年轻星天体的质量

质量是恒星最基本、最重要的物理量之一,它在恒星形成和演化过程中起着至关重要的作用.年轻星天体的形成机制以及早期演化过程是彻底解决恒星形成问题的关键所在,而年轻星天体形成过程中的物质下落、质量吸积以及外流等物理过程都与年轻星天体的质量密切相关.该文介绍了确定年轻星天体质量的一些常用方法,包括利用开普勒定律的动力学方法、赫罗图方法、年轻星天体脉动方法和磁层吸积方法等.并对这些方法的适用范围及测量精度进行了评述,还综述了各种方法的研究进展及未来可能的发展.     

2008年春季中国南方冰雪冻害林木折损分析

An abrupt ice and snow storm disaster which occurred in the spring of 2008 se-verely destroyed forests over a surprisingly large portion of southern China.A transect crossing Jinggang Mountain-Jitai Basin-Yushan Mountain-Wuyi Mountain was selected as the study area.The authors integrated field data collected in two field surveys to analyze the impacts of the disturbance on forests.The following results were obtained.(1) The extent of damage to plantations along the transect decreased in the order of slash pine > masson pine > mixed plantation > Chinese fir.Slash pine is an introduced species from southern America which is characterized by fast growth,low wood quality and rich oleoresin,and showed a damage rate of 61.3% of samples,of which 70.4% cannot recover naturally.Masson pine is the native pioneer species of forests with harder wood,and 52.5% were damaged due to turpentine,of which 60.9% cannot recovery naturally.Chinese fir is a local tree species and samples showed a rate of 46% and a relative rate of 32.5%,lower than the mixed plantation.(2) From west to east along the transect,we can see that evergreen broad-leaved forest of the western transect on Jinggang Mountain showed the lightest damage extent,and a Cryp-tomeria plantation at an altitude of 700 m was severely destroyed while Chinese fir showed light damage below 700 m and relatively severe damage above 900 m.Masson pine and slash pine in the central transect in Jitai Basin were damaged severely due to turpentine ac-tivities,and closed natural secondary deciduous broad-leaved forest was damaged severely due to high ice and snow accumulation on intertwined shrubs.Masson pine aerial-seeding plantations below 400 m along the eastern transect in Xingguo and Ningdu counties were nearly undamaged for small tree sizes,and Chinese fir at 500-900 m altitude showed a lighter damage extent.However,masson pine which was distributed above 400 m and planted in the 1960s,was severely damaged due to turpentine.     

西藏鄂雅错盐湖砷和汞的分布特征研究

本研究对西藏鄂雅错盐湖和主要支流中不同形态的砷(亚砷酸盐As(Ⅲ)、砷酸盐As(Ⅴ)、一甲基砷酸MMA、二甲基砷酸DMA)和总汞(THg)含量进行了测定,并与主要水质参数进行相关性分析研究,结果表明鄂雅错盐湖As主要以As(Ⅴ)形态存在,其次分别为As(Ⅲ)、DMA和MMA,其中无机砷的含量明显大于有机砷。相比较其他砷的形态,盐湖中As(Ⅲ)与主要水质参数的相关性显著,与总溶解性固体(TDS)、总溶解态氮(DTN)呈显著的强正相关性,与水温、溶解氧 (DO)、氧化还原电位(Eh)、pH呈显著负相关性。总汞浓度较低,且与主要水质参数相关性不显著。通过风险评价发现鄂雅错湖水中砷存在一定的致癌健康风险,汞不存在风险。本研究丰富了西藏盐湖和支流水体中砷、汞分布特征及其环境影响因素的认识,对于环境保护具有一定的意义。     

水资源约束下的河西走廊城市经济脆弱性时空演变及其影响因素

城市经济脆弱性作为当前脆弱性研究中的重要领域,为人-地系统耦合研究提供了新的视角,并为城市可持续健康发展提供有益的决策支持和管理方法。依据城市经济脆弱性内涵,基于暴露度、敏感性、适应能力构建了城市经济脆弱性评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法评价河西走廊地区及区域内五市的城市经济脆弱性,并采用障碍度模型识别影响区域城市经济脆弱性变化的因素。结果显示：（1）2006—2015年,河西走廊地区城市经济脆弱性呈现出先曲折下降（2006—2011年）再波动上升趋势（2012—2015年）;（2）河西走廊地区的城市经济脆弱性具有明显的空间特征,经历了东西高、中部低到整体较高的演变过程;（3）阻碍河西走廊地区城市经济脆弱性降低的障碍因子由适应能力逐步转变为暴露度。针对河西走廊地区各市主要障碍因子,提出针对性优化措施。     

