Focal depths and mechanisms of Tohoku-Oki aftershocks from teleseismic P wave modeling

Aftershocks of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki great earthquake have a wide range of focal depths and fault plane mechanisms. We constrain the focal depths and focal mechanisms of 69 aftershocks with M _w > 5.4 by modeling the waveforms of teleseismic P and its trailing near-surface reflections pP and sP. We find that the “thrust events” are within 10 km from the plate interface. The dip angles of these thrust events increase with depth from ~5° to ~25°. The “non-thrust events” vary from 60 km above to 40 km below the plate interface. Normal and strike-slip events within the overriding plate point to redistribution of stress following the primary great earthquake; however, due to the spatially variable stress change in the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, an understanding of how the mainshock affected the stresses that led to the aftershocks requires accurate knowledge of the aftershock location.     

Structural and Hydrogeological Controls on Hydrocarbon and Brine Migration into Drinking Water Aquifers in Southern New York

Environmental concerns regarding the potential for drinking water contamination in shallow aquifers have accompanied unconventional energy development in the northern Appalachian Basin. These activities have also raised several critical questions about the hydrogeological parameters that control the naturally occurring presence and migration of hydrocarbon gases in shallow aquifers within petroliferous basins. To interrogate these factors, we analyzed the noble gas, dissolved ion, and hydrocarbon gas (molecular and isotopic composition) geochemistry of 98 groundwater samples from south‐central New York. All samples were collected ?1km from unconventional drilling activities and sample locations were intentionally targeted based on their proximity to various types of documented fault systems. In agreement with studies from other petroliferous basins, our results show significant correlations between elevated levels of radiogenic [⁴He], thermogenic [CH₄], and dissolved ions (e.g., Cl, Br, Sr, Ba). In combination, our data suggest that faults have facilitated the transport of exogenous hydrocarbon‐rich brines from Devonian source rocks into overlying Upper Devonian aquifer lithologies over geologic time. These data conflict with previous reports, which conclude that hydrodynamic focusing regulates the occurrence of methane and salt in shallow aquifers and leads to elevated levels of these species in restricted flow zones within valley bottoms. Instead, our data suggest that faults in Paleozoic rocks play a fundamental role in gas and brine transport from depth, regulate the distribution of their occurrence in shallow aquifers, and influence the geochemistry of shallow groundwater in this petroliferous basin.     

Drinking water quality in Nepal’s Kathmandu Valley: a survey and assessment of selected controlling site characteristics

Water was sampled from over 100 sources in Nepal’s Kathmandu Valley, including municipal taps, dug wells, shallow-aquifer tube wells, deep-aquifer tube wells, and dhunge dharas (or stone spouts, public water sources that capture groundwater or surface water). Information was gathered on user preference and site and well characteristics, and water was examined for indicators of contamination from sewage, agriculture, or industry. Most problematic were total coliform and Escherichia coli bacteria, which were present in 94 and 72% of all the water samples, respectively. Contamination by nitrate, ammonia and heavy metals was more limited; nitrate and ammonia exceeded Nepali guidelines in 11 and 45% of the samples, respectively. Arsenic and mercury exceeded WHO guidelines in 7 and 10% of the samples, respectively, but arsenic never exceeded the less strict Nepali guideline. Significant differences existed in contamination levels between types of sources; dug wells and dhunge dharas, being the shallowest, were the most contaminated by bacteria and nitrate; deep-aquifer tube wells were the most contaminated by arsenic. Whereas E. coli concentrations decreased with depth, iron and ammonia concentrations increased with depth. These relationships account for people choosing to drink water with higher levels of bacterial contamination based on its superior (non-metallic) taste and appearance.     

How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts

ABSTRACT

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.     

Nesting Turbulence in an Offshore Convective Boundary Layer Using Large-Eddy Simulations

The applicability of the one-way nesting technique for numerical simulations of the heterogeneous atmospheric boundary layer using the large-eddy simulation (LES) framework of the Weather Research and Forecasting model is investigated. The focus of this study is on LES of offshore convective boundary layers. Simulations were carried out using two subgrid-scale models (linear and non-linear) with two different closures [diagnostic and prognostic subgrid-scale turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) equations]. We found that the non-linear backscatter and anisotropy model with a prognostic subgrid-scale TKE equation is capable of providing similar results when performing one-way nested LES to a stand-alone domain having the same grid resolution but using periodic lateral boundary conditions. A good agreement is obtained in terms of velocity shear and turbulent fluxes, while velocity variances are overestimated. A streamwise fetch of 14 km is needed following each domain transition in order for the solution to reach quasi-stationary results and for the velocity spectra to generate proper energy content at high wavelengths, however, a pile-up of energy is observed at the low-wavelength portion of the spectrum on the first nested domain. The inclusion of a second nest with higher resolution allows the solution to reach effective grid spacing well within the Kolmogorov inertial subrange of turbulence and develop an appropriate energy cascade that eliminates most of the pile-up of energy at low wavelengths. Consequently, the overestimation of velocity variances is substantially reduced and a considerably better agreement with respect to the stand-alone domain results is achieved.     

