Using simulated annealing for resource allocation

Many resource allocation issues, such as land use- or irrigation planning, require input from extensive spatial databases and involve complex decisionmaking problems. Spatial decision support systems (SDSS) are designed to make these issues more transparent and to support the design and evaluation of resource allocation alternatives. Recent developments in this field focus on the design of allocation plans that utilise mathematical optimisation techniques. These techniques, often referred to as multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, run into numerical problems when faced with the high dimensionality encountered in spatial applications. In this paper we demonstrate how simulated annealing, a heuristic algorithm, can be used to solve high-dimensional non-linear optimisation problems for multi-site land use allocation (MLUA) problems. The optimisation model both minimises development costs and maximises spatial compactness of the land use. Compactness is achieved by adding a non-linear neighbourhood objective to the objective function. The method is successfully applied to a case study in Galicia, Spain, using an SDSS for supporting the restoration of a former mining area with new land use.     

Did tillage erosion play a role in millennial scale landscape development?

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) quantitatively simulate processes of sedimentation and erosion on millennial timescales. An important aspect of human impact on erosion is sediment redistribution due to agriculture, referred to herein as tillage erosion. In this study we aim to analyse the potential contribution of tillage erosion to landscape development using LEM LAPSUS. The model is calibrated separately for a water erosion process (i) without tillage and (ii) with tillage. The model is applied to the ~250 km² Torrealvilla case study catchment, SE Spain. We were able to simulate alternating sequences of incision and aggradation, that are important on longer (millennial) timescales. Generally, model results show that tillage erosion adds to deposition in the lower floodplain area, but neither water erosion alone nor water with tillage erosion together could exactly reproduce the observed amounts of erosion and sedimentation for the case study area. In addition, scale effects are apparent. On hillslopes, tillage may contribute importantly to erosion and may fill local depressions. If assessed on the catchment scale, sediments from tillage erosion eventually reach the lower floodplain area where they contribute to deposition. However, water erosion was observed in the model simulations to be the most important process on the catchment scale. This is the first time that tillage erosion has been explicitly included in a landscape evolution model at a millennial timescale and large catchment scale. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a sustainable livelihood security model for storm-surge hazard in the coastal areas of Bangladesh

Coastal communities in Bangladesh are at great risk due to frequent cyclones and cyclone induced storm-surges, which damages inland and marine resource systems. In the present research, seven marginal livelihood groups including Farmers, Fisherman, Fry (shrimp) collectors, Salt farmers, Dry fishers, Forest resource extractors, and Daily wage labourers are identified to be extremely affected by storm- surges in the coastal area of Bangladesh. A livelihood security model was developed to investigate the security status of the coastal livelihood system in a participatory approach. In the model, livelihood security consists of five components: (1) Food, (2) Income, (3) Life & health, (4) House & properties, and (5) Water security. Analytical hierarchy process was followed to assess the livelihood security indicators based on respondents’ security options. The model was verified through direct field observation and expert judgment. The Livelihood Security Model yields a Livelihood Security Index which can be used for assessing and comparing the household security level (in %) of different livelihood groups in the storm-surge prone coastal areas. The model was applied with data from two major coastal areas (Cox’s Bazar and Satkhira) of Bangladesh and is applicable to other coastal areas having similar settings.     

Local empowerment through economic restructuring in Brazil: the case of the greater ABC region

Regional and local capacity building in Brazil, as in other Latin American countries, has traditionally been linked with democracy. Whereas periods of dictatorship usually saw the establishment of a tight grip by the centre over state and local governments, democracy has been linked to greater autonomy at the regional and local levels. The revival of regional and local governments in Brazil over the last decade and a half seems to fall into this latter category. In this paper we will argue that the advent of democracy is however not the only factor behind the recent dynamism at the sub-national level, but that economic restructuring is becoming a major force behind the adoption of more pro-active attitudes and policies by local and regional governments. We will illustrate this theory with the example of the greater ABC region, in the São Paulo metropolitan area, where economic crisis and restructuring has led to inter-municipal co-operation and the creation of a local economic development council.     

