Progress in Predictability Studies in China （2003-2006）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly(2003),predictability studies in China have made significant progress.For dynamic forecasts,two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate,which are superior to the corresponding linear theory.A possible mechanism for the"spring predictability barrier"phenomenon for the El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)was provided based on a theoretical model.To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model,a new initialization scheme was developed,and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments.Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range(monthly)prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations.In statistical forecasts,it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features,and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation.For ensemble forecasts,a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998.Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation.This new downsealing model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.     

基于遥感技术的城市扩展变化研究

以1975年的MSS影像、1992年的TM影像和2004年的中巴资源卫星影像为数据源,对北京市建成区近30 a的扩展变化进行动态监测,运用计算机监督分类技术提取了北京市建成区30 a来的扩展变化信息,并分析出北京市建成区的变化是以老市区为中心向四周辐射蔓延的规律,为北京市未来城市规划与开发提供参考。     

Formation of iron sulfide nodules during anaerobic oxidation of methane

The biomarker compositions of iron sulfide nodules (ISNs; upper Pliocene Valle Ricca section near Rome, Italy) that contain the ferrimagnetic mineral greigite (Fe₃S₄) were examined. In addition to the presence of specific terrestrial and marine biomarkers, consistent with formation in coastal marine sediments, these ISNs contain compounds thought to originate from sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB). These compounds include a variety of low-molecular-weight and branched alkanols and several non-isoprenoidal dialkyl glycerol diethers (DGDs). In addition, archaeal biomarkers, including archaeol, macrocyclic isoprenoidal DGDs and isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers are also present. Both SRB and archaeal lipid δ¹³C values are depleted in ¹³C (δ¹³C values are typically less than −50‰), which suggests that the SRB and archaea consumed ¹³C depleted methane. These biomarker and isotopic signatures are similar to those found in cold seeps and marine sediments where anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) occurs with sulfate serving as the terminal electron acceptor. Association of AOM with formation of greigite-containing ISNs could provide an explanation for documented remagnetization of the Valle Ricca sediments. Upward migration of methane, subsequent AOM and associated authigenic greigite formation are widespread processes in the geological record that have considerable potential to compromise paleomagnetic records.     

西秦岭北缘关子镇蛇绿岩的形成时代：来自辉长岩中LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄的证据

西秦岭北缘天水地区关子镇蛇绿岩由变质基性火山岩(斜长角闪片岩)和蛇纹岩、变辉石岩、变辉长岩等构造岩块组成.其中的变质基性火山岩具有N-MORB的地球化学特征,显示关子镇蛇绿岩是洋脊型蛇绿岩残片.对蛇绿岩中的辉长岩进行了LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年,得到206Pb/238U加权平均年龄为(499.7±1.8)Ma(MSWD=2.2),代表了辉长岩的结晶年龄,表明关子镇蛇绿岩是晚寒武世在西秦岭北缘李子园-关子镇-武山洋盆扩张过程中岩浆活动的产物,代表了东秦岭早古生代商丹古洋盆在西秦岭造山带北缘向西延伸的组成部分.     

黑龙江省含煤盆地分布与煤炭资源地质调查工作方向

在总结以往地质工作的基础上,对黑龙江省含煤盆地工作程度、区域地质概况、含煤地层等进行分析,认为黑龙江省主要成煤时代为中生代和新生代,受滨太平洋构造影响,构造形态为北北东向的三隆三坳,聚煤作用以断陷带内为主。以此将全省划分为6个主要聚煤带,97个含煤盆地,其中优先选择33个盆地,分为18个区块作为今后的调查方向,并提出相应的工作重点、原则、方法及主要工作量。     

基于弯道超高计算泥石流流速的探讨

泥石流流速是难以实测和准确推算的重要参数。在分析既有各类弯道超高计算公式的基础上,探讨适用于各类泥石流的弯道超高计算模式,进而改进基于弯道超高的粘性泥石流、稀性泥石流和泥流的流速计算公式,用实例加以验证。     

云南腾冲上新统垂丝紫荆(比较种)Cerciscf.racemosa Oliv.表皮微细构造研究

本文研究了产于滇西腾冲上新世芒棒组一种被子植物叶型化石垂丝紫荆(比较种)Cerciscf.racemosaOliv.,归于豆科紫荆属。揭示了该种叶表皮构造特征:上表皮无气孔器,表皮细胞为多边形,垂周壁平直;下表皮具环列型气孔器,表皮细胞为多边形,垂周壁平直;上下表皮有相同类型的毛基,毛基的根部由多细胞组成,毛基部的细胞特化成辐射状。该化石表皮微细构造的分析为恢复腾冲上新世古环境提供了古植物证据。     

Discussion of Some Problems in the Research into the Seismotectonics of Strong Earthquakes on the North China Plain

The tectonic characteristics and research problems of five earthquakes with M≥7.0 on the North China Plain over the last 300 years are addressed in the paper, including the cognition that there were no ground fractures in the 1966 Xingtai earthquake, the question caused by the thrust activity of the seismic fault of the Tangshan Earthquake and the discussion of the seismotectonic environment of the 1830 Cixian earthquake and the 1937 Heze earthquake. The author thinks that the main reason for the problems in research of strong earthquake tectonics in the region is that the status of activity of the main tectonics during the Late Quaternary are unknown. This affects the founding of discrimination criteria for seismotectonics of strong earthquakes on the North China Plain. Discriminating the Holocene active faults from the large number of faults is the most effective method for seismic hazard assessment in the area in future.     

Statistical features of aftershock distribution size for moderate and large earthquakes in Chinese mainland

Based on data of earthquake sequences with MS≥5.0 in Chinese mainland from 1970 to 2004,for different se-quence types and different rupture modes of the main shock,the relationship between aftershock distribution size Rand the magnitude of the main shock M0 has been studied statistically.Considering the rupture mode of the mainshock,we give the quantitative statistical relationships between R and M0 under 95%confidence level for differentsequence types.Qualitatively,lgR,the logarithm of the aftershock distribution size,is positively correlative to theM0,but the data distribution is dispersed.Viewing from different sequence types,the correlation between R and M0is very weak for isolated earthquake type(IET)sequence,R distributes in the range from 5 to 60 km;For main-shock-aftershock type(MAT),lgR is positively correlative to M0;For multiple main shock type(MMT),the core-lation between lgR and M0 is not very obvious when M0≤6.2 and R distributes in the range from 5 to 70 km,whileit shows a linear correlation when M0≥6.3.The statistical results also show that the occupational ratios of differentsequence types for strike-slip and oblique slip are almost the same.But for dip-slip(mostly are thrust mechanisms),the ratio of MAT is higher than that of IET and MMT.Comparing with previous results,it indicates that,when M0is large enough,R is mainly determined by M0 and there is almost no relationship with the rupture mode of themain shock.     

云南地区房屋建筑的震害矩阵

自1992年4月23日云南孟连西中缅交界6.7、6.9级地震始,地震部门对云南地区的破坏性地震进行了现场灾害调查和经济损失评估。1992~2003年,云南地区共发生50次破坏性地震,积累了丰富的震害资料。本文根据云南地区的主要建筑结构,统计分析了50次地震不同烈度区的破坏比、损失比和震害指数,给出了房屋建筑的震害矩阵。