Land degradation in the source region of the Yellow River, northeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau: classification and evaluation

Land degradation imposes a great threat to the world. It is not merely an environmental issue, but also a social and economic problem. Land desertification is among the main aspects of environment changes in the source region of the Yellow River. Previous studies focused on water resource utilization and soil erosion, but land degradation in the source region of the Yellow River even the whole Qinghai-Xizang Plateau received little attention. Based on the data obtained by field investigation and TM satellite images of 2000, this study provides the classification and evaluation information of the land degradation in the source region of the Yellow River. There are six types of land degradation in this region: water erosion in the northern mountains around the Gonghe Basin, sandy desertification in the Gonghe Basin and Upland Plain Area, aridization in the lower reaches, salinization in the Gonghe Basin, vegetation degradation in the intramontance basin and freezing and thawing erosion in the high mountains. The total degraded area is 34,429.6 km², making up 37.5% of the land in the study area. Finally, land degradation in the source region of the Yellow River was evaluated according to changes in the physical structure and chemical component of soils, land productivity, secondary soil salt and water conditions.     

波浪条件下小型回转体高速入水动力学特性研究

采用光滑粒子流体动力学（SPH）方法,建立了刚体入水六自由度响应模型,实现了波浪环境下小型回转体高速入水过程的数值模拟。对波浪环境下小型回转体高速入水过程中的运动姿态、冲击载荷进行讨论分析,结果表明：波浪条件下入水点相位不同,导致回转体实际入水角不同,实际入水角越大,入水冲击载荷越大,弹道越稳定;实际入水角越小,入水冲击载荷越小,弹道越易发生失稳。本研究表明,入水点相位对小型回转体弹道特性和冲击载荷产生影响,进而为波浪条件下跨介质武器低载稳定入水提供基础性技术支撑。     

Could CMIP6 climate models reproduce the early-2000s global warming slowdown?

The unexpected global warming slowdown during 1998–2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms, and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) cannot simulate it. Here, we examine whether the new-generation climate models in CMIP6 can reproduce the recent global warming slowdown, and further evaluate their capacities for simulating key-scale natural variabilities which are the most likely causes of the slowdown. The results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5, most of them still fail to reproduce the warming slowdown. They considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998–2013,exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed deceleration. This is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and/or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal scales. In contrast, the 4 models that can successfully reproduce the slowdown show relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and the three keyscale natural variabilities. Our work may provide important insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate changes.     

基于SPI指数的当前及未来中国东北地区干旱时空演变特征分析

基于降水量历史观测数据和气候模式预估数据,采用标准化降水量指数(Standandized Precipitation Index,SPI)识别干旱事件,从干旱发生的频率和强度特征分析其危险性,研究东北地区当前及未来不同气候变化情景下干旱时空变化特征.结果显示:(1)bcc-csm1-1 对东北地区降水的模拟效果较好;(...     

The impacts of base level and lithology on fluvial geomorphic evolution at the tectonically active Laohu and Hasi Mountains,northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Previous researches had emphasized tectonic impacts on the fluvial system at the tectonically active areas, while the effects of lithology and local base level change have received relatively rare attention. Here we investigated fluvial landforms at different spatial scales, focusing on knickpoints and channel network reorganization from an area affected by the Haiyuan Fault in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The geomorphic indices, i.e., drainage pattern and χ anomalies, were calculated and investigated. The results show that two regional radial drainages formed around the Laohu and Hasi Mountains. Within the interior of the radial drainage, tributaries from the southeast side of the Laohu Mountain experienced near 180° direction change.We interpret this as the gradual drainage capture originating from the height difference(～190 m) of the local base level between the two catchments. Some tributaries from the Hasi Mountain show alternating gorges and broad valleys controlled by lithology.Besides, tectonic uplift and the lowering of base level(from the incision of the Yellow River) triggered an autogenic positivefeedback transition from parallel to dendritic drainage patterns. These observations suggest that base level change and lithology play a crucial role in landscape evolution, even in a tectonically active region.     

