气象科学“内卷”了吗?

新中国气象科学经过70年的快速发展,已经触摸到了世界前沿。从20世纪中叶开始的长时间“跟跑”和中国具有世界上最高、尺度最大的地形等带来的气象预报复杂性问题,或许在21世纪20年代到来时,“内卷”带来的挑战会更严峻:在全球气象进入“准停滞期”等待突破时,我们还很少有领跑的机会和经验。     

Position-domain integrity risk-based ambiguity validation for the integer bootstrap estimator

Integrity monitoring for ambiguity resolution is of significance for utilizing the high-precision carrier phase differential positioning for safety–critical navigational applications. The integer bootstrap estimator can provide an analytical probability density function, which enables the precise evaluation of the integrity risk for ambiguity validation. In order to monitor the effect of unknown ambiguity bias on the integer bootstrap estimator, the position-domain integrity risk of the integer bootstrapped baseline is evaluated under the complete failure modes by using the worst-case protection principle. Furthermore, a partial ambiguity resolution method is developed in order to satisfy the predefined integrity risk requirement. Static and kinematic experiments are carried out to test the proposed method by comparing with the traditional ratio test method and the protection level-based method. The static experimental result has shown that the proposed method can achieve a significant global availability improvement by 51% at most. The kinematic result reveals that the proposed method obtains the best balance between the positioning accuracy and the continuity performance.     

Numerical characterization of slope rock mass through considerations of hydraulic and mechanical properties

Landslides - In this paper, the slope rock mass is numerically characterized by considering hydraulic and mechanical properties using two distinct element models. The flow rate and permeability are...     

China’s national carbon emissions trading scheme: lessons from the pilot emission trading schemes,academic literature,and known policy details

Upon completion, China’s national emissions trading scheme (C-ETS) will be the largest carbon market in the world. Recent research has evaluated China’s seven pilot ETSs launched from 2013 on, and academic literature on design aspects of the C-ETS abounds. Yet little is known about the specific details of the upcoming C-ETS. This article combines currently understood details of China’s national carbon market with lessons learned in the pilot schemes as well as from the academic literature. Our review follows the taxonomy of Emissions Trading in Practice: A Handbook on Design and Implementation (Partnership for Market Readiness & International Carbon Action Partnership. (2016). Retrieved from www.worldbank.org): The 10 categories are: scope, cap, distribution of allowances, use of offsets, temporal flexibility, price predictability, compliance and oversight, stakeholder engagement and capacity building, linking, implementation and improvements.

Key policy insights

• Accurate emissions data is paramount for both design and implementation, and its availability dictates the scope of the C-ETS.

• The stakeholder consultative process is critical for effective design, and China is able to build on its extensive experience through the pilot ETSs.

• Current policies and positions on intensity targets and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits constrain the market design of the C-ETS.

• Most critical is the nature of the cap. The currently discussed rate-based cap with ex post adjustment is risky. Instead, an absolute, mass-based emissions cap coupled with the conditional use of permits would allow China to maintain flexibility in the carbon market while ensuring a limit on CO₂ emissions.

     

Early solar system aqueous activity: K isotope evidence from Allende

The alkali element K is moderately volatile and fluid mobile; thus, it can be influenced by both primary processes (evaporation and recondensation) in the solar nebula and secondary processes (thermal and aqueous alteration) in the parent body. Since these primary and secondary processes would induce different isotopic fractionations, K isotopes could become a potential tracer to distinguish them. Using recently developed methods with improved precision (0.05‰, 95% confidence interval), we systematically measured the K isotopic compositions and major/trace elemental compositions of chondritic components (18 chondrules, 3 CAIs, 2 matrices, and 5 bulks) in the carbonaceous chondrite fall Allende. Among all the components analyzed in this study, CAIs, which formed initially under high‐temperature conditions in the solar nebula and were dominated by nominally K‐free refractory minerals, have the highest K₂O content (average 0.53 wt%) and have K isotope compositions most enriched in heavy isotopes (δ⁴¹K: ?0.30 to ?0.25‰). Such an observation is consistent with previous petrologic studies that show CAIs in Allende have undergone alkali enrichment during metasomatism. In contrast, chondrules contain lower K₂O content (0.003–0.17 wt%) and generally lighter K isotope compositions (δ⁴¹K: ?0.87‰ to ?0.24‰). The matrix and bulks are nearly identical in K₂O content and K isotope compositions (0.02–0.05 wt%; δ⁴¹K: ?0.62 to ? 0.46‰), which are, as expected, right in the middle of CAIs and chondrules. This strongly indicates that most of the chondritic components of Allende suffered aqueous alteration and their K isotopic compositions are the ramification of Allende parent‐body processing instead of primary nebular signatures. Nevertheless, we propose the small K isotope fractionations observed (< 1‰) among Allende components are likely similar to the overall range of K isotopic fractionation that occurred in nebular environment. Furthermore, the K isotope compositions seen in the components of Allende in this study are consistent with MC‐ICP‐MS analyses of the components in ordinary chondrites, which also show an absence of large (10‰) isotope fractionations. This is not expected as evaporation experiments in nebular conditions suggest there should be large K isotopic fractionations. Nevertheless, possible nebular processes such as chondrules back exchanging with ambient gas when they formed could explain this lack of large K isotopic variation.     

