新疆克孜尔水库形变前兆异常的初步研究

对克孜尔水库蓄水前１８ 年的水准、基线测量资料进行研究认为：水准高差正常年变形态的消失是趋势性前兆异常的表现;震前半年左右测值曲线出现较大幅度的上下跳动,或呈台阶状大幅度下降,或出现直线状的“静止不变”异常,则是短临异常的主要特点。研究中发现：（１）异常的形态可能与断层运动的方式和状态有关;（２）异常幅度、异常持续时间与之后发生的中强震的强度及频度有一定关系;（３）近距离强震发生前,断层垂直位移有明显异常,而较远处强震发生前则地表倾斜异常较明显。基线测量没有观测到与水准相呼应的前兆异常     

Diagenetic fluid evolution and water-rock interaction model of carbonate cements in sandstone: An example from the reservoir sandstone of the Fourth Member of the Xujiahe Formation of the Xiaoquan-Fenggu area,Sichuan Province,China

Carbonate cement is the most abundant cement type in the Fourth Member of the Xujiahe Formation in the Xiaoquan-Fenggu area of the West Sichuan Depression. Here we use a systematic analysis of carbonate cement petrology, mineralogy, carbon and oxygen isotope ratios and enclosure homogenization temperatures to study the precipitation mechanism, pore fluid evolution, and distribution of different types of carbonate cement in reservoir sand in the study area. Crystalline calcite has relatively heavy carbon and oxygen isotope ratios(δ13C = 2.14‰, δ18O = -5.77‰), and was precipitated early. It was precipitated directly from supersaturated alkaline fluid under normal temperature and pressure conditions. At the time of precipitation, the fluid oxygen isotope ratio was very light, mainly showing the characteristics of a mixed meteoric water-seawater fluid(δ18O = -3‰), which shows that the fluid during precipitation was influenced by both meteoric water and seawater. The calcite cement that fills in the secondary pores has relatively lighter carbon and oxygen isotope ratios(δ13C = -2.36‰, δ18O = -15.68‰). This cement was precipitated late, mainly during the Middle and Late Jurassic. An important material source for this carbonate cement was the feldspar corrosion process that involved organic matter. The Ca2+, Fe3+ and Mg2+ ions released by the clay mineral transformation process were also important source materials. Because of water-rock interactions during the burial process, the oxygen isotope ratio of the fluid significantly increased during precipitation, by about 3‰. The dolomite cements in calcarenaceous sandstone that was precipitated during the Middle Jurassic have heavier carbon and oxygen isotope ratios, which are similar to those of carbonate debris in the sandstone(δ13C = 1.93‰, δ18O = -6.11‰), demonstrating that the two are from the same source that had a heavier oxygen isotope ratio(δ18O of about 2.2‰). The differences in fluid oxygen isotope ratios during cement precipitation reflect the influences of different water-rock interaction systems or different water-rock interaction strengths. This is the main reason why the sandstone containing many rigid particles(lithic quartz sandstone) has a relatively negative carbon isotope ratio and why the precipitation fluid in calcarenaceous sandstone has a relatively heavier oxygen isotope ratio.     

Characteristics and accumulation mechanisms of the Dongfang 13-1 high temperature and overpressured gas field in the Yinggehai Basin,the South China Sea

The Dongfang 13-1 is located in the diapiric structure belt of the Yinggehai Basin. The formation pressure of its main gas reservoir in the Miocene Huangliu Formation is up to 54.6 MPa(pressure coefficient=1.91) and the temperature is as high as 143°C(geothermal gradient 4.36°C/100 m), indicating that it is a typical high-temperature and overpressured gas reservoir. The natural gas is interpreted to be coal-type gas derived from the Miocene mature source rocks containing type II2-III kerogens as evidenced by high dryness index of up to 0.98 and heavy carbon isotopes, i.e., the δ13C1 ranging from -30.76‰ to -37.52‰ and δ13C2 ranging from -25.02‰ to -25.62‰. The high temperature and overpressured Miocene petroleum system is related mainly to diapir in the Yinggehai Basin and contains more pore water in the overpressured reservoirs due to undercompaction process. The experimental and calculated results show that the solubility of natural gas in formation water is as high as 10.5 m3/m3 under the temperature and pressure conditions of the Sanya Formation, indicating that at least part of the gas may migrate in the form of water-soluble phase. Meanwhile, the abundant gas source in the Basin makes it possible for the rapid saturation of natural gas in formation water and exsolution of soluble gas. Therefore, the main elements controlling formation of the Dongfang 13-1 gas pool include that(1) the diapir activities and accompanying changes in temperature and pressure accelerate the water-soluble gas exsolution and release a lot of free gas;(2) submarine fan fine sandstone in the Huangliu Formation provides good gas-water segregation and accumulation space; and(3) the overlying overpressured mud rocks act as effective caps. The accumulation mechanism reveals that the high temperatural and high pressure structure belt near the diapir structures has a good potential for large and medium-sized gas field exploration.     

An assembly model for simulation of large-scale ground water flow and transport

When managing large-scale ground water contamination problems, it is often necessary to model flow and transport using finely discretized domains--for instance (1) to simulate flow and transport near a contamination source area or in the area where a remediation technology is being implemented; (2) to account for small-scale heterogeneities; (3) to represent ground water-surface water interactions; or (4) some combination of these scenarios. A model with a large domain and fine-grid resolution will need extensive computing resources. In this work, a domain decomposition-based assembly model implemented in a parallel computing environment is developed, which will allow efficient simulation of large-scale ground water flow and transport problems using domain-wide grid refinement. The method employs common ground water flow (MODFLOW) and transport (RT3D) simulators, enabling the solution of almost all commonly encountered ground water flow and transport problems. The basic approach partitions a large model domain into any number of subdomains. Parallel processors are used to solve the model equations within each subdomain. Schwarz iteration is applied to match the flow solution at the subdomain boundaries. For the transport model, an extended numerical array is implemented to permit the exchange of dispersive and advective flux information across subdomain boundaries. The model is verified using a conventional single-domain model. Model simulations demonstrate that the proposed model operated in a parallel computing environment can result in considerable savings in computer run times (between 50% and 80%) compared with conventional modeling approaches and may be used to simulate grid discretizations that were formerly intractable.     