Reconstructing 20thcentury lead pollution andsediment focusing in a peat land pool (Kempen, Belgium), via 210Pbdating

Pb-210 dating of two metal-polluted organic sedimentcores obtained near a former pyrometallurgical zinc smelter in Lommel, Belgiumhave been used to reconstruct atmospheric lead deposition rates during the20^th century. Independent knowledge concerning historical pollutionevents and ¹³⁷Cs fall-out profiles has allowed a criticalevaluation of the CRS, CIC and CF-CS models for the ²¹⁰Pb ageinterpretation. Resulting ages for the three models suggest that, in this case,the CIC model gives the most accurate interpretation of historical pollutionevents and atmospheric lead fall-out. The ²¹⁰Pbwater-sediment flux was estimated at 141–1158Bq·m^–2·yr^–1 for one site and62–106 Bq·m^–2·yr^–1 at theother site, during the last century. The large difference illustrates thatsediment focusing was important on a small spatial scale (10 m).The direction of focusing correlates with the predominant wind direction.Maximum atmospheric lead deposition rates were found to be 1.63 ± 0.59g·m^–2·yr^–1 around 1968 AD,which is 2 orders of magnitude larger than the Belgian average in 1980 AD, and5 orders larger than Holocene atmospheric lead deposition.     

Valueloading And Uncertainty In A Sector-based Differentiation Scheme For Emission Allowances

The Triptych approach is a sectoral approach for differentiation of quantitative greenhouse gas emission reduction objectives. In this study we investigate the ranges in emission reduction targets that result from differences in valueladen assumptions and uncertainties in input data and parameters. In order to assess the effect of highly valueladen assumptions on resulting objectives we used two approaches. First we performed a sensitivity analysis. Then we elaborated the approach from four ideal-typical value-orientations: the administrator, the businessman, the campaigner and the survivor. For each of these value-orientations we specified corresponding sets of assumptions of highly valueladen parameters. Within each set, we also assessed uncertainties for the remaining parameters and input data. We assessed the strength and we quantified their inexactnesses with probability distribution functions. Next, we carried out Monte Carlo simulations in each of the four value-orientations to quantify error propagation from the inexactnesses in input data and parameters. We found targets for the year 2015 for Annex I countries differed up to around 20%-points over the four value-orientations. For developing countries differences in allowances were found up to the order of four. In addition, results are affected to a large extent by uncertainties in the other input data and parameters. Ranges in the outcome resulting from uncertainties are between 10 and 35%-points for Annex I countries, depending on the value-orientation chosen and between 20 and 120%-points for non-Annex I countries. However, the ranking of countries within the calculated differentiation remains roughly the same, an exception being the ranking that resulted from the businessman’s perspective. Other consistent combinations of valueladen assumptions may result in objectives that are outside the range that we based on the four value-orientations. We concluded that care should be taken when assessing valueloading in calculations schemes for emissions objectives based on a limited number of value-orientations only. Our analysis clearly underlines the relevance of making explicit policy variables in schemes for the differentiation of commitments. It is necessary to reach consensus on these variables if such schemes are to support negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions allowances.     

Depositional facies and stratal geometry of an Upper Carboniferous prograding and aggrading high-relief carbonate platform (Cantabrian Mountains, N Spain)

Seismic‐scale continuous exposures of an Upper Carboniferous (Bashkirian–Moscovian) carbonate platform (N Spain) provide detailed information about the lithofacies and stratal geometries (quantified with differential global positioning system measurements) of microbial boundstone‐dominated, steep prograding and aggrading platform margins. Progradational and aggradational platform‐to‐slope transects are characterized by distinct lithological features and stratal patterns that can be applied to the understanding of geometrically comparable, high‐relief depositional systems. The Bashkirian is characterized by rapid progradation at rates of 415–970 m My^?1. Characteristic outer‐platform facies are high‐energy grainstones with coated intraclasts, ooids and pisoids, moderate‐energy algal‐skeletal grainstones to packstones and lower energy algal packstone and boundstone units. The Moscovian aggradational phase is characterized by aggradation rates of 108 m My^?1. Coated‐grain shoals are less common, whereas crinoidal bars nucleated in well‐circulated settings below wave‐base. Boundstones form a belt (30–300 m wide) at the platform break and interfinger inwards with massive algal‐skeletal wackestones (mud‐rich banks). The progradational phase has divergent outer‐platform strata with basinward dips of 12° to 2°. Steep clinoforms with dips of 20–28° are 650–750 m in relief and possibly sigmoidal to concave in the lower part. The basinward‐dipping outer‐platform strata might be depositional for less than 6°, consistent with lithofacies deepening seaward. The basinward dip is attributed to the downward shift of upper‐slope boundstone, forced by late highstand and relative sea‐level fall, and to compaction‐induced differential subsidence during progradation. The aggradational phase is characterized by horizontally layered platform strata. Clinoforms steepen to 30–45° reaching heights of 850 m and are planar to concave. The evolution from progradation to aggradation, at the Bashkirian–Moscovian boundary, is attributed to increased foreland‐basin subsidence and decreased boundstone accumulation rates. Progradation was primarily controlled by boundstone growth rather than by highstand shedding from the platform top. Within the major phases, aggradational–progradational increments are produced by third‐ to fourth‐order relative sea‐level fluctuations.