过去1 000 a大气中主要温室气体冰芯记录研究概述

对南北两极和中低纬度山地冰芯中开展的温室气体的相关研究进行了回顾.结果显示:在1000aBP到工业革命阶段,大气中CO2,CH4和N2O等温室气体的浓度及气体稳定同位素受各种自然来源影响显著,平均含量较低,浓度波动也较小;工业革命之后,随着人类工农业等活动对环境的影响的加剧,大气中3种温室气体的含量呈现出剧烈的上升趋势.2007年IPCC第四次评估报告显示,目前CO2、CH4和N2O气体浓度的全球大气平均含量分别达到379mL·m-3、1774μL·m-3和319μL·m-3.对影响工业革命前南极、格陵兰及青藏高原冰芯中温室气体的含量的因素总结发现,由于受不同的温度、杂质含量等条件的影响,温室气体含量区域差异较大.1800A.D.以前,格陵兰冰芯中CO2的含量较南极冰芯高出9mL·m-3,青藏高原达索普冰芯CH4平均含量较南极和格陵兰冰盖高出15%～20%,格陵兰冰芯中的N2O含量也明显高于南极冰芯.工业革命以后,冰芯中3种气体浓度表现出强烈的上升趋势,并均达到1000A.D.以来的最高值.     

北极Svalbard、斯堪的纳维亚与挪威南部冰川物质平衡对比及其气候意义

利用1946—2005年北极Svalbard、斯堪的纳维亚及挪威南部冰川物质平衡资料,分析了冰川物质平衡的变化特征及其对气候变化的响应.结果表明:北极Svalbard地区冰川物质平衡具有较低的年振幅和较小的年际变化;环北极的斯堪的纳维亚地区和挪威南部地区冰川物质平衡则具有较高的年振幅和较大的年际变化;20世纪80年代末90年代初,3个地区冰川物质平衡均达极大或较大值,之后呈加速向负平衡发展之势.冰川物质平衡对气候变化的敏感性与其物质平衡状态有关:物质平衡越是趋向正平衡发展的冰川,其敏感值较高,反之亦然;海洋性冰川较大陆性冰川对平衡线高度变化(气候变化)敏感.平均而言,三个地区冰川物质平衡在观测期内的亏损量相对于零平衡状态而言,相当于气温上升了0.32℃.冰川净物质平衡对1℃升温的敏感性变化范围为-0.42～-0.99mw.e..a-1,对10%降雪增量的敏感性为+0.01mw.e..a-1～+0.57mw.e..a-1;平衡1℃升温导致的冰川净物质平衡消融需要降雪量增加24%.冰川物质平衡对气候变化的敏感性与其所处气候环境背景(大陆度)相关性,越是趋向海洋性的冰川其敏感性越高.     

柳州2010年早春干旱及其对农业的影响

利用柳州市7个县区1961～2010年1～4月的月降雨量资料及NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,对2010年柳州的早春干旱特点及成因进行分析,并分析了干旱对柳州市农业生产的影响,得出如下结论:2010年早春的干旱,是近50a来柳州市同期最严重的干旱;干旱的成因是由于副热带高压强度偏强、位置偏西所致;干旱严重影响了柳州市的农...     

NEEM计划2537.36m透底深冰芯的钻取与成果概述

NEEM(格陵兰北部Eemian冰芯钻取)计划是目前最重要的国际冰芯研究计划,来自14个国家超过300名的科学家参与,目标是获得130～115ka BP甚至更古老的Eemian间冰期的透底冰芯和气候信息;此冰芯长达2 537.36m,最后2m冰芯含有数十万年的基岩和其他物质.介绍了NEEM计划深冰芯的钻取背景和NEEM计划概况,以及NEEM计划获取的成果,并详述我国科学家在2010年度深冰芯钻取过程中取得的认识.     

祁连山老虎沟12号冰川积累区消融期能量平衡特征

为研究冰川消融期积累区的能量平衡,利用2006年6月21日-7月31日祁连山老虎沟12号冰川海拔5040 m气象观测资料,分析了冰川的能量平衡各分量变化特征,估算了冰川表面的能量平衡组成.结果表明:冰川消融期,净辐射是冰川的主要热量来源(占82.1%),其次是感热通量(占17.9%);冰川消融耗热是主要的能量支出项(占...     

An empirical approach for evaluation of the potential of debris flow occurrence in mountainous areas

Debris flows can occur relatively suddenly and quickly in mountainous areas, resulting in major structural damage and loss of life. The establishment of a model to evaluate the occurrence probability of debris flows in mountainous areas is therefore of great value. The influence factors of debris flows are very complex; they can basically be divided into background factors and triggering factors. Background factors include the mechanical characteristics of geo-materials, topography and landscape, and soil vegetation; and triggering factors include hydrological and rainfall conditions, and human activities. By assessing the dynamic characteristics of debris flows in mountainous areas, some important influence factors are selected here for analysis of their impacts on the occurrence probability of debris flow. A mathematical model for evaluation of the occurrence probability of debris flows is presented and combined with probability analysis. Matlab software is used for the numerical implementation of the forecasting model, and the influences of rainfall, lithology and terrain conditions on the occurrence probability of debris flows are analyzed. Finally, the presented model is applied to forecast the occurrence probability of debris flows in the mountainous area around Qingping Town; the simulation results show that many loose landslide deposits and heavy rainfall are the key factors likely to trigger debris flows in this region.     

