Two Methods for Predicting Reliability Index and Critical Probabilistic Slip Surface of Soil Slopes

Two methods of reliability analysis of soil slopes are studied, and the representative flow charts of both methods are illustrated. Method 1 can predict the reliability index and the critical probabilistic slip surface directly and it is computational efficient, but it needs the development of new codes for integrating the reliability analysis code and the slope stability code. Method 2 makes the reliability analysis code call the slope stability analysis code directly, and each code can be considered as an intact part. The main result of Method 2 is the reliability index of soil slope. Combined with the proposed method for locating the critical slip surface, Method 2 can also predict the probabilistic slip surface. Although Method 2 needs much more callings of the subprogram of slope stability analysis code, it needs not the developing of new computer program. Thus, Method 2 is easy to use and can be applied to different reliability analysis methods and slope stability analysis methods.     

基于挟沙力的三峡水库泥沙淤积形态分析

三峡水库蓄水运用后,泥沙淤积主要分布在常年库区的宽谷和弯道,峡谷则无累积性淤积。基于实测资料计算了三峡成库前（2001年）和成库后（2003-2011年）的挟沙力,结果表明挟沙力随着不同运行阶段坝前水位的抬高而逐步降低,宽谷河段降低幅度较大,峡谷河段降低幅度较小,泥沙淤积比率逐步增大。宽谷河段挟沙力普遍降至含沙量以下而发生淤积,峡谷河段挟沙力仍大于含沙量而无累积性淤积。流量越大,宽谷河段的挟沙力越小于含沙量,而峡谷河段的挟沙力越大于含沙量,表明宽谷河段淤积主要发生在汛期,而峡谷河段汛期以冲刷为主。由于细颗粒泥沙絮凝沉降以及黏性淤积物难以冲刷,恢复饱和系数淤积取1、冲刷取0.01得到的沿程淤积量计算值与实测值吻合较好。弯道河段计算的淤积量与实测值差异较大,表明弯道河段二维特征明显,利用一维的挟沙力计算淤积量不能适用。     

Study on the Temporal-Spatial Evolution of Prehistoric Settlements and Its Correlation with Subsistence Strategy and Climate History in the Western Liao River Area

Western Liao River area is one of the most important birthplaces of agricultural civilization in northern China. With recent works like relics survey, site excavation and environmental archaeology going further, the time sequence, cultural content and subsistence strategy history of this area are getting explicit. Questions like ancient exploiting history of natural resources, climate background and cultural impact of subsistence strategy have been paid great attention. Traditional environmental archaeology methods like plant and animal remains analysis are mostly utilized to conduct in-site investigation, current studies rarely adopt quantitative methods to examine the sites’ macro temporal-spatial distribution and aggregation pattern. Based on abundant digitized relic survey data, GIS methods like kernel density analysis are utilized to indicate the temporal-spatial distribution and aggregation pattern of prehistoric cultures in Western Liao River area. The latitudinal, longitudinal and altitudinal migrations of site distributional core are indicated by 3D perspective shift and elevation statistics. By referencing existing studies on subsistence strategy and paleoclimate history, results of spatial analysis are used to reveal the correlation among sites’ temporal-spatial distribution, subsistence strategy adopted and climate variation. This also contributes to our understanding and utilization of massive locational information of prehistoric sites in ancient man-land relationship study.     

Study on the Global Carbon Assimilation System Based on Multisource Remote Sensing Data

The Paris agreement signed in April, 2016 aims to balance global anthropogenic carbon emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks by the middle of the 21^st century. To fulfill this goal, it is necessary to calculate carbon fluxes of different regions reliably. The global carbon assimilation system is an effective technique for achieving this goal. The Ministry of Science and Technology of China supports the project entitled as study on the global carbon assimilation system based on multisource remote sensing data through the national key research and development programs for global change and adaptation during the thirteen-five period. This project will develop synergic inversion techniques for retrieving key parameters of biological and atmospheric cycles and for assimilating multisource remote sensing and ground based data. Then, the high resolution global carbon assimilation system coupled with an ecological model will be constructed. This system is able to assimilate jointly multisource observation data and to optimize key model parameters, photosynthesis and respiration carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems, and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions. This system will be used to study quantitatively the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions and to identify the mechanisms driving the global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources. The outputs of this study will be helpful for the fulfillment of the key research and development programs for global change and adaptation and provide valuable data and technical support for the decision-making in China.     

