神经网络方法在地震预报研究中的初步应用

本文把神经网络方法引进地震预报研究当中。使用地震频次，最大震级，平均震级，等价地震次数等多项地震活动性指标作为神经网络的输入，未来时段内的最大地震震级作为其输出，可以对某一固定地区的最大地震震级作出中近期预报。选用的神经网络模型为含两个中间层的前向模型，并采用ＢＰ算法。所得结果表明，用神经网络方法可以在一定精度范围内使震级预报的内检符合率达到１００％，在本文的例子中，外推预报准确率达到６０％以上。     

酒西盆地青南凹陷柳沟庄-窟窿山地区下白垩统震积岩的发现及意义

在甘肃省酒西盆地青南凹陷柳沟庄-窟窿山地区下白垩统下沟组及中沟组地层序列中,首次发现发育一套地震事件沉积物,是一套含微裂缝或同生变形构造及振动液化泄水构造等震积特征的泥质白云岩、白云质泥岩及泥质粉砂岩的组合.本区震积作用及震积岩的主要识别标志为振动液化卷曲变形及其伴生构造、重荷模及伴生构造、脆性和塑性两类沉积物相间的滑塌变形作用及滑塌岩、软沉积物的液化作用及泄水构造、层内阶梯状断层及地裂缝.柳沟庄-窟窿山地区下白垩统震积岩的发现,填补了本区震积岩研究的空白,反映了本区在早白垩世存在一个强烈的构造活动时期,可以推测其影响范围可能还会波及青南凹陷的其他地区,也有望在酒西盆地类似环境的其他凹陷发现震积岩,开辟震积岩研究的新领域.区域构造背景的研究同样表明,青南凹陷青西Ⅰ号同生断裂带及509断阶带的强烈构造活动正是本区早白垩世震积作用的直接诱发因素,为本区震积岩的存在提供了科学依据.     

Quantifying temporal changes in Tornionjoki river ice breakup dates and spring temperatures in Lapland since 1802

Cryophenological records （i.e. observational series of freeze and breakup dates of ice） are of great importance when assessing the environmental variations in cold regions. Here we employed the extraordinarily long observational records of river ice breakup dates and air temperatures in northern Fennoscandia to examine their interrelations since 1802. Historical observations, along with modern data, comprise the informational setting for this analysis carried out using t-test. Temperature history of April-May season was used as cli- matic counterpart for the breakup timings. Both records （temperature and breakup） showed seven sub-periods during which their local means were distinctly different relative to preced- ing and subsequent sub-periods. The starting and ending years of these sub-periods oc- curred in temporal agreement. The main findings of this study are summarized as follows： （1） the synchrony between the temperature and river ice breakup records ruled out the possibility that the changes would have occurred due to quality of the historical series （i.e. inhomoge- neity problems often linked to historical time-series）; （2） the studied records agreed to show lower spring temperatures and later river ice breakups during the 19th century, in comparison to the 20th century conditions, evidencing the prevalence of cooler spring temperatures in the study region, in agreement with the concept of the Little Ice Age （1570-1900） climate in North-West Europe; （3） the most recent sub-period demonstrate the highest spring tem- peratures with concomitantly earliest river ice breakups, showing the relative warmth of the current springtime climate in the study region in the context of the past two centuries; （4） the effects of anthropogenic changes in the river environment （e.g. construction and demolition of dams） during the 20th century should be considered for non-climatic variations in the breakup records; （5） this study emphasizes the importance of multi-centurial （i.e. historical） cryo- phenological information for highly interesting viewpoints of climate and environmental his- tory.     

Aseismic negative dislocation model and deformation analysis of crustal horizontal movement during 1999——2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block

Through numerical simulation for GPS data, aseism/c negative dislocation model for crustal horizontal movement during 1999-2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block is presented, combined with the spatial distri-bution of apparent strain field in this area, the characteristics of motion and deformation of active blocks and their boundary faults, together with the place and intensity of strain accumulation are analyzed. It is shown that: a) 9 active blocks appeared totally clockwise motion from eastward by north to eastward by south. Obvious sinistral strike-slip and NE-NEE relative compressive motion between the blocks separated by Qilianshan-Haiyuan fault zone was discovered; b) 20 fault segments (most of them showed compression) locked the relative motion between blocks to varying degrees, among the total, the mid-east segment of Qilianshan fault (containing the place where it meets Riyueshan-Lajishan fault) and the place where it meets Haiyuan fault and Zhuanglanghe fault, more favored accumulation of strain. Moreover, the region where Riyueshan-Lajishan fault meets north boundary of Qaidam block may have strain accumulation to some degree, c) Obtained magnitude of block velocities and locking of their boundaries were less than relevant results for observation in the period of 1993-1999.     

