Scenarios of land cover in China

A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.     

贺兰山地区大气气溶胶光学特征研究

利用M－120型太阳光度表的观测资料并结合有关资料，分析了贺兰山地区大气气溶胶的光学特征，并对在各类天气条件下，大气气溶胶光学厚度以及Angstrom浑浊度系数和波长指数的变化规律进行了讨论。利用实测地面大气气溶胶粒子谱资料，探讨了大气气溶胶粒子数浓度与Angstrom浑浊系数β之间的关系以及大气气溶胶粒子几可平均尺度与波长指数α之间的相关关系。     

气候变化对中国中纬度半干旱草原生产力影响机理的模拟研究

应用大气植被相互作用模式(AVIM)模拟了内蒙古半干旱草原的净初级生产力和生物量。在此基础上,通过气温和降水变化的敏感性控制试验探讨了气候变化对草地初级生产力的影响机理。研究表明,无论是降水或温度的变化对草地的生产力都有显著影响。降水增加,生产力增加。而温度增加,生产力下降。气候变化对生产力影响的机理是:降水增加改善了土壤的水分供给条件,增强了光合速率,从而提高了生产力。温度增高,一方面可以增加光合速率,另一方面却使蒸散加强,土壤变干,光合速率下降,而后一作用过程在半干旱地区大于前者,因而温度增高使生产力下降。单一气候因子敏感性试验表明,温度增高或降低2℃,年净初级生产力(NPP)变化约20%,中纬度半干旱草地地上生物量可以改变30%以上。降水量变化50%,年NPP改变37%,地上生物量将改变近30%。     

Efficient Anomalous Forcings for Linear Problems

For linear forcing problems, a method is developed to provide a set of forcing modes which form a complete orthonormal basis for the finite-time response to steady forcing in the energy inner product space. The forcing modes are found by calculating eigenvectors of a positive definite and symmetric matrix determined from given equations of motion. The amplitude of responses to forcing modes is given in terms of the associated eigenvalues. This method is used in a nondivergent barotropic model linearized about the 300 hPa zonally-varying climatological flow both for northern summertime and wintertime. The results show that the amplitude of response varies considerably with different forcing modes. Only a few of forcing modes associated with the leading eigenvalues, called efficient forcing mode, can excite significant response. The efficient forcing modes possess highly localized spatial structure with wavetrain appearance. Most of the efficient forcings are located to the south of regions of the jet cor     

Tianjin photographic zenith tube observations

In this paper we analyse the observational data obtained by the Chinese-made PZT in the two periods 1979 Feb – 1980 May and 1981 Dec – 1983 March. The internal accuracy of single star is found to be m_u = ±13.0 ms, m_φ = ±0. “144 for the first period, and m_u = ±14.6 ms, m_φ = ±0.” 152 for the second. Correction of star position is found by the chain method. The systematic error caused by the sealed window of the evacuated chamber and the temperature effect of the plate scale are investigated. Monthly means of time and latitude are given.     

杭州湾海水中钾、钠、钙、镁、锶和硫酸根的迁移变化研究

以氯度作为保守性指数研究了杭州湾海区由于离子强度的变化水体中钾、钠、钙、镁、锶和硫酸根离子的保守性、非保守性行为,结果发现在测定相对误差分别为±０．２％ ,±０．５％ ,±０．５ ％ ,±０．２％ ,±０ ．５ ％ 时,钾、钠、镁、硫酸根在整个氯度范围内表现为保守性;锶在整个氯度范围内没有规律性的“迁入”或“迁出”行为;钙的不保守行为表现为在氯度６ ～８ 之间有明显的“迁入”,其在低氯和高氯区则具有较好的保守性。并对此结果作了初步探讨。     

一种研究贫金属星重元素丰度分布的方法

以重元素核合成理论及星系化学演化理论所得结论为基础,提出了一种利用３ 种中子俘获过程的典型元素丰度观测值,研究在不同金属度下不同核合成过程对重元素丰度的贡献的方法．由此可以确定ｒ过程与ｓ过程的贡献比例,并可用此方法来计算其余重元素丰度,得到关于重元素核合成的重要信息．利用这种方法计算了贫金属星ＨＤ６２６４４ 、ＨＤ１２６２３８和ＨＤ１８４７１１ 的重元素丰度,并将计算结果与观测结果进行了比较、分析和讨论了计算结果的物理意义     

湖泊沉积物有机质δ13C所揭示的环境气候信息

根据我国不同纬度和高海拔地区青藏高原东部地区湖泊沉积物有机质δ＾１３Ｃ组成特征的分析,就其揭示的环境气候意义作了探讨。研究表明,湖泊沉积物有机质δ＾１３Ｃ波动间接地反映气候冷暖的波动,但高原与平原地区湖泊沉积物有机质δ＾１３Ｃ值变化具有不同的环境气候意义。这与陆生植物Ｃ３及Ｃ４植物的分布密切相关,据此初步划分为三种有机质δ＾１３Ｃ古气候类型。     

大布苏湖沉积剖面有机碳同位素特征与古环境

１９９４年９月,在吉林省大布苏湖湖盆东部,获取了总厚度为８．１０ｍ沉积剖面样品。以１０ｃｍ间隔采样,对样品中有机质成分及稳定碳同位素研究表明,沉积物中有机质主要来源于陆源高等植物,沉积物中有机物的δ＾１３Ｃ值指示了源生物的特征。在暖干时期,沉积物中有机质具有较高的δ＾１３Ｃ值;反之,冷湿时期,沉积物中有机质的δ＾１３Ｃ值降低,结合剖面碳酸盐含量及＾１４Ｃ年代分析表明,湖区１５０００年来经历了多期冷     

基于发展权价值评估的太湖东部水源保护区生态补偿标准

生态补偿是协调环境保护与区域发展机会公平的重要手段.太湖东部湖区是苏州市、嘉兴市和上海市重要饮用水源供给地.本文分析了苏州市滨湖地区水源地水质保护行为与发展权价值损失的关系.应用区域比较法,在地理要素修正的基础上评价了太湖东部水源保护区发展权价值损失,以此作为生态补偿的标准.研究表明,2009年太湖东部地区水质保护行为的发展权损失为42.39亿元,地方财政收入损失占75.88%;农民收入损失占13.58%;城镇居民收入损失占10.53%.为了缩小城乡居民的收入差距,应优先对农民实施生态补偿.水质保护行为产生的外部收益超出了水源供给价值,需要在更大范围内统筹生态补偿问题.