A new set of integrals of motion to propagate the perturbed two-body problem

A formulation of the perturbed two-body problem that relies on a new set of orbital elements is presented. The proposed method represents a generalization of the special perturbation method published by Peláez et al. (Celest Mech Dyn Astron 97(2):131–150, 2007) for the case of a perturbing force that is partially or totally derivable from a potential. We accomplish this result by employing a generalized Sundman time transformation in the framework of the projective decomposition, which is a known approach for transforming the two-body problem into a set of linear and regular differential equations of motion. Numerical tests, carried out with examples extensively used in the literature, show the remarkable improvement of the performance of the new method for different kinds of perturbations and eccentricities. In particular, one notable result is that the quadratic dependence of the position error on the time-like argument exhibited by Peláez’s method for near-circular motion under the $J_{2}$ perturbation is transformed into linear. Moreover, the method reveals to be competitive with two very popular element methods derived from the Kustaanheimo-Stiefel and Sperling-Burdet regularizations.     

Multicollinearity in cross-sectional regressions

The paper examines robustness of results from cross-sectional regression paying attention to the impact of multicollinearity. It is well known that the reliability of estimators (least-squares or maximum-likelihood) gets worse as the linear relationships between the regressors become more acute. We resolve the discussion in a spatial context, looking closely into the behaviour shown, under several unfavourable conditions, by the most outstanding misspecification tests when collinear variables are added to the regression. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed. The conclusions point to the fact that these statistics react in different ways to the problems posed.     

The role of hydrological processes in ecosystem conservation: Comprehensive water management for a wetland in an arid climate

Water agreements between Mexico and the United States have been crucial to preserving and restoring the Colorado River Delta's wetlands. Nowadays, increased water demand and climate change in the Colorado River Basin could threaten the conservation of the Ciénega de Santa Clara, a 4709 ha coastal wetland at the Sonoran Desert's edge. The international Ramsar convention recognizes the Ciénega de Santa Clara ecosystem for providing vital ecological services, including habitat for endemic, endangered, and migratory species. The hydrology of this wetland has not been completely understood since the 2010–2011 trial run of the Yuma Desalting Plant. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify and quantify the hydrological elements essential for the conservation of this wetland, under three scenarios: (a) normal inflow conditions of the water source – the Wellton-Mohawk canal; (b) inflow reductions, and; (c) an increase of temperature due to global warming. Water and mass balances estimates were conducted every month during 2014–2015; in situ measurements of inflows were carried out on Southern International Boundary in Wellton-Mohawk canal, the Riíto Drain, groundwater, and precipitation: evapotranspiration outputs were estimated using local weather stations and Penman-Monteith formulations. Temperature increases were based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections for the next 100 years. Results showed disconnection in the surface flow of water from the wetland to the adjacent Gulf of California. This behaviour was observed mainly in the summer months in the three scenarios. The disconnections reduced the wetland area and water storage. The hydrological functionality of the Ciénega de Santa Clara wetland depends on the water supply from the Wellton-Mohawk canal, with a minimum continuous discharge of 5.10 m³ s⁻¹ during the summer months.     

Assessment of the physico-mechanical behaviour of gypsum-lime repair mortars as a function of curing time

Gypsum-based mortars were widely used during the Mudejar artistic period in Spain from the 12th to 16th century. During restoration works, compatibility between the new repair mortars and the original components is essential for an adequate intervention on the monument. The increasing interest of knowing the properties of the gypsum-lime-based mortars for restoration purposes justifies the research carried out. Different mortars compatible with traditional building materials were elaborated by varying the binder proportions, the type of aggregates, the binder/aggregate ratios and the curing time. The main goal of this paper is to characterize the mechanical behaviour and the pore structure of the mortars as a function of curing time. The influence between the different variables used to prepare the mortars and the development of the carbonation process over time is also considered. Mechanical strength and porosity measurements as well as X-ray diffraction and thermal analysis were performed after curing times of 1, 28 and 90 days. The results obtained confirmed a progressive increase in mechanical strength linked to the carbonation of the mortars prepared. Less lime binder and also aggregate contents showed the highest rise in strength over time, related to the highest initial porosity which favoured the carbon dioxide flow. The use of siliceous aggregates (GL-QS mortars) obtained the best results in the development of physico-mechanical properties over curing time. The knowledge obtained from the studied mortars provides practical information to establish a suitable mortar mixture for restoration works on historic buildings and modern architecture where gypsum-lime-based mortars are used.     

Longitudinal and temporal patterns of benthic coarse particulate organic matter in the Agüera stream (northern Spain)

Benthic coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM) was studied between November 92 and December 93 at four sites along the longitudinal gradient of the Agüera stream system (Northern Spain). CPOM was sorted in four main categories: leaves (several species), fruits and seeds, twigs and debris. Headwater site showed higher densities of total CPOM, leaves and twigs than downstream reaches, but no regular longitudinal pattern of change was noticed. The ranges of mean CPOM standing stock at the sampling sites were 20.5–74.1 g AFDW m^–2 (site B), 9.9–47.7 g AFDW m^–2 (site 5), 4.3–21.4g AFDW m^–2 (site 7) and 9.8–37.9 g AFDW m^–2 (site 9). The particulate matter at downstream sites was in a more advanced stage of breakdown probably as a result of processing and transport from upstream reaches. Leaves species composition of benthic CPOM clearly reflected the type of riparian vegetation at each site. The timing of inputs and the hydrologic regime appeared to act together influencing temporal dynamics of benthic CPOM. A gradual temporal change in species composition of benthic leaf litter was observed under natural mature deciduous forest: first alder, later chestnut and finally oak.     

