Numerieal prediction of storm surge in the Qingdao area under the impact of climate change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie (8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie (8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie (8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature (SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future (the end of the 21st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie (8509) was also estimated in this study.     

Replacement of Dietary Fish Oil with Vegetable Oils Improves the Growth and Flesh Quality of Large Yellow Croaker （Larmichthys crocea）

We investigated the effect of the replacement of dietary fish oil with vegetable oils on the growth and flesh quality of large yellow croaker(Larmichthys crocea). The basal diet(FO) was formulated to contain 66.5% fish meal and 6.4% menhaden fish oil; whereas the other 3 experimental diets were formulated by replacing the fish oil with 50% soybean oil(SO50), 100% soybean oil(SO100) and 100% palm oil(PO100), respectively. The 4 diets were randomly assigned to 4 floating sea cages(3.0 m × 3.0 m × 3.0 m), and each was stocked with 250 fish individuals with an initial average weight of 245.29 g ± 7.45 g. The fish were fed to apparent satiation twice a day at 5:00 and 17:00, respectively, for 12 weeks. Experimental analysis showed that the specific growth rate of fish fed SO50 or PO100 were significantly higher than that of fish fed FO or SO100(P0.05), and crude lipid contents of ventral muscle and viscera were significantly lower in fish fed FO than in those fed the other 3 diets(P0.05). No significant differences in condition factor, viscerosomatic index, hepatosomatic index, gutted yield and colorimetric values of fish among the dietary treatments were observed(P0.05). Compared to FO diet, SO50, SO100 and PO100 diets led to substantial decreases in the liquid loss and water loss from fresh fillets(1 d, 4℃)(P0.05). Similarly, thiobarbituric acid reactive substance(TBARS) values of fillets under different storage conditions(1 d, 4℃; 7 d, 4℃; 4 weeks,-20℃; 8 weeks,-20℃) decreased significantly after partial or complete replacement of fish oil with vegetable oils. These findings indicated that the growth performance and selected flesh quality properties(liquid holding capacity and TBARS value) of large yellow croaker were substantially improved by replacing dietary fish oil with vegetable oils.     

西秦岭大水金矿岩浆岩年代学、地球化学特征

西秦岭大水金矿床与其周围伴生的中酸性小岩体的成因关系,直接影响矿床成因的划分和深部资源的开发。中酸性岩浆岩的成因、源区性质及岩体规模对金矿成矿有重要影响。大水金矿岩浆岩地球化学研究结果显示:岩浆系列属于高钾钙碱性系列;岩体球粒陨石标准化稀土元素配分模式具有轻稀土元素富集、重稀土元素亏损、Eu正异常的特征;岩体洋中脊花岗岩标准化微量元素蛛网图显示其富集大离子亲石元素K、Rb、Ba、Th等,亏损高场强元素Nb、Ta、Hf、Zr、Sm、Y、Yb等,花岗岩的w(Sr)-w(Yb)分类属于高Sr、低Yb"C"型埃达克岩。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb法测年获得大水金矿格尔括合岩体和竖井941岩脉的锆石U-Pb年龄分别为(215.8±1.3)、(202.9±1.5)Ma;成矿热液蚀变叠加在脉岩之上,成矿年龄应晚于202.9 Ma的脉岩年龄。Sr-Nd同位素组成具有高初始N(87Sr)/N(86Sr)值、低εNd的特点,模式年龄为1.29~1.47Ga。εSr(t)-εNd(t)图解表明岩浆源区为下地壳;εNd(t)-初始N(87Sr)/N(86Sr)图解暗示西秦岭存在统一的岩浆源区。因此,西秦岭大水金矿在成因上与高Sr、低Yb"C"型埃达克岩密切相关。     

鄂尔多斯盆地子北地区长6段油藏成藏条件及主控因素

分析了鄂尔多斯盆地子北地区延长组长6段油层构造特征、沉积相分布及砂体展布特征,从烃源岩、储层、盖层等方面对长6段油藏成藏条件进行了探讨,并就油藏类型、主控因素及成藏期次进行了讨论。结果表明:子北地区长6段油藏具有较好的生、储、盖配置关系,主要受沉积微相及储层物性控制;长6段油气主要储存在长61、62、63段河道砂体内,油藏类型主要为岩性圈闭;长6段油藏主控因素有主分流河道、储层物性及其非均质性、原油分布;长6段油层中,油气包裹体均一温度分布呈双峰状,主要在100℃~110℃和130℃~140℃;利用热演化史与流体包裹体均一温度法对油气成藏期次进行判断,长7段烃源岩生成的油气在早白垩世运移并大量聚集至长6段油层组,形成长6段油藏。     

基于地理加权回归的吉林省人口城镇化动力机制分析

以吉林省各县域(市辖区)为基本单元,借助第六次人口普查和统计年鉴的相关数据,结合地理加权回归模型和空间自相关分析方法,讨论人口城镇化水平和国有动力、非国有动力、农业动力及外向动力等因素的空间相关关系,并以此解释人口城镇化分县域(市辖区)差异的影响因素。结果表明:国有动力对吉林省人口城镇化的影响作用最大,影响强度由中北部向西南、东南两个方向递减;农业动力和非国有动力分居二、三位,但差别不明显。其中农业动力的影响强度由西北向东南方向递减,非国有动力的影响强度由东南向西北递减;外向动力对人口城镇化的影响力较弱,影响强度各地区差别较大。吉林省人口城镇化未来发展应重视非国有动力的影响和农村现代化的作用;关注人口城镇化动力多元化,考虑实现错位发展和个性化发展。     

