated to shear flow may reach 70% and 30% of the total variance of measured fluctuations under variable cloudiness and clear skies, respectively. For the height z = 2 m within the wave-number range 2 × 10^?3 rad m^?1 < k < 0.1 rad m^?1, the contribution made by a spatial surface-temperature inhomogeneity to the variance of air-temperature fluctuations does not exceed 10% of the total variance. Correlation and spectral analyses of experimental data make it possible to isolate the spectra of properly turbulent fluctuations from the measured fluctuations and thus to obtain more accurate values of the universal function of similarity theory for temperature in the range of small wave numbers beyond the inertial range.     

Nannoplankton of the Atlantic Ocean from sediment trap samples

Calcareous nannoplankton from sediment trap samples collected at six sites in the Atlantic Ocean from 23° S to 73° N (cruise 20 of R/V Vityaz’ and cruise 33 and 34 of R/V Akademik Mstislav Keldysh). Those samples were studied with a scanning electron microscope. In the coastal and open-sea regions of the North and South Atlantic and in the subarctic region of the Norwegian Sea, the conditions are significantly different. In the shelf area of the Benguela upwelling, 11 species were recognized; some of them were agglutinated by diatoms and tintinnides or covered the surface of pellets. The Broken Spur and TAG pelagic areas of the North Atlantic contained up to 43 coccolith species. They included holococcoliths, large pelagic, and delicate easily soluble species distributed over the entire water column. The presence of coccoliths in the high-latitude area of the Norwegian Sea is related to their supply with the warmer North Atlantic waters. These assemblages are distinguished by a low species diversity and an enhancement of the coccolith solubility with the depth increase.     

Analysis of solutions to the inverse problem on the retrieval of the microstructure of stratospheric aerosol from satellite measurements

A statistical ensemble of microphysical parameters of the background stratospheric aerosol at altitudes of 15 to 30 km is modeled on the basis of experimental data. The aerosol attenuation coefficients (AACs) in the wavelength range 0.38–16.3 μm are calculated for all realizations of the ensemble by algorithms of the Mie theory. Analysis of correlations between the AACs and the microphysical parameters indicate that the AAC correlates most strongly with the total volume V and area S of all particles. The errors of determining the microphysical parameters from AAC measurements are analyzed via the method of linear regression. It is shown that, if the AAC is measured with an error of 5%, the errors of determining both the particle size distribution (PSD) for particles with sizes of 0.4 to 4 μm and the parameter S are an order of magnitude smaller than the prior uncertainty, whereas the error of determining V is two orders of magnitude smaller than the prior uncertainty. Schemes of AAC measurements with the SAGE III, ISAMS, CLAES, HALOE instruments and an IR interferometer in the visible and IR regions are discussed. It is shown that combining the schemes makes it possible to extend the range of particle sizes for which the PSD is retrieved with a satisfactory accuracy and to increase the accuracy of determining S and V substantially and the accuracy of determining the total number of particles N _opt to a lesser extent. Examples of interpreting AAC measurements carried out simultaneously with the SAGE III and HALOE instruments within the same spatial region are presented. A systematic discrepancy between vertical profiles of S and V obtained from SAGE III and HALOE measurements is revealed.     

Combined numerical model of currents, waves, and sediment transport in Lake Donuzlav

We present a numerical model of the dynamics of Lake Donuzlav, which enables one to perform simultaneous numerical analyses of the currents, sea level, waves, and sediment transport. The model is based on the hydrodynamic block and the spectral wave model. For typical storm situations, we study the specific features of the integral circulation of waters and the three-dimensional structure of currents, investigate the wind-induced wave fields, and evaluate the flows of sediments and deformations of the bottom. The presence of intense eddy structures is revealed in the field of currents caused by the bottom topography. A significant intensification of waves in the south part of the lake is established in the case of penetration of storm waves through the strait. It is shown that the account of waves leads to qualitative changes in the structure of circulation in the lake and to the formation of well-pronounced areas of wave-induced elevations and lowerings of the sea level. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 43–65, March–April, 2006.     

Bottom foraminiferal assemblages in the Deryugin Basin (Sea of Okhotsk) during the past 26000 years

Benthic foraminifers from a core of bottom sediments obtained in the Deryugin Basin at a depth of 1750 m were examined. Three distinct benthic foraminiferal assemblages that replaced one another throughout the last 26000 years were recognized. The assemblage dominated by Alabaminella weddellensis, Uvigerina auberiana, and Cassidulina translucens dwelled here from 26 to 24 ky B.P. The sediments of the glacial period between 26 and 12.18 ky B.P. contain no benthic foraminifers. The composition of the sediments suggests the existence of active bottom vents of gas-bearing fluids during that time. The dominance of Brizalina spissa, Uvigerina peregrina, and Cassidulina laevigata is characteristic of the period from 12.18 to 7 ky B.P., when the productivity of the surface waters in the region was high, and warm, poorly oxygenated waters spread over the bottom of the basin. During the past 7 000 years, the bottom conditions in the sea were similar to the present-day conditions and an assemblage with the dominance of Gyroidina orbicularis, Uvigerina auberiana, and Cassidulina teretis developed in the region.     

Viscous model of plate tectonics for the Black Sea region (in relation to the problem of the late Cenozoic evolution of the Black Sea basins)

A numerical model of the Black Sea region (Northeastern Mediterranean) is presented in which it is regarded as a part of the mosaic plate ensemble consisting of the fixed East European platform; the active Arabian, Adriatic, and Pannonian plates; and passive East and West Black Sea and Mysian microplates, which are embedded in a plastically deformable regional orogenic matrix. The fields of displacements, stresses, and deformations in the region are calculated by means of the finite element method within the framework of a linear-viscous rheology approach to a system with nonhomogeneous viscosities. The velocity field obtained is in good agreement with published data of direct observations of plate displacements in the region. In the pressure field, areas of low pressure and decompression are established in the western part of Black Sea and in the south of the Mysian microplate. The poles of rotation of the East and West Black Sea microplates and of the Mysian microplate are computed. For the latter two microplates, significant rotational components are suggested. The East Black Sea microplate acts mostly as indenter, which transmits the collisional motion from the Arabian plate to the southern edge of the East European platform including the Crimea. According to the geodynamical model, the rates of the Cenozoic sedimentation in the Black Sea depression at the collision stage (Oligocene-Pliocene) result from the greater compression of the East Black Sea microplate as compared to the West Black Sea microplate, which, probably, experienced a kind of extension.     

The near field of internal waves after the moving area of atmospheric pressures

The near wave field generated by the travelling atmospheric pressure zone over a stratified fluid is studied within the framework of the linear theory of long waves allowing for the Coriolis force. The exact solution of the problem as a set of single integrals is deduced for the model distribution of pressures. The characteristics of the near wave field have been computed for the Väisälä-Brunt frequency profile takeu from observations. Their dependences on the geographical latitude and the wave generator travelling rate are analysed.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.