伊犁河谷2001-2014年地表温度时空分异特征

地表温度是地表能量平衡、区域和全球尺度地表物理过程的一个重要因子。为了辨析中国西北干旱区“天山湿岛”——伊犁河谷的地表温度时空分异,采用趋势分析法和空间数据统计法,探讨了2001-2014年不同土地利用/覆盖类型下地表温度时空变化规律,分析地表温度的时空分异特征及原因。结果表明：（1） MODIS LST产品的精度（平均R²=0.90）能够满足伊犁河谷地表温度时空变化分析的要求;（2）空间上,地表温度呈现出中部高四周低的变化趋势,高温区面积约占总面积的41%,低温区面积约占总面积的23%;时间上,伊犁河谷平均地表温度的年际波动较大,以2013年、2006年、2007年和2008年尤为突出;地表温度的年内变化呈现出单峰型分布,地表温度高值集中在3-8月,最高值出现在7月;（3）不同土地利用/覆盖类型下年均地表温度分布的总体特征为建设用地最高,稀疏草地、旱地等次之,冰川/积雪最低;（4）伊犁河谷地表温度变化趋势呈严重减少、基本不变和轻微增加区域面积分别占5%、37%和26%,以基本不变和轻微增加为主。伊犁河谷地表温度时空变化不仅受大尺度气候变化影响,还受土地类型差异影响,两者共同构成了不同地理区域及景观的温场格局,绿色植被对地表温度时空分布具有重要的调节作用。     

中国留学人员创业园分布及产业特征

以《中国留学人员创业年鉴》为基础数据,采用GIS空间分析技术,运用核密度估计法、L函数和最近邻层次聚类分析等方法,分析2006~2015年中国留学人员创业园空间分布规律以及园区产业集聚特征,结果表明：中国留学人员创业园集聚特征显著,而且随着时间的推移,其多中心趋势明显,集聚规模迅速增大,集聚强度呈“先升后降,但总体增大”趋势;主要集聚于长三角、京津冀和珠三角等地区,尤以前两者最显著,且三大集聚区的集聚强度与集聚规模差异明显,其中长三角留创园的集聚规模最大,京津冀集聚强度最高,而珠三角则比较复杂,其在很小空间尺度范围内服从集聚分布,而在较大空间尺度范围内则服从随机分布;基于不同主导产业的中国留学人员创业园依然集中于长三角、京津冀和珠三角等地区,其主导产业分布格局则差异显著,规律性不强。     

江南丘陵地区乡村聚落地域分异特征研究——以湖南省为例

以江南丘陵湖南地区为研究对象,通过对18个抽样村进行实地走访与问卷调查,从乡村聚落的居住条件、居住设施和乡村居民的生产生活形态等方面,探讨江南丘陵湖南地区乡村聚落空间地域分异特征与规律。研究表明：乡村聚落研究是江南丘陵地区乡村聚落空间布局优化与调控的基础。由于地域范围广泛,区域内的资源禀赋与地域组合、经济发展基础、文化传统等条件差异悬殊,因此江南丘陵湖南地区乡村聚落发展的地域分异规律较为明显,在聚落空间格局（规模、密度、形态）、居住条件（住房面积、住房结构、建筑特色）、居住设施（道路、饮水安全、网络电视开通率等基础与公共服务设施）和生产生活形态等方面呈现出较为显著的盆地-丘陵-低山区、发达-欠发达-落后、近郊-远郊-偏远等地貌、经济、区位梯度差异。     