中国科技资源配置效率测度及其时空格局演变特征(英文)

According to the connotation and structure of science and technology resources and some relevant data of more than 286 cities at prefecture level and above during 2001–2010, using modified method—Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA), science and technology(ST) resource allocation efficiency of different cities in different periods has been figured out, which, uncovers the distributional difference and change law of ST resource allocation efficiency from the time-space dimension. Based on that, this paper has analyzed and discussed the spatial distribution pattern and evolution trend of ST resource allocation efficiency in different cities by virtue of the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA). It turned out that:(1) the average of ST resource allocation efficiency in cities at prefecture level and above has always stayed at low levels, moreover, with repeated fluctuations between high and low, which shows a decreasing trend year by year. Besides, the gap between the East and the West is widening.(2) The asymmetrical distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency presents a spatial pattern of successively decreasing from Eastern China, Central China to Western China. The cities whose ST resource allocation efficiency are at higher level and high level take on a cluster distribution, which fits well with the 23 forming urban agglomerations in China.(3) The coupling degree between ST resource allocation efficiency and economic environment assumes a certain positive correlation, but not completely the same. The differentiation of ST resource allocation efficiency is common in regional development, whose existence and evolution are directly or indirectly influenced by and regarded as the reflection of many elements, such as geographical location, the natural endowment and environment of ST resources and so on.(4) In the perspective of the evolution of spatial structure, ST resource allocation efficiency of the cities at prefecture level and above shows a notable spatial autocorrelation, which in every period presents a positive correlation. The spatial distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency in neighboring cities seems to be similar in group, which tends to escalate stepwise. Meanwhile, the whole differentiation of geographical space has a diminishing tendency.(5) Viewed from LISA agglomeration map ofST resource allocation efficiency in different periods, four agglomeration types have changed differently in spatial location and the range of spatial agglomeration. And the continuity of ST resource allocation efficiency in geographical space is gradually increasing.     

南半球环状模与南极冰芯中气候信息关联研究综述

冰芯作为气候环境信息的良好载体,在研究过去大气环流异常中具有其他气候代用指标难以比拟的优势。本文重点综述了南极冰芯气候记录与南半球环状模(SAM-Southern Annular Mode)的关联特征:SAM与冰芯记录为同期变化,冰芯中NO-3、海盐组分(以Na+为代表)和水同位素比值δ18O同SAM指数具有较好的关联性;冰芯中SO2-4和MSA同SAM存在一定的关联,但相关性不显著;西南极冰芯记录的积累率同SAM具有较强的关联。需要说明的是,冰芯中各参数与SAM的相关性存在较大的空间差异。     

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AIR-SEA HEAT FLUX EXCHANGE DURING THE GENERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL TYPHOONS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

A South China Sea （SCS） local TC （SLT） is defined as a tropical cyclone （TC） that forms within the SCS region and can reach the grade of tropical storm （TS） or above. The statistical features of the SLTs from 1985 to 2007 are analyzed first. It is found that over the SCS about 68% of the TCs can develop into TSs. The SLT intensity is relatively weak and associated with its genesis latitude as well as its track. The SLT monthly number presents a seasonal variation with two peaks in May and July to September. Based on the daily heat flux data from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution_Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes （WHOI_OAFlux） in the same period, the air-sea exchange during the process of generation and development of the SLT is studied. Results show that the heat fluxes released to the atmosphere increase significantly day by day before cyclogenesis. The ocean to the south to the TC center provides the main energy. Along with the development of SLT, the regions with large heat fluxes spread clockwise to the north of TC, which reflects the energy dispersion property of vortex Rossby waves in the periphery of the TC. Once the SLT forms the heat fluxes are not intensified as much. During the whole process, the net heat, latent heat and sensible heat flux display a similar evolution, while the latent heat flux makes a main contribution to the net heat flux. The maximum air-sea heat exchange always occurs at the left side of the TC moving direction, which may reflect the influence of the SCS summer monsoon on TC structure.     

环境因子对敦煌莫高窟洞窟水分蒸发的影响

环境因子对洞窟水分蒸发有重要影响.在敦煌莫高窟72窟蒸发水分的收集过程中,通过对窟内温度和湿度的控制,分析窟内温湿度对水分蒸发的影响及作用机理,并根据围岩水分蒸发机理,探讨影响水分蒸发的外部环境因子.结果表明,洞窟2.0℃的温度变化即可对水分蒸发产生显著影响,短期内蒸发量可增大1倍以上.温度高、蒸发量大,可导致窟内相对湿度增加,因此目前全球性的气温升高对洞窟文物将产生不利影响.敦煌地区降雨量的增加增大了空气潮湿过程激活壁画盐分的可能.莫高窟所处的地理位置、地热、地形结构、围岩孔隙度和洞窟结构本身对围岩水分蒸发有重要影响.本文从环境因素揭示了莫高窟壁画能够保存至今的关键原因,为今后洞窟文物的更好保护提供了新思路.     

渤海地区平台结构设计环境条件选取分析

随着平台的使用年限增长,环境条件随着海洋环境的变化而变得日益恶劣,对于渤海地区,提出了是否采用100年一遇环境条件替换50年一遇环境条件进行结构设计.经过对渤海地区的部分中心平台和井口平台50年/100年环境条件对比分析,提出了对于渤海地区海上平台结构采用100年一遇环境条件替换50年一遇环境条件.