The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.     

洪山预测区煤层赋存的可能性分析

分析了洪山预测区西部洪山岩体地质特征及其向外围扩散的范围和程度，研究了北掌勘查区和焦窑煤矿两邻区煤层受岩浆岩影响的程度，认为洪山岩体对预测区煤系及煤层赋存的影响较小，岩体外围仍有煤系赋存。为下一步找煤指明了方向。     

Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

两个冰期-间冰期旋回的黄土记录及其古气候意义

北京邻区枣沟、斋堂和赤峰黄土－古土壤剖面粒度和磁化率变化在幅度和相位上都有明显的差异。在两个冰期－间冰期旋回，磁化率记录具有冰量变化模式，而粒度记录具有轨道周期特点，粒度和磁化率之间的相位关系在从冰期向间冰期转换和冰期向间冰期过渡的过程中，既有滞后也有超前的表现，很难单纯以成土作用来解释。由于黄土粒度主要反映粉尘源区环境和古风场强度的变化，而磁化率主要记录的是沉积区的成壤作用，反映夏季风的强度变化，因此剖面粒度和磁化率变化的不协调说明古风场和粉尘源区变化与粉尘沉积区气候变化之间不统一。这可能意味着控制夏季风强度变化和控制冬季风强度变化的机制存在差异。     

Estimates of lichen growth–rate in northern Sweden

Two lichenometric techniques were compared in a study of lichen growth–rate in northern Sweden. The first technique, based on the maximum lichen diameter on glacier moraines, was identical to the technique used in the 1970s, whereas the other utilized the lichen diameter measured on 100 randomly selected boulders. The results indicate that it does not matter which technique is chosen, as long as the technique is used consistently on both the calibration surfaces and the surfaces to be dated. The use of data from both the 1970s and the 2000s increased the number of calibration surfaces available. The new calibration curve indicates that the age of Little Ice Age moraines was underestimated by up to about 30 years in the study conducted in the 1970s.     

The electrical structure of the Slave craton

The Slave craton in northwestern Canada, a relatively small Archean craton (600×400 km), is ideal as a natural laboratory for investigating the formation and evolution of Mesoarchean and Neoarchean sub-continental lithospheric mantle (SCLM). Excellent outcrop and the discovery of economic diamondiferous kimberlite pipes in the centre of the craton during the early 1990s have led to an unparalleled amount of geoscientific information becoming available.

Over the last 5 years deep-probing electromagnetic surveys were conducted on the Slave, using the natural-source magnetotelluric (MT) technique, as part of a variety of programs to study the craton and determine its regional-scale electrical structure. Two of the four types of surveys involved novel MT data acquisition; one through frozen lakes along ice roads during winter, and the second using ocean-bottom MT instrumentation deployed from float planes.

The primary initial objective of the MT surveys was to determine the geometry of the topography of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) across the Slave craton. However, the MT responses revealed, completely serendipitously, a remarkable anomaly in electrical conductivity in the SCLM of the central Slave craton. This Central Slave Mantle Conductor (CSMC) anomaly is modelled as a localized region of low resistivity (10–15 Ω m) beginning at depths of 80–120 km and striking NE–SW. Where precisely located, it is spatially coincident with the Eocene-aged kimberlite field in the central part of the craton (the so-called “Corridor of Hope”), and also with a geochemically defined ultra-depleted harzburgitic layer interpreted as oceanic or arc-related lithosphere emplaced during early tectonism. The CSMC lies wholly within the NE–SW striking central zone defined by Grütter et al. [Grütter, H.S., Apter, D.B., Kong, J., 1999. Crust–mantle coupling; evidence from mantle-derived xenocrystic garnets. Contributed paper at: The 7th International Kimberlite Conference Proceeding, J.B. Dawson Volume, 1, 307–313] on the basis of garnet geochemistry (G10 vs. G9) populations.

Deep-probing MT data from the lake bottom instruments infer that the conductor has a total depth-integrated conductivity (conductance) of the order of 2000 Siemens, which, given an internal resistivity of 10–15 Ω m, implies a thickness of 20–30 km. Below the CSMC the electrical resistivity of the lithosphere increases by a factor of 3–5 to values of around 50 Ω m. This change occurs at depths consistent with the graphite–diamond transition, which is taken as consistent with a carbon interpretation for the CSMC.

Preliminary three-dimensional MT modelling supports the NE–SW striking geometry for the conductor, and also suggests a NW dip. This geometry is taken as implying that the tectonic processes that emplaced this geophysical–geochemical body are likely related to the subduction of a craton of unknown provenance from the SE (present-day coordinates) during 2630–2620 Ma. It suggests that the lithospheric stacking model of Helmstaedt and Schulze [Helmstaedt, H.H., Schulze, D.J., 1989. Southern African kimberlites and their mantle sample: implications for Archean tectonics and lithosphere evolution. In Ross, J. (Ed.), Kimberlites and Related Rocks, Vol. 1: Their Composition, Occurrence, Origin, and Emplacement. Geological Society of Australia Special Publication, vol. 14, 358–368] is likely correct for the formation of the Slave's current SCLM.     

副热带高压活动与日月运行的关系

依据公开发表的资料，系统地研究了副热带高压活动与日月运行的关系，证实了各类副高活动均与日月运行的某些周期活动有关，主要表现形式为周期性泊松联系和与天文奇异蹼同步效应两种，并且指出，副高活动类型不同，则所对应的联系对象和联系方式也不同。     

辽东早元古代裂谷多金属硫铁矿地质及其成矿规律

辽东早元古代地层内赋存着一系列多金属硫铁矿床。矿床的形成与分布主要受裂谷盆地演化及含矿建造控制。在不同的演化阶段分别形成了含钴黄铁矿 含铜黄铁矿 含硬石膏黄铁矿矿床系列和含硼（镁电气石）磁黄铁矿 含铅锌黄铁矿 重晶石闪锌黄铁矿矿床系列。依据成矿特征可分为海底火山喷气沉积与海底喷气沉积两种成因类型。成矿作用受裂谷、次级盆地、一定含矿层位和特殊容矿岩石相互联系与配套的控矿因素制约。在对成矿规律研究的基础上将该区多金属硫铁矿划分为６个成矿远景区。     

斜向坡变形破坏机制的数值模拟研究

本文讨论了斜向坡的旋转式变形和破坏机制，用有限元法计算了此种斜坡中的剩余下滑力的分布方式，并以此来解释在滑动过程中发生一定旋转的原因；论文还运用离散元法，模拟了此种滑坡的滑动过程。     

自然灾害研究中几个观念问题的讨论

本文从人类生活环境系统的整体观角度讨论了自然灾害的两重性、关连性及人类圈之形成和生态环境保护问题。认为自然灾害从短时间尺度和小范围看是灾变, 从长时间尺度和大范围看是一种自调节、自平衡过程；自然灾害与人类社会存在着双向效应关系；自然灾害的关联性(群发共生现象)是由其同源性、链发性和韵律性决定的；人类圈是地球演化进入新阶段的产物, 它具有进行层次深、作用强度高、活动领域宽和通过信息实现调控的特点。建立上述观念, 对灾害研究、减轻灾害损失, 走可持续发展的道路, 都具有重要意义。