Estimating open boundary conditions from coastal tidal observations by adjoint approach

A numerical study for estimating the tidal open boundary conditions of a shelf current modrl from tb coastal tidal observations is presented. The method is based on the optimal control/adjoint method. A lrast square fitting of the model state to simulated data is used. Two ideal domains and coastlines are considered. Using the IAP shallow. water model and its adjoint model, some identical twin experiments are carried out to test efficiency and lirnilsd of the method. The results show that the adjoint method can efficiently estimate the open boundary conditions well for gulf/bay like domains. The adjoint method seems to have great potential to improve the accuracy of tide and shelf current modeling in coastal regions. Project supported hy the National Natural Science Fuundation of China (Grant No. 49376256)     

The biaxial compression mechanical properties of crushed rock

Crushed rock subgrade, as one of the roadbed-cooling methods, has been widely used in the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Much attention has been paid on the cooling effect of crushed rock; however, the mechanical properties of crushed rock are somehow neglected. Based on the discrete element method, biaxial compression test condition for crushed rock is compiled in FISH language in PFC^2D, and the natural shape of crushed rock is simulated with super particle "cluster". The effect of particle size, crushed rock strength and confining pressure level on overall mechanical properties of the crushed rock aggregate are respectively analyzed. Results show that crushed rock of large particle size plays an essential framework role, which is mainly responsible for the deformation of crushed rock aggregate. The strength of gravel has a great influence on overall mechanical properties which means that strength attenuation caused by the freeze thaw cycles cannot be ignored. The stress-strain curves can be divided into two stages including shear contraction and shear expansion at different confining pressures.     

低纬和中高纬度火山爆发与我国旱涝的联系

根据５００年旱涝等级资料，采用时序迭加方法，分析了低纬和中高纬火山爆发对我国降水的影响。此外，还对１６００－１９７９年南方涛动指数的变化进行了类似的分析。结果表明，低纬和中高纬火山爆发发后全国旱涝分布型和部分地区降水变化趋势有很大差异。爆发当年华北就可能明显变旱，而次年长江流域才出现明显的降水异常。计算不明，１９９１年皮纳图博火山及去仙岳火山爆发与江淮特大洪涝有直接联系的可能性不大。     

青藏高原地表反照率计算研究

根据改进的甚高分辨率扫描辐射仪（ＡＶＨＲＲ）５个观测波段的光谱特征，经多次试验，设计了一组从卫星观测的地－气系统的辐射测值中提取晴空资料的多通道门槛值判识法和提取月平均反照率的合成法；并对１９９２年ＮＯＡＡ－１２卫星获取的ＡＶＨＲＲ资料进行计算处理，分析提取晴空数据，在此基础上按卫星轨道覆盖周期合成计算得到的晴空行星反照率和地表反照率，并且计算了逐月的地表反照率。对计算结果做了初步分析和认真比较。     

多普勒雷达资料在暴雨临近预报中的应用

以天气雷达体积扫描的资料为基础,采用交叉相关法建立了一种对暴雨的临近预报方法。该方法的基本思路是：将第一时刻取得的雷达回波图像,向任一方向移过一定的距离,然后计算此图像与第二时刻图像之间的交叉相关系数,直到找到极大值,利用该极大值所对应的位移来预报下一时刻降水的位置。并利用“973”中国暴雨试验获得的观测资料对该方法进行了验证,验证结果表明：交叉相关法对暴雨有一定的预报能力,预报雨带的移动方向与雷达实际观测的移动方向相吻合,但其预报能力随着预报时间的增加而减弱。     

江西贵溪盆地罗塘群沉积体系特征及其地质意义

早白垩世晚期江西贵溪盆地的控盆断裂活动加强,在盆地边缘的不同地带及盆地中心发育有不同的沉积体系,野外露头岩相特征和剖面的研究表明,贵溪盆地罗塘群主要发育有冲积扇体系、扇三角洲体系、辫状河三角洲体系、湖泊沉积体系及辫状河沉积体系,沉积体系特征主要受控于盆缘断裂活动,不同的沉积体系出现在盆地演化的不同阶段,并由不同的岩相组成.沉积体系的特征、分布及组合型式反映了陆相断陷红盆沉积相带窄、横向及纵向上相变快的特点.     

Strength of Stacking Technique of Ensemble Learning in Rockburst Prediction with Imbalanced Data: Comparison of Eight Single and Ensemble Models

Rockburst is a common dynamic geological hazard, severely restricting the development and utilization of underground space and resources. As the depth of excavation and mining increases, rockburst tends to occur frequently. Hence, it is necessary to carry out a study on rockburst prediction. Due to the nonlinear relationship between rockburst and its influencing factors, artificial intelligence was introduced. However, the collected data were typically imbalanced. Single algorithms trained by such data have low recognition for minority classes. In order to handle the problem, this paper employed stacking technique of ensemble learning to establish rockburst prediction models. In total, 246 sets of data were collected. In the preprocessing stage, three data mining techniques including principal component analysis, local outlier factor and expectation maximization algorithm were used for dimension reduction, outlier detection and outlier substitution, respectively. Then, the pre-processed data were split into a training set (75%) and a test set (25%) with stratified sampling. Based on the four classical single intelligent algorithms, namely k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), deep neural network (DNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN), four ensemble models (KNN–RNN, SVM–RNN, DNN–RNN and KNN–SVM–DNN–RNN) were built by stacking technique of ensemble learning. The prediction performance of eight models was evaluated, and the differences between single models and ensemble models were analyzed. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted, revealing the importance of input variables on the models. Finally, the impact of class imbalance on the prediction accuracy and fitting effect of models was quantitatively discussed. The results showed that stacking technique of ensemble learning provides a new and promising way for rockburst prediction, which exhibits unique advantages especially when using imbalanced data.