1998~2013年中国地级单元制造业规模与结构高级度协调发展的时空特征

基于制造业企业级数据,采用产业结构高级度（UPG）指数、GIS、协调度评价模型等方法考察1998~2013年中国地级单元制造业规模与结构高级度协调发展的时空特征。结果表明：① 制造业规模格局始终呈东部沿海导向下的核心-边缘模式,沿海三大城市群规模优势明显,西南、西北以及青藏地区规模最小。② 制造业结构高级度格局总体呈“马赛克”式的混合分布模式,东北、黄河中游等传统工业基地的UPG指数下降明显,长三角、珠三角、山东半岛等沿海地区则不断提升。③ 制造业规模与结构高级度间的协调度水平稳定上升,总体由中度失调进入濒临失调阶段,但协调度水平及其成长格局具有“东-中-西”阶梯式降低特征。     

常量元素记录的毛乌素沙地东南缘全新世气候变化

毛乌素沙地处于中国季风边缘的半干旱区,对气候变化响应敏感,是研究过去全球气候变化的理想场所。对沙地东南缘锦界剖面全新统砂质黄土-古风成砂-古土壤互层沉积序列进行研究,在OSL测年基础上,通过沉积物常量元素氧化物含量及其比值分析,结合粒度、磁化率特征,探讨了毛乌素沙地东南缘7.9ka BP以来气候变化。结果表明：（1）地层常量元素氧化物以SiO₂和Al₂O₃为主,其他元素含量依次为Na₂O、K₂O、Fe₂O₃、CaO、MgO。各种元素活动性不同,K、Na活动性较强,易淋失;Si活动性较稳定,风成砂中易富集;Ca、Mg、Al、Fe活动性较弱,古土壤中富集。（2）7.9ka BP以来气候变化分为6个阶段。7.9～7.3 ka最温暖湿润时段;7.3～6.8 ka,气候转冷干;6.8～4.3 ka,整体上温暖湿润,期间存在2次由暖湿变冷干的波动,并出现过6次风沙活动,即6.6～6.3、6.1、5.9、5.7～5.5、5.3～5.0、4.7～4.4 ka;4.3～2.5ka BP,气候转冷干;2.5～1.8ka BP出现过短暂湿润期,但暖湿程度不及全新世中期;1.8ka BP以来气候渐趋干旱并接近现代气候。（3）全新世气候变化与毗邻的萨拉乌苏河流域、浑善达克沙地等记录的气候变化具有很好的一致性,这是通过东亚冬夏季风强弱消长变化对全球变化的区域响应。     

Impact of reservoir operation and climate change on the hydrological regime of the Sesan and Srepok Rivers in the Lower Mekong Basin

The transboundary Sesan and Srepok sub-basins (2S) are the “hot-spot” areas for reservoir development in the Lower Mekong region, with 12 reservoirs built in the Vietnam territory. This study examines the impacts of reservoir operations in Vietnam and projected climate change on the downstream hydrologic regime of the 2S Rivers by jointly applying the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models. Different scenarios of reservoir operation are considered and simulated to assess their impact on annual, seasonal, and monthly flow regimes under maximum hydropower capacity generation with and without taking into account the minimum flow requirement downstream near the Vietnam border with Cambodia. The precipitation and temperature projections from the high-resolution regional climate model HadGEM3-RA under two Representative Concentration Pathways, 4.5 and 8.5, of HadGEM2-AO are used as future climate change scenarios for the impact assessment. The study results show that reservoir operation leads to an increase in the dry season stream flows and a decrease in the wet season stream flows. The monthly flow regime exhibits considerable changes for both the Sesan and Srepok Rivers but with different magnitudes and patterns of increase and decrease. Climate change is likely to induce considerable changes in stream flows, though these changes are comparatively lower than those caused by reservoir operation. Climate change is likely to have both counterbalancing and reinforcing effects over the impact of reservoir operation, reducing changes during dry season but increasing changes in most of the other months.     