资本禀赋、城市环境对流动人口机会型创业的影响研究

在“大众创业、万众创新”的时代背景下,流动人口机会型创业的发生机制是亟待深入研究的问题。论文通过关注个体资本禀赋和城市环境2个层面因素,对比跨省、省内跨市和市内跨县3类不同范围的流动群体,剖析了中国城市流动人口机会型创业的影响机制。结果表明：(1)中国城市流动人口的总体机会型创业率较低,但跨省流动人口的创业率高于省内跨市和市内跨县流动人口;(2)不同资本禀赋对3类流动人口机会型创业产生了差异化影响。社会资本与经济资本之间存在互补关系,随着流动范围的扩大,社会资本对流动人口机会型创业的影响不断增强,经济资本的影响则逐渐减弱;(3)城市环境解释了10%～20%的流动人口机会型创业决策变异,流动范围越大,流动人口对外在环境的变化越敏感,尤其劳动力市场分割状况显著影响了跨省流动人口的创业决策。此外,个体资本禀赋与城市环境的相互作用对机会型创业的影响同时存在着负向和正向2种效应。针对不同流动范围人口机会型创业的影响机制及其差异性的探讨,可为完善城市创业支持体系提供科学依据。     

杭州湾地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率分析

根据杭州湾口区两台地波雷达5个半月观测的资料,对其中的3 189个有效观测时次的海流数据取样率(CSR)在空间和时间上的变化规律进行了分析,结果表明,在两台雷达波交叉观测的中心区域各测点的地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率高于外围区域,在中心区域海流数据取样率可达98%以上,向外围区域海流数据取样率逐渐平缓递减,到边缘区域海流数据取样率仅在20%以下;地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率有明显的日变化,白天海流数据取样率明显低于夜间;17时海流数据平均取样率达到最低值(约49%),然后很快上升,至02时达最高值(约74%),然后再缓慢下降至17时为止。同时在10时和20时地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率呈现两个相对低值点,可能与人们在这两个时段通讯繁忙所造成的干扰有一定的关系。海流流速对地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率也有较大影响,呈负相关,流速大时海流数据取样率比流速小时的要低,在海流数据取样率大于98%的中心区域,流速和海流数据取样率的相关系数小于-0.8,在海流数据取样率大于60%的区域,流速和海流数据取样率的相关系数小于-0.6,体现明显的相互关联。地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率和潮汐有着每日4次的良好相干,而似乎和风没有显著的关系。希望这些分析对地波雷达以后的推广使用能积累一些经验和参考意见。     

煤层气储层物性预测的AVO技术对地震纵波资料品质要求的探讨

煤层的含气性及渗透性可以利用纵波AVO技术及基于各向异性理论的方位AVO技术进行研究.煤层气属于吸附气,储层厚度较薄,地震异常响应较弱,对地震资料的品质及其携带的信息量提出了更高的要求.本文对AVO与方位AVO反演理论的近似条件及模型试算结果进行了分析,提出了对地震纵波数据信噪比、入射角、偏移距分布及方位角分布等参数的要求:1.观测系统设计及野外采集时应保证地震波的有效入射角在0.～30.或更大范围内,偏移距应大中小均匀分布,避免过于集中或缺失.2.地震数据应有足够宽分布的方位角,煤层气地震勘探中应选择宽方位观测系统.3、地震资料信噪比应足够高.     

FEM for stability analysis against overturning of portal water injection sheet pile

Portal water injection sheet pile （PWISP）, as a retaining wall, appeared in seashore engineering in 2000. Although there have been many systematic methods addressing the issue, there are very few focusing on the new structure because of the difficulties in defining the earth pressure between the two piles. A new method is proposed in this paper to obtain the earth pressure between the PWISPs. Stability analysis against overturning follows as a consequence. Using Finite Element Analysis （FEA） software ANSYS, both the nonlinear characteristics of the soil and those of the contact elements are taken into account to obtain the earth pressure distribution on the contact surface. Based on the results of the FEA, Rankin＇s theory and the slip plane theory, the formula of the earth pressure on the inner surfaces between the piles is given. Assuming the PWISP as the analysis object and the earth pressure as an outside force acting upon it, the equation of stability against overturning of the PWISP is presented. Finally, some parameters are discussed about the stability of the PWISP against overturning, such as the embedded depth of the front pile, the distance between the two rows of piles, the internal friction angle and the cohesion of the earth. The results show that the increase of the cohesion and the internal friction angle will decrease the distance and the embedded depth, and therefore enhance the stability against overturning. Specifically, when the distance is 1/3-2/3 of the maximal excavation depth, the two rows of piles give the best performance in stability.