水资源约束下的河西走廊城市经济脆弱性时空演变及其影响因素

城市经济脆弱性作为当前脆弱性研究中的重要领域,为人-地系统耦合研究提供了新的视角,并为城市可持续健康发展提供有益的决策支持和管理方法。依据城市经济脆弱性内涵,基于暴露度、敏感性、适应能力构建了城市经济脆弱性评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法评价河西走廊地区及区域内五市的城市经济脆弱性,并采用障碍度模型识别影响区域城市经济脆弱性变化的因素。结果显示：（1）2006—2015年,河西走廊地区城市经济脆弱性呈现出先曲折下降（2006—2011年）再波动上升趋势（2012—2015年）;（2）河西走廊地区的城市经济脆弱性具有明显的空间特征,经历了东西高、中部低到整体较高的演变过程;（3）阻碍河西走廊地区城市经济脆弱性降低的障碍因子由适应能力逐步转变为暴露度。针对河西走廊地区各市主要障碍因子,提出针对性优化措施。     

海洋环境对猎雷声呐探测识别的影响及对策建议

猎雷是各海军强国重点发展方向,猎雷作战中首要的就是探测识别水雷。从传播损失、混响、 目标强度以及海流、潮汐等多个方面分析了海洋环境对猎雷声呐探测识别的影响,并从猎雷作战角度提出了有关参数设置、作战方式、数据处理等对策建议,可为部队探测识别水雷等目标提供有效参考。     

Grey relational analysis on the relation between marine environmental factors and oxidation-reduction potential

The effects of marine environmental factors-temperature(T),dissolved oxygen(DO),salinity(S) and pH-on the oxidation-reduction potential(ORP) of natural seawater were studied in laboratory.The results show an indistinct relationship between these four factors and the ORP,but they did impact the ORP.Common mathematical methods were not applicable for describing the relationship.Therefore,a grey relational analysis(GRA) method was developed.The degrees of correlation were calculated according to GRA and the va...     

Soil Organic Carbon Contents and Stocks in Coastal Salt Marshes with Spartina alterniflora Following an Invasion Chronosequence in the Yellow River Delta,China

Plant invasion alters the fundamental structure and function of native ecosystems by affecting the biogeochemical pools and fluxes of materials and energy. Native(Suaeda salsa) and invasive(Spartina alterniflora) salt marshes were selected to study the effects of Spartina alterniflora invasion on soil organic carbon(SOC) contents and stocks in the Yellow River Delta. Results showed that the SOC contents(g/kg) and stocks(kg/m~2) were significantly increased(P 0.05) after Spartina alterniflora invasion of seven years, especially for the surface soil layer(0–20 cm). The SOC contents exhibited an even distribution along the soil profiles in native salt marshes, while the SOC contents were gradually decreased with depth after Spartina alterniflora invasion of seven years. The natural ln response ratios(Ln RR) were applied to identify the effects of short-term Spartina alterniflora invasion on the SOC stocks. We also found that Spartina alterniflora invasion might cause soil organic carbon losses in a short-term phase(2–4 years in this study) due to the negative Ln RR values, especially for 20–60 cm depth. And the SOCD in surface layer(0–20 cm) do not increase linearly with the invasive age. Spearman correlation analysis revealed that silt + clay content was exponentially related with SOC in surface layer(Adjusted R~2 = 0.43, P 0.001), suggesting that soil texture could play a key role in SOC sequestration of coastal salt marshes.     

松辽盆地北部三分量地震勘探方法及效果

松辽盆地北部三分量地震勘探的主要任务是检测天然气的分布范围,预测岩性油气藏。三分量地震勘探的最大难点是采集上压制随机干扰,处理上去除转换波剖面上同相轴的人为的直立错断（由于通常处理软件不佳引起）。着重介绍了三分量地震勘探的采集原理和处理方法。本次试验取得了良好的三分量剖面。