     

四川盆地：周缘活动主控下形成的叠合盆地

四川盆地位于扬子板块西缘和青藏高原东缘,地震勘探资料等揭示盆地前寒武纪基底保存完整的古俯冲带和地堑-地垒结构,说明盆地基底后期构造活动非常稳定;显生宙以来经历晚震旦世-石炭纪、二叠纪-中三叠世两幕克拉通边缘强拉张-强挤压,而克拉通内弱拉张-弱挤压的构造演化过程,体现出盆地内部稳定性结构沉积演化特征。克拉通内弱拉张初期以海相碳酸盐岩大面积稳定沉积（即震旦系灯影组和二叠系栖霞-茅口组）和随后的风化壳岩溶作用（即桐湾期、东吴期等不整合面）为特征,弱拉张期以拉张槽（如：绵阳-长宁拉张槽和开江-梁平拉张槽等）的形成为典型特征;弱挤压则以古隆起（如：加里东期乐山-龙女寺古隆起、印支期泸州古隆起等）的发育为典型特征。四川盆地晚三叠世后的前陆盆地演化阶段受控于其周缘造山带逆冲推覆构造活动,是现今地貌和构造盆地的主要建造期,形成了四川盆地周缘突变（线型）和渐变（弥散型）两种盆山结构。盆地西边界（龙门山）和北边界（米仓山-大巴山）即是线型突变边界,也是扬子地块（板块）的边界,边界几何形状和扬子板块刚性特征对盆山系统结构-构造特征等有较大的控制作用;四川盆地的东边界（齐岳山-大娄山）和西南边界（大凉山）即是渐变弥散型边界,同时也是板（陆）块内部的边界,它们受控于邻区（盆外）的构造变形和盆内沉积盖层中滑脱层的分布特征。受控于盆地（克拉通）周缘活动,四川盆地垂向上前寒武纪基底与盖层、盖层内早期和晚期构造具解耦特征。基底与盖层构造的解耦有利于盆地内部前寒武纪基底结构构造的保存和盖层内大型隆-坳结构的形成演化;盖层内早期和晚期构造的解耦有利于早期构造免遭后期破环,对深层油气藏的保存意义重大。总之,四川盆地可能是具独特形成过程和特征的叠合盆地新类型,其突出特征表现为周缘活动、内部稳定及早期和晚期构造解耦。     

老黑山火山碎屑降落堆积物研究

由中心式喷发形成的老黑山火山碎屑降落堆积物，主要是玄武质火山渣、火山弹、火山饼和少量岩屑。在火山爆发自身能量和北北西风的影响下，形成高耸的火山渣锥和向南南东展布的低缓的火山碎屑席地貌景观。区域上系统测量了火山碎屑席中火山碎屑的厚度、最大平均粒径、分选系数和中值粒径，均呈现规律性变化；剖面层序则反映老黑山火山经过两个大喷发阶段，多次脉动式喷发。经估算，老黑山火山碎屑席中火山碎屑量比火山渣锥中要少得多，老黑山火山碎屑属“建造火山锥”火山碎屑沉积。据投点，老黑山火山喷发属斯通博里型。老黑山、火烧山火山仍有再次爆发的可能。未来火山喷发的潜在危险主要来自火山喷发空落堆积物。老黑山、火烧山火山的南东、东和南，包括五大连池市在内有必要对未来火山爆发加以防范。     

荒漠绿洲湿地土壤水热盐动态过程及其影响机制

以甘肃临泽荒漠绿洲湿地为研究对象,通过对土壤温度、含水量、电导率及蒸散量的野外观测,在植物生长期和冻融期分别深入分析水热盐耦合运移过程及其影响因素,探讨水热梯度对盐分运移及其分布格局的控制作用。结果表明：土壤温度整体呈现出春夏季逐渐升高、秋冬季降低趋势。在冻结期,土壤表现为脱盐状态,表层电导率由2.8 mS·cm^-1降到1.2 mS·cm^-1;而在消融期为积盐状态,表层电导率由1.2 mS·cm^-1升到3.7 mS·cm^-1。在生长期,土壤含水量和电导率波动较为剧烈,表层含水量27%~43%,表层电导率3~5.5 mS·cm^-1,土壤脱盐、积盐反复出现。全年蒸散量总体呈单峰变化趋势,年蒸散量507 mm;土壤电导率与蒸散量呈正比关系,与地下水位呈负相关关系;蒸散发作用是土壤表层积盐的主要驱动力,而地下水波动影响着湿地脱盐、洗盐过程。因此,荒漠绿洲湿地土壤盐分累积过程是水分运移和热量传输过程发生变化的结果。