Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes

Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework.     

57-second oscillations in Nova Centauri 1986 (V842 Cen)

High-speed photometry in 2008 shows that the light curve of V842 Cen possesses a coherent modulation at 56.825 s, with sidebands at 56.598 and 57.054 s. These have appeared since this nova remnant was observed in 2000 and 2002. We deduce that the dominant signal is the rotation period of the white dwarf primary and the sidebands are caused by reprocessing from a surface moving with an orbital period of 3.94 h. Thus, V842 Cen is an intermediate polar (IP) of the DQ Herculis subclass, is the fastest rotating white dwarf among the IPs and is the third fastest known in a cataclysmic variable. As in other IPs, we see no dwarf nova oscillations, but there are often quasi-periodic oscillations in the range 350–1500 s. There is a strong brightness modulation with a period of 3.78 h, which we attribute to negative superhumps, and there is an even stronger signal at 2.886 h which is of unknown origin but is probably a further example of that seen in GW Lib and some other systems. We used the Swift satellite to observe V842 Cen in the ultraviolet and in X-rays, although no periodic modulation was detected in the short observations. The X-ray luminosity of this object appears to be much lower than that of other IPs in which the accretion region is directly visible.     

A very rare triple-peaked type-I X-ray burst in the low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1636−53

We have discovered a triple-peaked X-ray burst from the low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) 4U 1636−53 with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer ( RXTE ). This is the first triple-peaked burst reported from any LMXB using RXTE , and it is only the second burst of this kind observed from any source. (The previous one was also from 4U 1636−53, and was observed with EXOSAT .) From fits to time-resolved spectra, we find that this is not a radius-expansion burst, and the same triple-peaked pattern seen in the X-ray light curve is also present in the bolometric light curve of the burst. Similar to what was previously observed in double-peaked bursts from this source, the radius of the emitting area increases steadily during the burst, with short periods in between during which the radius remains more or less constant. The temperature first increases steeply, and then decreases across the burst also showing three peaks. The first and last peak in the temperature profile occur, respectively, significantly before and after the first and last peaks in the X-ray and bolometric light curves. We found no significant oscillations during this burst. This triple-peaked burst, as well as the one observed with EXOSAT and the double-peak bursts in this source, all took place when 4U 1636−53 occupied a relatively narrow region in the colour–colour diagram, corresponding to a relatively high (inferred) mass-accretion rate. No model presently available is able to explain the multiple-peaked bursts.     

Spin rate distribution of small asteroids

The spin rate distribution of main belt/Mars crossing (MB/MC) asteroids with diameters 3-15 km is uniform in the range from f=1 to 9.5 d⁻¹, and there is an excess of slow rotators with f<1 d⁻¹. The observed distribution appears to be controlled by the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect. The magnitude of the excess of slow rotators is related to the residence time of slowed down asteroids in the excess and the rate of spin rate change outside the excess. We estimated a median YORP spin rate change of ≈0.022 d⁻¹/Myr for asteroids in our sample (i.e., a median time in which the spin rate changes by 1 d⁻¹ is ≈45 Myr), thus the residence time of slowed down asteroids in the excess is ≈110 Myr. The spin rate distribution of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) with sizes in the range 0.2-3 km (∼5 times smaller in median diameter than the MB/MC asteroids sample) shows a similar excess of slow rotators, but there is also a concentration of NEAs at fast spin rates with f=9-10 d⁻¹. The concentration at fast spin rates is correlated with a narrower distribution of spin rates of primaries of binary systems among NEAs; the difference may be due to the apparently more evolved population of binaries among MB/MC asteroids.     

Global impact of a climate treaty if the Human Development Index replaces GDP as a welfare proxy

This study explores the implications of shifting the narrative of climate policy evaluation from one of costs/benefits or economic growth to a message of improving social welfare. Focusing on the costs of mitigation and the associated impacts on gross domestic product (GDP) may translate into a widespread concern that a climate agreement will be very costly. This article considers the well-known Human Development Index (HDI) as an alternative criterion for judging the welfare effects of climate policy. We estimate what the maximum possible annual average increase in HDI welfare per tons of CO₂ would be within the carbon budget associated with limiting warming to 2°C over the period 2015–2050. Emission pathways are determined by a policy that allows the HDI of poor countries and their emissions to increase under a business-as-usual development path, while countries with a high HDI value (>0.8) have to restrain their emissions to ensure that the global temperature rise does not exceed 2°C. For comparison, the well-known multi-regional RICE model is used to assess GDP growth under the same climate change policy goals.

Policy relevance

This is the first study that shifts the narrative of climate policy evaluation from one of GDP growth to a message of improving social welfare, as captured by the HDI. This could make it easier for political leaders and climate negotiators to publicly commit themselves to ambitious carbon emission reduction goals, such as limiting global warming to 2°C, as in the (non-binding) agreement made at COP 21 in Paris in 2015. We find that if impacts are framed in terms of growth in HDI per t CO₂ emission per capita instead of in GDP, the HDI of poor countries and their emissions are allowed to increase under a business-as-usual development path, whereas countries with a high HDI (>0.8) must control emissions so that global temperature rise remains within 2°C. Importantly, a climate agreement is more attractive for rich countries under the HDI than the GDP frame. This is good news, as these countries have to make the major contribution to emissions reductions.     