Delayed baroclinic response of the Antarctic circumpolar current to surface wind stress

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) responds to the surface windstress via two processes, i.e., the instant barotropic process and the delayed baroclinic process. This study focuses on the baroclinic instability mechanism in ACC, which was less reported in the literatures. Results show that the strengthening of surface zonal windstress causes the enhanced tilting of the isopycnal surface, leading to more intense baroclinic instability. Simultaneously, the mesoscale eddies resulting from the baro- clinic instability facilitate the transformation of mean potential energy to eddy energy, which causes the remarkable decrease of the ACC volume transport with the 2-year lag time. This delayed negative cor- relation between the ACC transport and the zonal windstress may account for the steadiness of the ACC transport during last two decades.     

Risk management of BTEX contamination in ground water--an integrated fuzzy approach

An integrated fuzzy simulation-assessment method (FSAM) was developed for assessing environmental risks from petroleum hydrocarbon contamination in ground water. In the FSAM, techniques of fuzzy simulation and fuzzy risk assessment were coupled into a general framework to reflect a variety of system uncertainties. A petroleum-contaminated site located in western Canada was selected as a study case for demonstrating applicability of the proposed method. The risk assessment results demonstrated that system uncertainties would significantly impact expressions of risk-level outputs. A relatively deterministic expression of the risks would have clearer representations of the study problem but may miss valuable uncertain information; conversely, an assessment under vaguer system conditions would help reveal potential consequences of adverse effects but would suffer from a higher degree of fuzziness in presenting the modeling outputs. Based on the risk assessment results, a decision analysis procedure was used to calculate a general risk index (GRI) to help identify proper responsive actions. The proposed method was useful for evaluating risks within a system containing multiple factors with complicated uncertainties and interactions and providing support for identifying proper site management strategies.     

A finite element solution for the fractional advection–dispersion equation

The fractional advection–dispersion equation (FADE) known as its non-local dispersion, has been proven to be a promising tool to simulate anomalous solute transport in groundwater. We present an unconditionally stable finite element (FEM) approach to solve the one-dimensional FADE based on the Caputo definition of the fractional derivative with considering its singularity at the boundaries. The stability and accuracy of the FEM solution is verified against the analytical solution, and the sensitivity of the FEM solution to the fractional order α and the skewness parameter β is analyzed. We find that the proposed numerical approach converge to the numerical solution of the advection–dispersion equation (ADE) as the fractional order α equals 2. The problem caused by using the first- or third-kind boundary with an integral-order derivative at the inlet is remedied by using the third-kind boundary with a fractional-order derivative there. The problems for concentration estimation at boundaries caused by the singularity of the fractional derivative can be solved by using the concept of transition probability conservation. The FEM solution of this study has smaller numerical dispersion than that of the FD solution by Meerschaert and Tadjeran (J Comput Appl Math 2004). For a given α, the spatial distribution of concentration exhibits a symmetric non-Fickian behavior when β = 0. The spatial distribution of concentration shows a Fickian behavior on the left-hand side of the spatial domain and a notable non-Fickian behavior on the right-hand side of the spatial domain when β = 1, whereas when β = −1 the spatial distribution of concentration is the opposite of that of β = 1. Finally, the numerical approach is applied to simulate the atrazine transport in a saturated soil column and the results indicat that the FEM solution of the FADE could better simulate the atrazine transport process than that of the ADE, especially at the tail of the breakthrough curves.     

How do streamflow generation mechanisms affect watershed hypsometry?

Several studies have shown that the dominant streamflow generation mechanism in a river basin can leave distinct geomorphological signatures in basin topography. In particular, it has been suggested previously that basins generated by groundwater discharge tend to have a larger hypsometric integral than surface runoff basins because fluvial erosion is more focused in the valleys where groundwater discharge tends to occur. In this analysis, we aim to clarify this relationship by developing an alternative method to quantify the effects of streamflow generation mechanisms on basin hypsometry and by using a numerical model that can generate streamflow by different processes to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the hydrological and geomorphological properties of the basin. The model results suggest that the hypsometric characteristics that are usually associated with groundwater discharge basins, such as a larger hypsometric integral, occur primarily when drainage networks are still advancing in the watershed. During later stages of development, an additional factor such as lithological controls or a distinct geomorphological process would be needed to preserve these features. The model results also show that the hypsometric effects are stronger when the parameters of the fluvial erosion process promote the influence of small discharge rates. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Upper Limit Size of Reservoir-Induced Earthquakes

We showed the relation between the magnitude of induced earthquake and the reservoir storage and dam height based on the global catalog from 1967 to 1989 compiled by Ding Yuanzhang （1989）. By multiplying reservoir storage with dam height, we introduced a new parameter named EE. We found that the cases with specific EE and magnitude do not exceed a limit. Based on the discussion of its physics, we called EE the equivalent energy. We considered this limit as the upper limit of magnitude for reservoir-induced earthquakes. The result was proved by the recent cases occurring in China. This size limitation can be used as a helpful consideration for reservoir design.     

Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam

The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. “Cold” extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while “warm” extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.