Probability Prediction Model for Landslide Occurrences in Xi’an,Shaanxi Province,China

Landslides are increasing since the 1980s in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China. This is due to the increase of the frequency and intensity of precipitation caused by complex geological structures, the presence of steep landforms, seasonal heavy rainfall, and the intensifcation of human activities. In this study, we propose a landslide prediction model based on the analysis of intraday rainfall （IR） and antecedent effective rainfall （AER）. Primarily, the number of days and degressive index of the antecedent effective rainfall which affected landslide occurrences in the areas around Qin Mountains, Li Mountains and Loess Tableland was established. Secondly, the antecedent effective rainfall and intraday rainfall were calculated from weather data which were used to construct critical thresholds for the 10%, 50% and 90% probabilities for future landslide occurrences in Qin Mountain, Li Mountain and Loess Tableland. Finally, the regions corresponding to different warning levels were identified based on the relationship between precipitation and the threshold, that is; “A” region is safe, “B” region is on watch alert, “C” region is on warning alert and “D” region is on severe warning alert. Using this model, a warning program is proposed which can predict rainfall-induced landslides by means of real-time rain gauge data and real-time geo-hazard alert and disaster response programs. Sixteen rain gauges were installed in the Xi’an region by keeping in accordance with the regional geology and landslide risks. Based on the data from gauges, this model accurately achieves the objectives of conducting real-time monitoring as well as providing early warnings of landslides in the Xi’an region.     

Dynamic monitoring of drought using HJ-1 and MODIS time series data in northern China

From early November 2008 to February 2009, lack of rainfall led to severe drought in northern China. More than 9.3 million ha of wheat in six major crop production provinces, including Henan, Anhui, Shandong, Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi, were hit by drought. Supported by Chinese HJ-1 satellite images together with NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, dynamic monitoring of the drought was conducted. HJ-1 CCD data with 30-m resolution were used to identify cropland information. Spatial–temporal variation of drought was detected using Vegetation Index and Water Index time series data derived from MODIS visible, infrared, and short-wave infrared bands. The influences of drought were classified into five levels based on MODIS-derived 8-day composite Anomaly Water Index (AWI) and field survey data. The results indicated that the drought deteriorated beginning in November 2008 and became most serious in late January 2009. HJ-1 data together with MODIS data proved to be valuable data sources for monitoring soil moisture and drought at a both regional and national scale.     

内蒙古扎赉特旗辉长岩-闪长岩地球化学特征 和LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄

扎赉特旗地区发育的辉长岩-闪长岩属钙碱性岩石系列。岩石相对富集LREE、大离子亲石元素（K、Rb、Ba和Sr）及U,亏损高场强元素（Th、Ta、Nb和Ti）,类似于岛弧环境产物。推测其源区为岩石圈地幔,原生岩浆为幔源物质部分熔融产生,在上升过程中遭受微弱地壳混染。用LA-ICP-MS同位素测定方法,测得其中变辉绿岩、角闪辉长岩和辉长闪长岩的锆石206Pb/238U年龄平均值分别为317.3Ma±1.1Ma（30个数据点）、328.1Ma±1.3Ma（29个数据点）、325.2Ma±0.9Ma（32个数据点）,为首次在扎赉特旗地区中基性岩体中获得较早的高精度岩体侵位年龄,指示扎赉特旗一带在早石炭世末期存在洋壳俯冲作用,为进一步研究二连浩特-贺根山碰撞拼合带东延至扎赉特旗一带的形成与演化提供了新的证据。     

Initiation process of debris flows on different slopes due to surface flow and trigger-specific strategies for mitigating post-earthquake in old Beichuan County, China

The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Ms 8.0) in China, produced an estimated volume of 28 × 10⁸ m³ loosened material, which led to debris flows after the earthquake. Debris flows are the dominant mountain hazards, and serious threat to lives, properties, buildings, traffic, and post-earthquake reconstruction in the earthquake-hit areas. It is very important to understand the debris flow initiation processes and characteristics, for designing debris flow mitigation. The main objective of this article is to examine the different debris flow initiation processes in order to identify suitable mitigation strategies. Three types of debris flow initiation processes were identified (designated as Types A, B, and C) by field survey and experiments. In “A” type initiation, the debris flow forms as a result of dam failure in the process of rill erosion, slope failure, landslide dam, or dam failure. This type of debris flow occurs at the slope of 10 ± 2°, with a high bulk density, and several surges following dam failure. “B” type initiation is the result of a gradual increase in headward down cutting, bank and lateral erosion, and then large amount of loose material interfusion into water flow, which increases the bulk density, and forms the debris flow. This type of debris flow occurs mainly on slopes of 15 ± 3° without surges. “C” type debris flow results from slope failures by surface flow, infiltration, loose material crack, slope failure, and fluidization. This type of debris flow occurs mainly on slopes of 21 ± 4°, and has several surges of debris flow following slope failure, and a high bulk density. To minimize the hazards from debris flows in areas affected by the Wenchuan earthquake, the erosion control measures, such as the construction of grid dams, slope failure control measures, the construction of storage sediment dams, and the drainage measures, such as construction of drainage ditches are proposed. Based on our results, it is recommend that the control measures should be chosen based on the debris flow initiation type, which affects the peak discharge, bulk density and the discharge process. The mitigation strategies discussed in this paper are based on experimental simulations of the debris flows in the Weijia, Huashiban, and Xijia gullies of old Beichuan city. The results are useful for post-disaster reconstruction and recovery, as well as for preventing similar geohazards in the future.     