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Messina Strait Area (Sicily, Italy)

The general modular Bayesian procedure is applied to provide a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Messina Strait Area (MSA), Italy. This is the first study in an Italian area where the potential tsunamigenic events caused by both submarine seismic sources (SSSs) and submarine mass failures (SMFs) are examined in a probabilistic assessment. The SSSs are localized on active faults in MSA as indicated by the instrumental data of the catalogue of the Italian seismicity; the SMFs are spatially identified using their propensity to failure in the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Seas on the basis of mean slope and mean depth, and using marine geology background knowledge. In both cases the associated probability of occurrence is provided. The run-ups were calculated at key sites that are main cities and/or important sites along the Eastern Sicily and the Southern Calabria coasts where tsunami events were recorded in the past. The posterior probability distribution combines the prior probability and the likelihood calculated in the MSA. The prior probability is based on the physical model of the tsunami process, and the likelihood is based on the historical data collected by the historical catalogues, background knowledge, and marine geological information. The posterior SSSs and SMFs tsunami probabilities are comparable and are combined to produce a final probability for a full PTHA in MSA.     

Development of flood exposure in the Netherlands during the 20th and 21st century

Flood risks of deltaic areas increase because of population growth, economic development, land subsidence and climatic changes such as sea-level rise. In this study, we analyze trends in flood exposure by combining spatially explicit historical, present, and future land-use data with detailed information on the maximum flood inundation in the Netherlands. We show that the total amount of urban area that can potentially become inundated due to floods from the sea or main rivers has increased six-fold during the 20th century, and may double again during the 21st century. Moreover, these developments took, and probably will take, place in areas with progressively higher potential inundation depths. Potential flood damage has increased exponentially over the 20th century (16 times) and is expected to continue to increase exponentially (∼ten-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a high economic growth scenario. Flood damages increase more moderately (two- to three-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a low growth scenario. The capacity to deal with catastrophic flood losses - expressed as the ratio damage/GDP - will, however, decrease slightly in the low growth scenario (by about 20%). This trend deviates from the historical trend of the 20th century, which shows an increasing capacity to cope with flood damage (almost doubling). Under the high growth scenario the capacity to deal with such losses eventually increases slightly (by about 25%). These findings illustrate that, despite higher projections of potential flood damage, high economic growth scenarios may not necessarily be worse than low growth scenarios in terms of the impact of floods.     

Modelling sediment dynamics due to hillslope–river interactions: incorporating fluvial behaviour in landscape evolution model LAPSUS

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the three‐dimensional development of landscapes over time. Different LEMs have different foci, e.g. erosional behaviour, river dynamics, the fluvial domain, hillslopes or a combination. LEM LAPSUS is a relatively simple cellular model operating on timescales of centuries to millennia and using annual timesteps that has had a hillslope focus. Our objective was to incorporate fluvial behaviour in LAPSUS without changing the existing model equations. The model should be able to reproduce alternating aggradation and incision in the floodplains of catchments, depending on simulated conditions. Testing was done using an artificial digital elevation model (DEM) and a demonstration of the ability for fluvial simulation was performed for a real landscape (Torrealvilla catchment, southeast Spain). Model equations to calculate sediment dynamics and water routing were similar for both hillslope and fluvial conditions, but different parameter values were used for these domains, defined based on annual discharge. Parameters changing between the domains are convergence factor p, which is used in the multiple flow algorithm to route water, and discharge and gradient exponents m and n, used in transport capacity calculations. Erodibility and ‘sedimentability’ factors K and P were changed between cold (little vegetation, high erodibility) and warm conditions (more vegetation, lower erodibility). Results show that the adapted parameters reproduced alternating aggradation – due to divergent flow in the floodplain and sediment supply under cold conditions – and incision due to reduced sediment supply and resulting clean water erosion during simulated warm conditions. The simulated results are due to interactions between hillslopes and floodplains, as the former provide the sediments that are deposited in the latter. Similar behaviour was demonstrated when using the real DEM. Sensitivity and resolution analysis showed that the model is sensitive to changes in m, n and p and that model behaviour is influenced by DEM resolution. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.