First Multi‐Isotopic (Pb‐Nd‐Sr‐Zn‐Cu‐Fe) Characterisation of Dust Reference Materials (ATD and BCR‐723): A Multi‐Column Chromatographic Method Optimised to Trace Mineral and Anthropogenic Dust Sources

Atmospheric dust is an integral component of the Earth system with major implications for the climate, biosphere and public health. In this context, identifying and quantifying the provenance and the processes generating the various types of dust found in the atmosphere is paramount. Isotopic signatures of Pb, Nd, Sr, Zn, Cu and Fe are commonly used as sensitive geochemical tracers. However, their combined use is limited by the lack of (a) a dedicated chromatographic protocol to separate the six elements of interest for low‐mass samples and (b) specific reference materials for dust. Indeed, our work shows that USGS rock reference materials BHVO‐2, AGV‐2 and G‐2 are not applicable as substitute reference materials for dust. We characterised the isotopic signatures of these six elements in dust reference materials ATD and BCR‐723, representatives of natural and urban environments, respectively. To achieve this, we developed a specific procedure for dust, applicable in the 4–25 mg mass range, to separate the six elements using a multi‐column ion‐exchange chromatographic method and MC‐ICP‐MS measurements.     

Rock crevices determine woody and herbaceous plant cover in the karst critical zone

The study of the critical zones(CZs) of the Earth link the composition and function of aboveground vegetation with the characteristics of the rock layers, providing a new way to study how the unique rock and soil conditions in karst regions affect the aboveground vegetation. Based on survey results of the rocks, soils and vegetation in the dolomite and limestone distribution areas in the karst area of central Guizhou, it was found that woody plant cover increases linearly with the number of cracks with a width of more than 1 mm, while the cover of herbaceous plants shows the opposite trend(p0.01). The dolomite distribution area is characterized by undeveloped crevices, and the thickness of the soil layer is generally less than 20 cm, which is suitable for the distribution of herbaceous plants with shallow roots. Due to the development of crevices in the limestone distribution area, the soil is deeply distributed through the crevices for the deep roots of trees, which leads to a diversified species composition and a complicated structure in the aboveground vegetation. Based on moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS) remote sensing data from 2001 to 2010, the normalized differentiated vegetation index(NDVI) and annual net primary productivity(NPP) results for each phase of a 16-day interval further indicate that the NDVI of the limestone distribution area is significantly higher than that in the dolomite distribution area, but the average annual NPP is the opposite. The results of this paper indicate that in karst CZs, the lithology determines the structure and distribution of the soil, which further determines the cover of woody and herbaceous plants in the aboveground vegetation. Although the amount of soil in the limestone area may be less than that in the dolomite area, the developed crevice structure is more suitable for the growth of trees with deep roots, and the vegetation activity is strong. At present, the treatment of rocky desertification in karst regions needs to fully consider the rock-soilvegetation-air interactions in karst CZs and propose vegetation restoration measures suitable for different lithologies.     

Instrumentation Development for In Situ 40Ar/39Ar Planetary Geochronology

The chronology of the Solar System, particularly the timing of formation of extra‐terrestrial bodies and their features, is an outstanding problem in planetary science. Although various chronological methods for in situ geochronology have been proposed (e.g., Rb‐Sr, K‐Ar), and even applied (K‐Ar), the reliability, accuracy, and applicability of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method makes it by far the most desirable chronometer for dating extra‐terrestrial bodies. The method however relies on the neutron irradiation of samples, and thus a neutron source. Herein, we discuss the challenges and feasibility of deploying a passive neutron source to planetary surfaces for the in situ application of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar chronometer. Requirements in generating and shielding neutrons, as well as analysing samples are described, along with an exploration of limitations such as mass, power and cost. Two potential solutions for the in situ extra‐terrestrial deployment of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method are presented. Although this represents a challenging task, developing the technology to apply the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method on planetary surfaces would represent a major advance towards constraining the timescale of solar system formation and evolution.     

Combining long- and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field,New Zealand

By using BET_VH, we propose a quantitative probabilistic hazard assessment for base surge impact in Auckland, New Zealand. Base surges resulting from phreatomagmatic eruptions are among the most dangerous phenomena likely to be associated with the initial phase of a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. The assessment is done both in the long-term and in a specific short-term case study, i.e. the simulated pre-eruptive unrest episode during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national civil defence exercise. The most important factors to account for are the uncertainties in the vent location (expected for a volcanic field) and in the run-out distance of base surges. Here, we propose a statistical model of base surge run-out distance based on deposits from past eruptions in Auckland and in analogous volcanoes. We then combine our hazard assessment with an analysis of the costs and benefits of evacuating people (on a 1 × 1-km cell grid). In addition to stressing the practical importance of a cost-benefit analysis in creating a bridge between volcanologists and decision makers, our study highlights some important points. First, in the Exercise Ruaumoko application, the evacuation call seems to be required as soon as the unrest phase is clear; additionally, the evacuation area is much larger than what is recommended in the current contingency plan. Secondly, the evacuation area changes in size with time, due to a reduction in the uncertainty in the vent location and increase in the probability of eruption. It is the tradeoff between these two factors that dictates which cells must be evacuated, and when, thus determining the ultimate size and shape of the area to be evacuated.