大庆长垣北部葡萄花上部油层高分辨率层序地层划分

应用高分辨率层序地层学以及沉积学相关理论,依据67口井的岩芯和8000口井的测井资料,将松辽盆地大庆长垣北部喇萨杏地区的葡萄花油组上部油层（PI油层）划分为1个受湖泛面限定的完整中期基准面旋回,并在其内部划分出10~14个短期基准面旋回,指出了PI油层在南北向上存在厚度以及短期旋回个数的差异。通过平行及垂直物源方向上的密井剖面分析并结合前人认识以及构造背景,认为葡I油层存在着三种不同的地层叠覆模式:低可容空间下的主动进积薄层叠覆模式;极低可容空间下的强迫进积过路沉积模式;侵蚀进积的叠合模式。该认知对于指导喇萨杏地区甚至整个长垣地区的高精度地层对比具有指导意义。     

虚拟化技术在公共服务平台中的应用

阐述了虚拟化技术及其优势,探讨在上海市公众网平台上建立公共虚拟机服务平台,并对上海市地理信息服务系统在公共虚拟服务平台上的应用进行实证分析,有助于为政府各部门提供更有效的基础地理信息服务。     

2013年芦山MS7.0地震序列参数的早期 特征: 传染型余震序列模型计算结果

为考察2013年4月20日芦山M_S7.0地震震后序列参数的早期特征, 利用“传染型余震序列”(ETAS)模型和最大似然法进行了参数估计. 设定截止震级M_c=M_L2.0, 拟合时段为震后0.31—24.12天, 计算获得α=1.89, p=1.22, 同时利用最大似然法估计获得b=0.72. 与中国大陆地区其它中强震的余震序列参数的比较表明, 芦山M_S7.0地震序列参数表现为触发次级余震的能力较弱和序列衰减速率较快的特征, 反映出余震区相对较高的应力水平. 为检测结果的稳定性, 设定不同的截止震级M_c以及不同的拟合截止时间, 分别进行参数拟合和参数标准差估计. 结果表明, M_c的选取对α值影响明显, 对p值影响则较小. 此外, 震后10天内获得的参数拟合结果随时间变化较为明显, 而其后各参数变化总体较为平稳.      

A hybrid factorial stepwise-cluster analysis method for streamflow simulation – a case study in northwestern China

ABSTRACT

In this study, a hybrid factorial stepwise-cluster analysis (HFSA) method is developed for modelling hydrological processes. The HFSA method employs a cluster tree to represent the complex nonlinear relationship between inputs (predictors) and outputs (predictands) in hydrological processes. A real case of streamflow simulation for the Kaidu River basin is applied to demonstrate the efficiency of the HFSA method. After training a total of 24?108 calibration samples, the cluster tree for daily streamflow is generated based on a stepwise-cluster analysis (SCA) approach and is then used to reproduce the daily streamflows for calibration (1995–2005) and validation (2008–2010) periods. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for calibration and validation are 0.68 and 0.65, respectively, and the deviations of volume are 1.68% and 4.11%, respectively. Results show that: (i) the HFSA method can formulate a SCA-based hydrological modelling system for streamflow simulation with a satisfactory fitting; (ii) the variability and peak value of streamflow in the Kaidu River basin can be effectively captured by the SCA-based hydrological modelling system; (iii) results from 2⁶ factorial experiments indicate that not only are minimum temperature and precipitation key drivers of system performance, but also the interaction between precipitation and minimum temperature significantly impacts on the streamflow. The findings are useful in indicating that the streamflow of the study basin is a mixture of snowmelt and rainfall water.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel     

Uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China: a comparison between an AVHRR-derived dataset and a Landsat TM-derived dataset

The large uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China may have significant implications for major cross-cutting themes of global environmental change—food production and trade, water resources, and the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Many earlier studies have indicated significant under-reporting of cropland area in China from official agricultural census statistics datasets. Space-borne remote sensing analyses provide an alternative and independent approach for estimating cropland area in China. In this study, we report estimates of cropland area from the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD-96) at the 1:100,000 scale, which was generated by a multi-year National Land Cover Project in China through visual interpretation and digitization of Landsat TM images acquired mostly in 1995 and 1996. We compared the NLCD-96 dataset to another land cover dataset at 1-km spatial resolution (the IGBP DIScover dataset version 2.0), which was generated from monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from April, 1992 to March, 1993. The data comparison highlighted the limitation and uncertainty of cropland area estimates from the DIScover dataset.     

不同甘蔗品种锤度与糖分的关系

使用大田实验数据和实验室数据建立了实验室锤度和田间锤度与甘蔗糖分关系的数学模型。统计分析表明 ,实验室锤度、田间锤度与糖分间均存在显著的线性关系 ,并且实验室锤度———糖分关系与大田锤度———糖分关系存在显著性 (α =0 .0 5 )差异 ;而不同甘蔗品种间的田间锤度———糖分关系无显著性差异 (α =0 .0 5 )。故不同的取样方法应使用不同的方程来估计甘蔗糖分 ;而不同甘蔗品种间田间锤度———糖分关系可用同一模型来描述。对三个供试甘蔗品种应用该模型进行实测验证 ,实测与预测值的相对误差均在 7%以内。