Application of an ice-ocean coupled model to Bohai Sea ice simulation

The HAMSOM(Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model),a high-resolution regional ice-ocean coupled model,was applied to investigate the seasonal evolution of Bohai Sea ice for winter 2015/2016.HAM SOM was initialized with monthly climatological temperature and salinity data from WOA13 and driven by hourly meteorological data obtained from the NCEP above the sea surface and tides at the open boundary.The ice model used here is a modified Hibler-type dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model based upon viscous-plastic rheology.The ice extent,concentration,area,thickness,length of ice season as well as the distance between the top of Liaodong Bay(North China) and the outer ice edge line were simulated and compared with the observed data.Three types of modeling experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of wind,tide,and both wind and tide on Bohai Sea ice.The re sults show that wind,as both a dynamic and a thermodynamic factor,has a significant impact on the ice thickness,ice area,and ice-freezing and ice breakup dates as well as the ice velocity,while tides are a dynamic factor that influences only the ice velocity.During the severe ice period,the wind speed intensity increased by 25%,the average ice thickness thickened by approximately 4.0 cm in Liaodong B ay,approximately 2.1 cm in Bohai B ay and approximately2.5 cm in Laizhou B ay,and the total ice coverage area and total ice actual area increased by about 2×10~4 km~2 and 1.4×10~4 km2,respectively.While the tidal amplitude intensity increased by 25%,the average ice velocity increased by approximately 0.1 m/s.     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

厄尔尼诺与亚洲季风对港澳地区降雨影响

分析研究了香港1853～1997年（145年）、澳门1901～1997年（97年）的月和年降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是：（1）香港、澳门年降雨量存在准2～6年的周期振荡，澳门年降雨量有很强的长期趋势，香港年降雨量无明显趋势；（2）香港、澳门年内雨量的峰值出现在西南季风期（6月和8月），而谷值在东北季风期（12月）；（3）EI Nino事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为正，降雨偏多。在La Nila事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为负，降雨偏少。     

Risk assessment of maize drought disaster in southwest China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model

The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was 0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.     

祁连山南坡灌丛草甸生物量变化与水热因子的关系研究

通过野外调研和室内实验,研究了祁连山南坡灌丛草甸地上生物量的生长季变化,并对地上生物量与水热因子的关系进行了探讨。结果表明：在不同区域群落结构有所不同,覆盖度越低,上层和下层的植物高度越低,丰富度和多样性越小。但均匀度还受草场退化阶段的影响,群落结构相对稳定,植物的均匀度越高;地上生物量的年内变化是单峰曲线,乌鞘岭和门源的地上生物量在7月份最大,祁连和野牛沟的地上生物量在9月份最大;地上生物量的积累与前1月和前2月的气温和降水正相关,与前4月的气温也正相关,并且对气温变化的敏感性大于降水,但与地温和土壤水分的相关性不明显,前1月表层地温较高对地上生物量的积累有积极作用;对于地上生物量积累,日气温、日相对湿度、降水量有直接正向作用,而日最高气温、日最低气温、日水汽压有直接负向作用,5 cm、20 cm地温和0~10 cm、20~30 cm土壤水分也有直接正向作用,而10 cm地温和10~20 cm土壤水分也有直接负向作用。     

兰州市城区河道表层沉积物地球化学元素分布特征

通过对兰州市河道表层沉积物地球化学元素分析发现,兰州市河道表层沉积物41种地球化学元素富集因子多小于1,Cl、S、P、Bi、Cr、Cu、Pb、Sn、U、W、Zn富集因子值均大于2,显示了较高的污染水平。对单个采样点总富集因子的分析研究发现,R值均大于2,显示出较多的富集。其中水磨沟下游和鱼儿沟下游富集因子出现高值,显示出严重污染。元素来源研究结果显示,兰州市河道表层沉积物地球化学元素的来源可分为3类:①生活污水排放以及雨水对地面或街道的冲刷作用;②工业污染,包括冶金、电镀、农药和化肥等污水的排放;③本地土壤类型灰钙土中元素的贡献。通过粒度与元素相关性分析可知,元素P、Cl主要分布于细颗粒物质中,反映了兰州市河道表层沉积物污染物质在细颗粒中有较大量的富集。