论海洋强国之战略抉择与实践路径

海洋强国是中国以两个"百年计划"为基础、以实现民族伟大复兴为目标,总结历史、立足当下、展望未来做出的重大战略抉择。海洋强国战略的推进是一个长期、宏大的系统工程,既要加强顶层设计,更要着力推动实践。文章从必然性和必要性两个角度论述了中国实施海洋强国战略的合理性、正当性,进而从意识养成、理念更新、制度完善、体制重构等4个层面提出了推进海洋强国战略的实践路径。     

Structure of the Upper Mantle and Transition Zone Beneath the South China Block Imaged by Finite Frequency Tomography

We applied the finite frequency tomography method to S wave data recorded by 350 broadband stations beneath the South China Block(SCB) and its surroundings from earthquakes occurring between July 2007 and July 2010,to better understand upper mantle deformation.Differential travel-times in the pair of stations with appropriate weighting for each station are used in the inversion.Our results are consistent with previous tomography that show a high velocity anomaly beneath the Sichuan basin and a high velocity anomaly in the transition zone beneath the Yangtze Craton.However,the resolution of mantle heterogeneity provides new insight into the tectonic framework of subduction of Burmese lithosphere in the west part of the study region and subduction of oceanic lithosphere in the east.In the subduction realm,west of 107°E,a significant fast S-wave anomaly is located on the southeast of Sichuan Basin.East of 107°E,and two narrow and discontinuous fast S-wave anomalies occur at a depth of 400-600 km beneath the middle of the South China block overlain by the pronounced low S-wave anomalies at a depth of 100 and 400 km.If the fast anomalies located in the mantle transition zone represent stagnant slabs,their fragmented nature may suggest that they could be produced by different episodes of subduction beneath western Pacific island and the above slow velocity anomaly may associated with the back-arc regions of ongoing subduction.In addition,tomography also reveals an anomalously high S-wave velocity continental root extends eastward to a depth 400 km beneath the eastern Sichuan Basin.This anomaly may be related to eastern extrusion of Indian lithosphere associated with the collision of India and Eurasia.Moreover,our results also show large slow anomalies beneath the Red River fault region connected to deeper anomalies beneath the South China Fold Belt and South China Sea.AH these observations are consistent with the scenario that the South China block has been built by both of subduction of Paleopacific plate and eastward subduction of Burma microplate.     

Runoff and water budget of the Liudaogou Catchment at the wind–water erosion crisscross region on the Loess Plateau of China

The objectives of this study were to examine the runoff characteristics and to estimate water budget at the wind–water erosion crisscross region on the Loess Plateau of China. A small catchment known as Liudaogou that has representative meteorological and hydrological conditions of the wind–water erosion crisscross region was chosen as the study location. A numerical model for rainfall-runoff was developed and verified; rainfall-runoff calculation for 5 years (2005–2009) was performed. The observed data and numerical result of the surface runoff were used for evaluating runoff characteristics and estimating the annual water budget. Runoff rate was proportional to average intensity of rain. Even though rainfall duration was for few minutes, surface runoff was generated by intensity of more than 2.6 mm × 5 min^?1, when rainfall duration exceeded 10 h; surface runoff was generated by an intensity of 0.6 mm × 5 min^?1, while annual runoff rate was 10–15 %. The unit area of 1 km² was adopted as the index area for estimating annual water budget. Runoff, evapotranspiration, variation of water storage, and habitant water consumption accounted for 20.4, 75.6, 0, and 4 % of the total annual precipitation, respectively. Results of this study provide the basis for further research on hydrology, water resources, and sustainable water development and utilization at the wind–water erosion crisscross region on the northern Loess Plateau where annual water resources are relatively deficient.     

Prophet-Elman残差改正电离层TEC短期预报模型

针对电离层TEC非线性、非平稳的特点,建立一种基于Prophet与Elman神经网络相结合的残差改正电离层短期预报模型。利用该模型对IGS提供的不同太阳活动程度期间的电离层TEC时间序列进行建模预报。结果显示,改正模型能够反映电离层TEC的变化特征,在太阳活动低年和太阳活动高年预报的平均相对精度分别为92.9%和92.2%,均方根误差分别为0.94 TECu和1.77 TECu,精度较Prophet-Elman模型及单一Elman模型有显著提高。     

汶川地震(Ms 8.0)地表破裂过程探讨

汶川地震(Ms8.0)形成了具逆冲兼右旋走滑性质的映秀-北川破裂带、纯逆冲性质的灌县-安县破裂带以及它们之间具左旋走滑-逆冲性质的小鱼洞破裂带,成为世界上迄今为止空间上分布最为复杂、长度最大的逆冲型地震地表破裂带.其地表破裂过程对理解发震机理具有重要的科学意义.文章根据地表破裂带的不同运动特性以及分段性,并结合不同地段同震断层擦痕行迹,探讨汶川地震地表破裂过程.通过详细分析,认为沿地表破裂带出现南北两个大的滑移量峰值,以及南北两段破裂带的几何分布和运动特性均不同,表明汶川地震是由南北两个次级破裂事件组成,这个结论与地震波数据反演结果一致,并根据八角庙和北川地区同震断层擦痕的运动学对比研究,推测汶川地震初期破裂以逆冲运动为主,沿映秀断裂和灌县-安县断裂,同时形成约100-80kin长近纯逆冲性质的映秀-清平段地表破裂带和灌县-安县地表破裂带,并且在这两条破裂带向NE方向扩展过程中形成了小鱼洞地表破裂带.由于南部初期破裂事件触发了北川断裂的活动,造成后期破裂事件的发生.后期破裂事件以右旋走滑(或右旋斜冲)运动为主,沿映秀-北川断裂形成龙池-深溪沟-八角庙-清平-擂鼓-北川-南坝-石坎等一线破裂带,该破裂带在映秀断裂带上叠加了第一次破裂事件形成的部分破裂带,整体地表破裂带南段(映秀-清平段)叠加了两次不同性质的破裂过程,北段(擂鼓-北川-南坝-石坎段)只反映了第一二次破裂事件的过程.所以,汶川地震地表破裂带中约270km长的映秀-北川破裂带具有逆冲兼右旋走滑性质,而约80km长的灌县-安县破裂带为纯逆冲性质.地震破裂过程是一动态复杂的物理过程,上述地表破裂模型可以解释两条不同性质破裂带的形成.但是否符合实际的地震破裂过程,还需要通过近台网地震波数据精细反演地震震源破裂过程的验证.     