Time evolution and spatial accumulation of progressive failure for Xinhua slope in the Dagangshan reservoir,Southwest China

This paper presents a preliminary study of time evolution and spatial accumulation of progressive failure for ancient landslide deposits in Xinhua slope. According to the geological response after impoundment, the Xinhua slope has shown the spatial accumulation of deformation, such as ground cracks in the rear edge, toe collapse, local shallow slides in intense rainfall, and progressive creep displacement. Approximately 2 years of monitoring was performed for the Xinhua slope with the assistance of the global navigation satellite system (GNSS), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and field investigations. The deformation process of a reservoir landslide is considered to be a comprehensive and complicated combination of geological influence from various adverse factors. Field investigations and monitoring indicate that the major serious influence after completion of dam construction comes from the initial large-scale impoundment, the fluctuation of water level, and the existence of a flood season. The creep/slip deformation of slope deposits is a result of integration with adverse hydraulic conditions, e.g., strong rainfall, intense currents and transient seepage flow inside the slope deposits, and activation by water level fluctuation, which can be verified from the twofold evident deformation in the flood season. For the reservoir with daily regulation ability, the occurrence of evident deformations in July highlights that the regulation plan for water level in the flood season is important for controlling the deformation of slope deposits, where the fluctuation of the water level is no more than 10 m in the operation period.     

Deformation process and mechanism analyses for a planar sliding in the Mayanpo massive bedding rock slope at the Xiangjiaba Hydropower Station

Planar sliding, which has a universal characteristic of existing planar discontinuities, is very common in nature. The Mayanpo slope, a massive bedding rockslide, typical planar sliding, exploiting a sedimentary formation of interbedded sandstone and argillaceous stratums mixed with four strongly weathered weak interlayers, presents creep deformation that has interrupted the construction of the Xiangjiaba Hydropower Station. Field investigations indicate that the deformation behavior of Mayanpo slope should be analyzed within two different zones, namely zone I (east side) and zone II (west side). Although both zones are primarily controlled by the bottom weak interlayer (JC-1), the deformation magnitudes and potential failure modes are different: (a) Zone I exhibits a deformation that is significantly larger in magnitude than zone II, and (b) zone I and zone II present multistage and integral creep-fracturing progressive deformation-failure mode, respectively. The mechanism of this creep deformation can be considered to be the endogenic and exogenic integration. The progressive degradation of predominant discontinuity from primary soft rock stratum to weak interlayer is the fundamental which provides the possibility of kinematic release. The numerical analysis conducted with hydromechanical finite difference method (FDM) shows that excavation without reinforcement and rainfall can (i) enable kinematic feasibility and creep deformation, (ii) trigger the ceaseless propagation of sliding zone along JC-1, and (iii) promote the formation of a tensile strain concentration zone in the trailing under tension-shear effect. Furthermore, discussions on the engineering core measures for prevention and control are presented, which have important implications for similar engineering projects.     

Dynamic process analysis for the formation of Yangjiagou landslide-dammed lake triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake, China

The damming of rivers by landslides resulting in the formation of a lake was one of the typical secondary geological hazards triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake which occurred on May 12, 2008. Some landslide-dammed lakes were at a high risk of causing further damage since the rainstorm season was expected soon after the earthquake. Understanding the dynamic processes in the formation of landslide-dammed lakes is helpful in planning the mitigation measures. The Yangjiagou landslide-dammed lake was selected as a case study to investigate the typical processes of dam formation. The dynamic simulation of the formation of the Yangjiagou landslide-dammed lake was divided into two steps: the landslide step and the overflow/overtopping step. Two-dimensional discrete element method (DEM) was adopted to investigate the mechanics of the Yangjiagou landslide. The landslide process was found to be controlled by the bond strength and residual friction coefficient of the DEM models. Computational results show that the formation of the landslide dam took approximately 35 s. The maximum velocity of a typical particle was approximately 26.8 m/s. The shallow-water equation and finite difference method were used to analyze the hydrodynamic mechanisms of the overflow process of the landslide-dammed lake. Computational results show that overflow would have occurred 15.1 h after the river was blocked, and overtopping failure occurs for the landslide dam in the rainstorm season when the water flow is large enough, causing a major disaster.     

充气锚杆极限承载力计算方法

为研究充气锚杆极限承载力计算方法,在模型试验基础上,探讨充气锚杆抗拔过程中的受力特征与破坏形式,分析锚杆荷载-位移曲线变化特征。基于圆孔扩张理论,通过简化力学模型,推导充气锚杆侧阻力与端阻力计算公式,将理论公式计算值与试验成果进行比较。研究结果表明：(1) 采用球孔扩张理论可以较好地描述膨胀体端部对土体产生的弹性、塑性变形力学机制,估算端阻力值。充气膨胀压力对土体的挤压膨胀作用大大增加了锚杆的侧阻力。(2) 极限承载力理论公式计算值与抗拔试验值基本吻合,验证了极限承载理论计算公式的正确性。(3) 通过与螺旋锚杆相比,充气锚杆的承载力约为单锚片螺旋锚杆的4.3倍,约为双锚片螺旋锚杆的1.9倍,充气锚杆的承载能力优势明显。