A Method for Automatically Selecting Aids to Navigation Based on their Spatial Influence Domains

To address the limitations of manually selecting aids to navigation (AtNs) on charts, a method for automatically selecting AtNs based on their spatial influence domains (SIDs) is proposed. First, the associations between the spatial attributes of an AtN are analyzed. Second, an SID of the AtN is defined, and a model of the SID is constructed based on the associations between the spatial attributes. Third, the importance of the location of the AtN is weighted based on the SID model. Fourth, an algorithm to automatically select AtNs based on the maximum coverage of the SIDS of preselected AtNs is developed. Finally, several AtNs are selected automatically using the algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate that (1) the proposed method can automatically select AtNs and the results comply with the requirements; (2) the automatic selection can eliminate the human-induced errors or the inconsistent results of manual selections from different operators; and (3) the efficiency of the proposed method is higher than that of current manual methods.     

动力学模型预测深海鲣鱼(Katsuwonus pelamis)调理食品常温下的货架期

为了预测鲣鱼(Katsuwonus pelamis)调理食品的货架期,将鲣鱼调理食品贮藏在25°C、30°C、35°C温度条件下,通过测定在贮藏期间菌落总数、挥发性盐基氮、过氧化值三个指标的变化,分别对这三个指标与贮藏时间、温度建立一级动力学模型,来预测鲣鱼调理食品的货架期。经计算得出,菌落总数预测模型中的活化能(Ea)及指前因子(k0)分别为30.96 k J/mol和2.06×103,挥发性盐基氮预测模型中的的活化能及指前因子分别为24.35 k J/mol和75.1,过氧化值预测模型中的活化能及指前因子分别为48.75 k J/mol和2.92×106。在32°C和37°C条件下验证动力学模型,结果表明相对误差分别为–5.52%和–6.45%,准确性较好。进一步推算得出,在18°C和23°C常温下贮藏鲣鱼调理食品,产品的货架期为209d和172d。     

The characteristics of rill development and their effects on runoff and sediment yield under different slope gradients

Rill formation is the predominant erosion process in slope land in the Loess Plateau, China. This study was conducted to investigate rill erosion characteristics and their effects on runoff and sediment yielding processes under different slope gradients at a rate of 10°, 15°, 20° and 25° with rainfall intensity of 1.5 mm min-1 in a laboratory setting. Results revealed that mean rill depth and rill density has a positive interrelation to the slope gradient. To the contrary, width-depth ratio and distance of the longest rill to the top of the slope negatively related to slope gradient. All these suggested that increasing slope steepness could enhance rill headward erosion, vertical erosion and the fragmentation of the slope surface. Furthermore,total erosion tended to approach a stable maximum value with increasing slope, which implied that there is probably a threshold slope gradient where soil erosion begins to weaken. At the same time, the correlation analysis showed that there was a close connection between slope gradient and the variousindices of soil erosion: the correlation coefficients of slope gradient with maximal rill depth, number of rills and the distance of the longest rill from the top of the slope were 0.98, 0.97 and-0.98, respectively,indicating that slope gradient is the major factor of affecting the development of rills. Furthermore,runoff was not sensitive to slope gradient and rill formation in this study. Sediment concentration,however, is positively related to slope gradient and rill formation, the sediment concentrations increased rapidly after rill initiation, especially. These results may be essential for soil loss prediction.     

Risk assessment of maize drought disaster in southwest China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model

The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was 0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.     

Size distributions and source function of sea spray aerosol over the South China Sea

The number concentrations in the radius range of 0.06 – 5 μm of aerosol particles and meteorological parameters were measured on board during a cruise in the South China Sea from August 25 to October 12, 2012. Effective fluxes in the reference height of 10 m were estimated by steady state dry deposition method based on the observed data, and the influences of different air masses on flux were discussed in this paper. The number size distribution was characterized by a bimodal mode, with the average total number concentration of(1.50 ± 0.76)×10~3 cm~(-3). The two mode radii were 0.099 μm and 0.886 μm, both of which were within the scope of accumulation mode. A typical daily average size distribution was compared with that measured in the Bay of Bengal. In the whole radius range, the number concentrations were in agreement with each other; the modes were more distinct in this study than that abtained in the Bay of Bengal. The size distribution of the fluxes was fitted with the sum of log-normal and power-law distribution. The impact of different air masses was mainly on flux magnitude, rather than the shape of spectral distribution. A semiempirical source function that is applicable in the radius range of 0.06 μmr_(80)0.3 μm with the wind speed varying from 1.00 m s~(-1) to 10.00 m s~(-1) was derived.