基于紧耦合的视觉惯性定位方法

惯性测量单元(IMU)受自身温度、零偏、振动等因素干扰,积分时位姿容易发散,并且机器人快速移动时,单目视觉定位精度较差,为此研究了一种基于紧耦合的视觉惯性即时定位与地图构建(SLAM)方法.首先研究了视觉里程计(VO)定位问题,为减少特征点的误匹配,采用基于快速特征点提取和描述的算法(ORB)特征点的提取方法.然后构建...     

Impacts of seismic activity and climatic change on Chinese history in the recent millennium

General history of disasters in China suggests that China has frequently experienced two major natural disasters in its long history, one is from catastrophic earthquake events, and the other is from extreme climatic events, due to its unique active tectonic environment and climatic complexity. Although these two major natural disasters have caused great damage to human society, it remains unclear whether and how they affect Chinese dynasty alternation on decadal(emperor) timescales. Based on de...     

塔克拉玛干沙漠沙垄起伏地形夏季地表温度差异特征

摘 要：开展塔克拉玛干沙漠沙垄起伏地形夏季地表温度观测试验，旨在为塔克拉玛干沙漠环境陆面过程研究提供科学依据。2019年6月7日至9月2日在塔中地区，沿沙垄迎风坡以及背风坡底部、中部、上部、顶点及垄间谷地共设8个地表温度观测点。结果表明：（1）夏季沙垄地表温度最高温出现在垄间谷地，为74.63 ℃，最低温出现在迎风坡底部，为10.52 ℃；地表温度一天中在7:00左右达到最低，15:00左右达到最高。（2）晴天、多云以及浮尘天各观测点地表温度日均变化曲线呈单峰型，降水、扬沙及沙尘暴天呈双峰型；地表温度的最高温与日均值最大值均出现在晴天的垄间谷地，地表温度的最低温及日均值最小值均出现在降水天的迎风坡底部。（3）沙垄顶点与两个底部最大温差范围是顶点与背风坡底部在晴天的温差范围，为0～18.62 ℃，最小温差范围是顶点与迎风坡底部在降水天的温差范围，为0.01～6.18 ℃；迎风坡和背风坡在晴天地表温度温差范围最大，为0.01～16.93 ℃，在降水天温差范围最小，为0.01～4.15 ℃；顶点与两个底部夏季综合温差范围在0～18.62 ℃，迎风坡与背风坡夏季综合温差范围为0～16.93 ℃。塔克拉玛干沙漠地表温度受典型天气影响变化类型多样，沙垄顶点与底部、迎风坡与背风坡地表温度差异受风力及地形作用明显。     

Millennial- to centennial-scale anti-phase relationship between the Westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon and its cultural response along the Silk Roads after a great earthquake in southern Altay ~ 3500 cal a BP

It is strongly debated whether the Westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are in-phase, anti-phase or out-of-phase, and how hydroclimatic changes in the above two climate systems affected trans-Eurasian cultural exchanges during the late Holocene. In this study, we establish a 3500-a-long paleoclimatic sequence based on high-resolution analyses of sedimentological and geochemical data of a well-dated sediment core from Yileimu Lake in southern Altay. High percentages of the >63-µm fraction and high values of Zr/Rb and Rb/Sr ratios indicate strong transport of weakly weathered, coarse sediments into the depocenter of the lake caused by enhanced surface runoff and catchment erosion associated with a wet climate, and vice versa. High values of Ca and total inorganic carbon (TIC) contents imply increased precipitation of endogenic carbonates in the lake water under intense evaporation associated with a dry climate, and vice versa. This new record indicates two wet intervals at 3500–2300 and 600–100 cal a bp , interrupted by a severe and prolonged dry interval from 2300 to 1000 cal a bp , and a mild dry interval with occasionally wet conditions from 1000 to 600 cal a bp. These results are broadly consistent with other paleoclimatic records in Westerlies-dominated Asia and are generally anti-phase with those in the EASM region. We suggest that a strengthening/weakening and southward/northward migration of the Westerlies during a negative/positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) transported more/less water vapor into arid Asia. Meanwhile, a decreasing/increasing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) superimposed on a southward/northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) triggered a weakening/strengthening and southward/northward movement of the West-Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), resulting in decreasing/increasing EASM intensity. In addition, the wet climate from 3500 to 2300 cal a bp may have contributed to the development of nomadic herding in the eastern Eurasian Steppe and Altay region, and to the opening of the proto-Silk Roads. Potentially, intense seismic activities in the Altay Mountains ~3500 cal a bp may have also promoted the opening of the proto-Silk Roads by forcing the herdsmen to move to the inter-mountainous basins. The strong EASM intensity from 2300 to 1000 cal a bp in eastern China may have contributed to the creation of the ancient Silk Roads by the Han Dynasty.