Mapping hourly dynamics of urban population using trajectories reconstructed from mobile phone records

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban population is crucial for addressing a wide range of urban planning and management issues. Aggregated geospatial big data have been widely used to quantitatively estimate population distribution at fine spatial scales over a given time period. However, it is still a challenge to estimate population density at a fine temporal resolution over a large geographical space, mainly due to the temporal asynchrony of population movement and the challenges to acquiring a complete individual movement record. In this article, we propose a method to estimate hourly population density by examining the time‐series individual trajectories, which were reconstructed from call detail records using BP neural networks. We first used BP neural networks to predict the positions of mobile phone users at an hourly interval and then estimated the hourly population density using log‐linear regression at the cell tower level. The estimated population density is linearly correlated with population census data at the sub‐district level. Trajectory clustering results show five distinct diurnal dynamic patterns of population movement in the study area, revealing spatially explicit characteristics of the diurnal commuting flows, though the driving forces of the flows need further investigation.     

西藏当雄九子拉地区石炭系诺错组中震积岩的发现及意义

西藏当雄九子拉地区石炭系诺错组地层序列中,首次发现了一套非正常沉积的粉砂岩和灰岩的组合.岩系中可识别出非正常的沉积构造,即微同沉积断裂、火焰状构造、同生变形构造及振动液化泄水构造等,这一软沉积变形构造具震积岩的识别标志特征,代表灾变事件震积的地质记录.在剖面结构上大致显示为7个单元的震积序列,自下而上由下伏弱震层(A)—液化脉(B)—震褶岩(C)—震裂岩(D)—阶梯状微断层(E)—火焰状构造(F)—上覆未震层(G)的渐变过程及震积作用逐渐减弱的趋势呈不同形式的组合出现,有ABG、ACDG、AEG、ABCG和ABFG等组合.本研究分析认为晚古生代诺错组早期存在一个强烈的构造活动时期,结合震积岩的分布及区域地质背景研究表明,九子拉北侧一带可能为近东西向同生断裂带,该断裂带的强烈构造活动是本区诺错组震积作用的直接诱发因素.从而佐证了九子拉地区正处于构造转换阶段.本研究对分析晚古生代的构造演化、沉积盆地类型奠定了基础,同时保存完好的震积事件地层记录对推断古断裂、古环境也具有较大意义.     

四川盆地喜马拉雅期张扭性断裂构造特征及形成机制

前人对四川盆地盆缘冲断带及川中高-磨地区断裂系统进行了系统性研究,但对于盆地其他区块断裂发育特征、形成演化及应力背景的认识尚不充分.发现了梓潼-成都-威远-华蓥山-广安地区震旦系-下三叠统地层中发育的一套区域性张扭性断裂,主要自震旦系及以下地层向上延伸切穿二叠系地层,多为高陡、小断距正断层,部分形成负花状构造.根据该断裂系统的剖面产状、纵向穿层特征及盆地范围内体现出的分异性,推断该断裂系统形成于喜马拉雅期.物理模拟实验研究发现该断裂体系应发育于扭张性应力环境中,该断裂体系的发育指示了四川盆地内部新生代存在南西-北东向张应力,可能与四川盆地新生代发生的逆时针旋转有关.      

The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008–14 over Jiangxi Province,East China

Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind (extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter (November-February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p=0.0013). This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.     

青藏高原东缘构造演化的SHRIMP锆石U-Pb年代学框架

青藏高原东缘一直被普遍认为是一个吸收印度—欧亚大陆碰撞变形的调节带。本文所获得的最新SHRIMP锆石U-Pb测年结果显示:青藏高原东缘具有更加复杂的地质历史。测年结果表明,高原东缘最古老的前寒武纪结晶基底形成于古元古代(2401~1912Ma)。这一古老基底首先受到中元古代构造热事件(1361~1040Ma)的影响,随后受到新元古代与弧岩浆活动有关构造热事件(791~817Ma)的强烈改造。松潘—甘孜复理石杂岩的基底是亲洋壳型的,形成于晚新元古代的大陆裂解作用(681~655Ma)。高原东缘的前寒武纪微地块可能是由这次裂解作用从扬子或青藏地块拉裂出去形成的。这些微陆块先增生拼贴于东冈瓦纳大陆、然后又从中裂离,并最终卷入高原东缘的特提斯构造演化过程中。伴随东冈瓦纳大陆裂解,高原东缘古特提斯洋于石炭纪至二叠纪早期拉开(328~292Ma),经早中生代弧-陆碰撞作用闭合(224~213Ma)。中侏罗世这一地区发育显著的构造岩浆活动(175Ma),但其动力学背景仍不十分清楚。晚白垩世岩浆活动(97Ma)可能是印度板块初始俯冲阶段的产物。新生代岩浆作用(18Ma)与陆-陆碰导致的大规模走滑断层作用所引起的同熔作用有关。     