A millennial‐scale Late Pleistocene–Holocene palaeoclimatic record from the western Chihuahua Desert,Mexico

We present elemental concentrations and magnetic susceptibility data from a new 270‐cm‐long sediment core collected from the western part of palaeolake Babicora and infer millennial‐scale hydrological variations over the last 27 cal. ka in the western Chihuahua Desert. Variations in the available water content at the sediment–air interface of the watershed, lake salinity and lake productivity are inferred from values of the chemical index of alteration (CIA), CaCO ₃ and C_org, respectively. An abrupt increase in runoff at c. 24 cal. ka BP appears correlative with the Heinrich 2 (H2) event. Except for this event, diminished runoff between c. 27 and 19 cal. ka BP indicates lower annual precipitation (weak summer rainfall) during the Last Glacial Maximum. The deposition of chemically altered sediments between c. 25 and 22 cal. ka BP results from the higher sediment–water interaction in the watershed owing to lower evaporation, cooler conditions and higher precipitation during the H2 event. Since 19 cal. ka BP the runoff has been characterized by high‐amplitude fluctuations with intervals of reduced precipitation identified at c. 19, 18, 17.5, 13–14, 11.5, 10, 7.5 and 3 cal. ka BP.     

Soil compaction under different management practices in a Croatian vineyard

The use of machinery in vineyards is increasing soil compaction and erosion. However, there is a lack of information about the impacts of different management practices on soil conditions of vineyards. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess soil compaction in Croatian vineyards under four different management systems: no-tillage (NT) system, conventional tillage (CT), yearly inversed grass covered (INV-GC) and tillage managed (INV-T) treatments. Four key top-soil (0–20 cm) parameters were assessed in the different land uses: bulk density (BD), penetration resistance (PR), soil water content (SWC) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes. Tractor traffic increased the BD and PR in all treatments, with exception of CT treatment, as consequence of tillage. SWC showed higher values in INV-GC treatment during the dry period; meanwhile, it was similar during the wet season in every management type. Lower CO₂ fluxes were found in INV-GC and NT than in the CT and INV-T treatments.     

Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty

Climate change is forecasted to increase the variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Due to potential adverse impacts on crop yields it will have implications for demand of agricultural risk management instruments and farmers’ adaptation strategies. Evidence on climate change impacts on crop yield variability and estimates of production risk from farm surveys in Australia, Canada and Spain, are used to analyse the policy choice between three different types of insurance (individual, area-yield and weather index) and ex post payments. The results are found to be subject to strong uncertainties and depend on the risk profile of different farmers and locations; the paper provides several insights on how to analyse these complexities. In general, area yield performs best more often across our countries and scenarios, in particular for the baseline and marginal climate change (without increases in extreme events). However, area yield can be very expensive if farmers have limited information on how climate change affects yields (misalignment in expectations), and particularly so under extreme climate change scenarios. In these more challenging cases, ex post payments perform well to increase low incomes when the risk is systemic like in Australia; Weather index performs well to reduce the welfare costs of risks when the correlation between yields and index is increased by the extreme events. The paper also analyses the robustness of different instruments in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of different climate change scenarios; highlighting that this added layer of uncertainty could be overcome to provide sound policy advice under uncertainties introduced by climate change. The role of providing information to farmers on impacts of climate change emerges as a crucial result of this paper as indicated by the significantly higher budgetary expenditures occurring across all instruments when farmers’ expectations are misaligned relative to actual impacts of climate change.     

Magma mixing in the subvolcanic environment: petrology of the Gerena interaction zone near Seville,Spain

The mechanisms by which felsic and mafic magmas interact and approach a uniform hybrid composition through the processes of mingling and mixing have been studied in a high-level subvolcanic setting in the Spanish Hercynian at Gerena, near Seville. The compositions involved are calc-alkaline and the situation is one of tonalite-quartz diorite synplutonic dykes injected into a granitic magma chamber. The resulting hybrids include dykes, pillows and globules of tonalite with chilled margins which are variously disrupted and homogenised with the host granite. The present investigation is based on field and petrographic observations of hybridization textures, the identification of different stages in the crystallisation history of the tonalite through mineral textures, and the characterization of mineral compositions at these various stages. Proportions of the end-member magmas involved were obtained by major-oxide mixing models and tested satisfactorily with trace elements. A mechanistic model is presented to account for these observations which involves the early quenching of the tonalite when it was emplaced into the granite magma chamber. After high temperature crystallization had occurred the two magmas attained thermal equilibrium and disruption of the tonalite in the high energy regime of this subvolcanic complex resulted in dispersion of fragments and crystals through the granite giving rise to hybrid granodiorite compositions. It is argued that such high-energy flow conditions are a necessary requirement for effective hybridization in this environment in contrast to most large-scale magma chamber settings where mixing is driven by thermal and buoyancy contrasts.