汤渡河大坝爆破振动及混凝土声波检测

运用爆破振动测试与混凝土声波检测相结合的方法,对汤渡河水库大坝混凝土拆除爆破进行了有效的控制,在保证大坝安全的前提下,大大加快了施工进度,是一种行之有效的方法,对同类工程有较大的借鉴作用。     

双坡面临空岩质边坡滑动破坏模式下的稳定性分析

多数岩质边坡稳定性分析已基本解决了常走向单坡面临空的边坡平面滑动问题。然而,在路堑边坡工程和自然边坡中有很多边坡坡面并不是平面,它包含多个坡面。多坡面边坡包含两个或多个不同走向的坡面。多坡面边坡几何特征不同于单坡面边坡,所以滑动条件也不一样。在赤平投影图上,多坡面的滑动包络线是组成边坡的每个坡面单独投影包络线的组合。为了探讨方便,只讨论了双坡面临空岩质边坡的滑动破坏模式,并将其分为双坡面临空下的平面破坏和楔形体破坏。在赤平投影图上,双坡面滑动区域定义为双坡面边坡滑动包络图中两侧坡面的真倾线之间的面积。如果有一两个节理面真倾向线落在滑动区内,滑动破坏才可能发生。     

地震海洋学研究进展

传统船舶调查获取海洋水体温盐资料的方法在水平方向上分辨率较低,而用反射地震探测海洋水体特性的方法--地震海洋学,能有效提高海水温盐资料在水平方向上的分辨率.概述了近5年来地震海洋学的发展过程,重点介绍了地震海洋学方法在海洋锋面观测、水团边界划分、海洋内波分析、中尺度涡旋等方面的研究成果,以及AVO、全波形反演等反射地震处理方法在海洋水体特性研究中的应用.比较了地震海洋学方法与声层析技术、高频声技术等声学方法应用于海洋水体特性研究的异同.并展望了下一步研究工作的重点:①有关地震反射剖面的各种参数与海洋水体温盐结构物理模型的联系及其定量分析;②以研究海洋水体特性为目标的地震反射剖面的处理方法;③海洋地震调查历史数据的应用.     

国内外岩浆岩数据库现状与应用前景

超过三分之二的地壳岩石是由来自深部的岩浆作用形成,岩浆岩记录的信息是深时数字地球(Deep-time Digital Earth,DDE)特别是深部过程研究的重要载体。岩浆岩分布范围广,样品众多,分析、定年相对方便和精确,易于数据累积。在过去的十多年,全球科学家建立了EarthChem、GEOROC、DataView等多个优秀的岩浆岩数据库。随着大数据时代的到来,地球科学也在经历向地球系统科学的重大转变。如何进一步整合分散在研究机构和个人手中的越来越多的数据,建立能服务大数据和人工智能方法的数据平台,推动地球科学研究由理论驱动的传统因果推理方法向数据驱动的大数据方法转变,是新的很有希望的突破点。文章系统介绍了目前国内外已有的岩浆岩相关数据库及其运行情况,为未来DDE计划整合全球海量岩浆岩数据,建设开放、共享、统一的大数据平台提供经验和基础。同时,也列举了以岩浆岩大数据驱动的科学研究的典型实例,并结合DDE相关任务,对利用岩浆岩大数据和人工智能进一步解决四维地球深部圈层物质构成、交换与动力学这一关键科学问题提出新的展望。     

北京潭柘寺地区第四纪冰川遗迹的宏观和微观特征

以北京西山潭柘寺地区第四纪冰川遗迹的宏观特征研究为基础,对管坨岭冰期和赵家台冰期的古冰川沉积进行了石英颗粒表面结构形貌组合特征的分析。结果表明,管坨岭冰期的管坨岭冰碛层和大富庄冰碛层,以及赵家台冰期的太平庄冰碛层中的石英颗粒表面结构,以冰川成因的形貌组合占优势,而赵家台冰期鲁家滩冰水沉积中的石英颗粒表面结构,则以冰川和流水共有成因的形貌占优势。所以,据冰川遗迹的宏观和微观特征,可以肯定该区分别在早更新世和中更新世曾发育过两次古冰川作用。