安徽贵池地区含锰岩系地质地球化学特征

安徽贵池地区沉积锰矿床赋存于二叠纪孤峰组,包括沉积作用形成的碳酸锰矿和经后期氧化作用形成的氧化锰矿。二叠纪含锰岩系一般为钙、泥、硅质岩石组合,主要处于二叠纪孤峰组下部,自东向西钙质增加、厚度变大。常量元素特征为Ca、Si低,Mn、Fe、P相对富集。微量元素总体特征显示本区锰矿层及含锰岩系的物质来源具有多源性,Sr异常和Sr／Ba值以及Co／Ni值反映出当时含锰岩系处在高盐度的海相沉积环境。稀土元素属LREE富集型。球粒陨石标准化的稀土元素配分模式图显示重稀土亏损特点,均为右倾斜、中等Eu、Ce负异常,利用海水的标准化值进行标准化的模式曲线,则出现明显的Ce正异常特征,反映区内沉积物具有相似的物质来源。氧、碳同位素具有比较大的变化范围,δ^13CV.PDB=-4.1‰～5‰,δ^18OV.PDB=-3.4‰～-9.9‰,表明碳的来源主要为早二叠纪海水的重碳酸盐。6个含锰灰岩样品δ^18OSMOW值稳定在22‰～24‰,这些均一的氧同位素组成可能反映出它们有一个相似的海相源区。古海水温度比正常沉积要高,约49～71℃,综合地球化学各参数特征分析表明本区孤峰组含锰岩系的沉积是热水活动间歇式、多次活动的结果。含锰岩系和锰的物源既有热水成因的也有非热水成因的物质。结合沉积特征及地史演化分析,自栖霞期发生的海侵在茅口早期达最大,本区处于深水陆棚相-盆地相沉积环境,发生含锰地层的沉积。     

Typical Geochemical Elements in Loess Deposit in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau and Its Paleoclimatic Implication

Widespread and thick loess deposit in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau records paleoclimatic changes over the Quaternary period. In this study, we investigate a loess section located in a high terrace of the Huangshui River in the Xining Basin, and collect samples at 20-cm intervals by digging a well of 16-m depth （including paleosol S1 and SO and several loess interlayers over the last glacial-interglacial cycle and the Holocene）. Concentration of some active elements （Sr and Ca） and inert elements （Rb, Zr, Ti） in these loess samples are measured. The results show that ratios of those elements （oxide）, such as Rb/Sr, Ti/Sr, and Zr/CaO ratios, would indicate sensitively paleoclimatic changes, especially the history of precipitation over the last glacial-interglacial and the Holocene. Moreover, the curves of Rb/Sr, Ti/Sr, and Zr/CaO ratios had almost the same variable trends from the bottom to the top and also closely correlated with values of magnetic susceptibility and the global marine δ^18O record. But compared with the curves of magnetic susceptibility, the changes of ratios of these elements （oxide） are clearer and easy to understand. Therefore, the ratios of these typical chemical elements in the loess deposit may be used as an excellent index to investigate the history of paleoclimate, particularly precipitation changes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.     

中国地震紧急救援理论研究

如何满足国家和社会对地震应急的需求,进一步发展我国的地震应急工作,是地震界面临的课题。根据目前地震应急的现状,提出了以下2个有关地震应急理论的创新点:地震速报的基本模式,新闻媒体传播地震消息模式,地震应急预案启动模式,地震考察地区性差异,地震灾害死伤的基础数据模式,地震应急期分期模式,地震应急期救援真空模式,地震应急期黑箱、灰箱、白箱模式,地震救援队伍的后勤模式,国外地震救援队到中国参加救援法规模式,地震受灾体分类模式,新建和加固农村公共建筑提高一度模式。并且给予了论述。     

街头抢劫者前犯罪经历对其后作案地选择的影响

作案地选择是犯罪地理学的研究主题。已有的重复作案地选择的研究表明,犯罪者“前案件”作案地选择对他们“后案件”作案地选择具有影响,但以往研究关注的是先前的犯罪时间和地点对其后续作案地选择的影响,仍未检验犯罪者在“前案件”中犯罪经历的具体作用。因此,论文以中国东南沿海ZG市为例,利用街头抢劫者的抓捕数据和混合Logit模型,聚焦探析街头抢劫者先前的个体犯罪经历对他们随后的作案地选择的影响。研究发现：街头抢劫者在“前案件”中的犯罪间隔、犯罪出行和当场被捕等个体犯罪经历对其“后案件”作案地选择具有强烈的影响,即“前后案件”的犯罪间隔越临近、“前案件”犯罪出行距离越短,以及“前案件”未当场被捕,则大大增加了街头抢劫者返回到先前抢劫区域再次犯罪的可能性。并通过警察访谈和结合理论分析,发现“前案件”未当场被捕是由犯罪者当场被捕的恐惧感、警察特殊的干预方式,以及社会凝聚力和犯罪防控的相互作用而形成。研究结论可为警务部门的“事前防控”与“主动处置”提供一定的参考。     

深水多波束测深系统测深精度评估

深水多波束测深系统主要应用于高精度全覆盖水下地形测量,随着现代水声技术的发展,其可同时获得海底地貌信息(底质分类)、水柱信息(水体中的油气),成为海洋探测必不可少的设备。对深水多波束测深系统原理、功能、发展做简要介绍,对多波束系统测量误差与精度评估方法进行了初步研究,并利用上海海洋大学"淞航"号首航实测数据,开展了EM302深水多波束测深系统的安置偏移量检校和测深精度评估工作。该工作具有较强实用性,为深水多波束的合理高效使用提供有益的参考。