Assimilation of Feng-Yun-3B Satellite Microwave Humidity Sounder Data over Land

The ECMWF has been assimilating Feng-Yun-3B(FY-3B) satellite microwave humidity sounder(MWHS) data over ocean in an operational forecasting system since 24 September 2014. It is more difficult, however, to assimilate microwave observations over land and sea ice than over the open ocean due to higher uncertainties in land surface temperature, surface emissivity and less effective cloud screening. We compare approaches in which the emissivity is retrieved dynamically from MWHS channel 1 [150 GHz(vertical polarization)] with the use of an evolving emissivity atlas from 89 GHz observations from the MWHS onboard NOAA and EUMETSAT satellites. The assimilation of the additional data over land improves the fit of short-range forecasts to other observations, notably ATMS(Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder) humidity channels, and the forecast impacts are mainly neutral to slightly positive over the first five days. The forecast impacts are better in boreal summer and the Southern Hemisphere. These results suggest that the techniques tested allow for effective assimilation of MWHS/FY-3B data over land.     

中原城市群城市引力范围界定及演变格局

通过构建反映城市综合实力的指标体系,运用熵值法对中原城市群30个城市2005,2010,2015年的综合实力分别进行测算与评定,运用基于扩展断裂点模型的加权Voronoi图方法对中原城市群各城市引力范围进行划分并展示了城市间引力界线的变化趋势,揭示了中原城市群30个城市3个年份的城市引力范围时空演变特征和变化规律。结果表明:3个年份,综合实力较高的地区基本分布在中原城市群中部和北部,东南部城市综合实力较弱,排名靠后,呈现出中北高、东南低两极化的发展规律;目前中原城市群城市引力范围格局中,郑州市的引力范围最大,其次是洛阳市、邯郸市,已经形成了以郑州为城市群核心的空间格局;3个年份,中原城市群的城市影响范围演变格局总体较为稳定,局部地区空间吸引范围变化较为明显,中、北部城市发展态势良好,影响范围有向北扩大的趋势;城市引力范围与其综合实力不完全呈正相关关系。     

Spatiotemporal correlation in WebGIS group-user intensive access patterns

Group-user intensive access to WebGIS exhibits spatiotemporal behaviour patterns with aggregation features and regularity distributions when geospatial data are accessed repeatedly over time and aggregated in certain spatial areas. We argue that these observable group-user access patterns provide a foundation for improved optimization of WebGIS so that it can respond to volume intensive requests with a higher quality of service and improve performance. Subsequently, a measure of access popularity distribution must precisely reflect the access aggregation and regularity features found in group-user intensive access. In our research, we considered both the temporal distribution characteristics and spatial correlation in the access popularity of tiled geospatial data (tiles). Based on the observation that group-user access follows a Zipf-like law, we built a tile-access popularity distribution based on time-sequence, to express the access aggregation of group-users with heavy-tailed characteristics. Considering the spatial locality of user-browsed tiles, we built a quantitative expression for the correlation between tile-access popularities and the distances to hotspot tiles, reflecting the attenuation of tile-access popularity to distance. Moreover, given the geographical spatial dependency and scale attribute of tiles, and the time-sequence of tile-access popularity, we built a Poisson regression model to express the degree of correlation among the accesses to adjacent tiles at different scales, reflecting the spatiotemporal correlation in tile access patterns. Experiments verify the accuracy of our Poisson regression model, which we then applied to a cluster-based cache-prefetching scenario. The results show that our model successfully reflects the spatiotemporal aggregation features of group-user intensive access and group-user behaviour patterns in WebGIS. The refined mathematical method in our model represents a time-sequence distribution of intensive access to tiles and the spatial aggregation and correlation in access to tiles at different scales, quantitatively expressing group-user spatiotemporal behaviour patterns with aggregation features and a regular distribution. Our proposed model provides a precise and empirical basis for performance-optimization strategies in WebGIS services, such as planning computing resource allocation and utilization, distributed storage of geospatial data, and providing distributed services so as to respond rapidly to geospatial data requests, thus addressing the challenges of volume-intensive user access.     

Detecting abrupt dynamic change based on changes in the fractal properties of spatial images

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Many abrupt climate change events often cannot be detected timely by conventional abrupt detection methods until a few years after these events have occurred....