δ30Si and δ29Si Determinations on USGS BHVO-1 and BHVO-2 Reference Materials with a New Configuration on a Nu Plasma Multi-Collector ICP-MS

We report silicon isotopic determinations for USGS rock reference materials BHVO-1 and BHVO-2 using a Nu Plasma multi-collector (MC)-ICP-MS, upgraded with a new adjustable entrance slit, to obtain medium resolution, as well as a stronger primary pump and newly designed sampler and skimmer cones ("B" cones). These settings, combined with the use of collector slits, allowed a resolution to be reached that was sufficient to overcome the ¹⁴N¹⁶O and ¹⁴N₂ interferences overlying the ³⁰Si and the ²⁸Si peaks, respectively, in an earlier set-up. This enabled accurate measurement of both δ³⁰Si and δ²⁹Si. The δ value is expressed in per mil variation relative to the NBS 28 quartz reference material. Based on data acquired from numerous sessions spread over a period of six months, we propose a recommended average δ³⁰Si of −0.33 ± 0.05‰ and −0.29 ± 0.11‰ (2se) for BHVO-1 and BHVO-2, respectively. Our BHVO grand mean silicon isotope composition (δ³⁰Si =−0.31 ± 0.06‰) is significantly more negative than the only published value for BHVO-2, but is in very good agreement with the recently established average value of ocean island basalts (OIB), confirming the conclusion that the OIB reservoir has a distinct isotopic composition from the solar reservoir as sampled by chondrites.     

What explains public support for climate policies? A review of empirical and experimental studies

The lack of broad public support prevents the implementation of effective climate policies. This article aims to examine why citizens support or reject climate policies. For this purpose, we provide a cross-disciplinary overview of empirical and experimental research on public attitudes and preferences that has emerged in the last few years. The various factors influencing policy support are divided into three general categories: (1) social-psychological factors and climate change perception, such as the positive influences of left-wing political orientation, egalitarian worldviews, environmental and self-transcendent values, climate change knowledge, risk perception, or emotions like interest and hope; (2) the perception of climate policy and its design, which includes, among others, the preference of pull over push measures, the positive role of perceived policy effectiveness, the level of policy costs, as well as the positive effect of perceived policy fairness and the recycling of potential policy revenues; (3) contextual factors, such as the positive influence of social trust, norms and participation, wider economic, political and geographical aspects, or the different effects of specific media events and communications. Finally, we discuss the findings and provide suggestions for future research.

Policy relevance

Public opinion is a significant determinant of policy change in democratic countries. Policy makers may be reluctant to implement climate policies if they expect public opposition. This article seeks to provide a better understanding of the various factors influencing public responses to climate policy proposals. Most of the studied factors include perceptions about climate change, policy and its attributes, all of which are amenable to intervention. The acquired insights can thus assist in improving policy design and communication with the overarching objective to garner more public support for effective climate policy.     

Green growth and climate change: conceptual and empirical considerations

The feasibility of green growth is studied in the context of climate change. As carbon emissions are easier to quantify than many other types of environmental pressure, it will be possible to reach a more definite conclusion about the likelihood of green growth than has been possible in the long-standing historical debate on growth versus the environment. We calculate the rate of decoupling between gross domestic product (GDP) and GHG emissions needed to achieve internationally agreed climate targets. Next, eight arguments are considered that together suggest that fast decoupling will be very difficult. Subsequently, we examine the main lines of research used by proponents of green growth to support their viewpoint, including theoretical arguments, exercises with integrated assessment models, and studies of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. It will be concluded that decoupling as a main or single strategy to combine economic and environmental aims should be judged as taking a very large risk with our common future. To minimize this risk we need to seriously consider reducing our dependence on growth. This requires a fundamental change of focus in both economic research and policy.

Policy relevance

Currently, green growth is the only strategy of mainstream economists and policy makers to address climate change. This article demonstrates that such an exclusive focus is very risky due to the scale of the challenge and the existence of various barriers to the fast decoupling of GHG emissions from economic output. It seems that the only option to combine environmental and economic objectives is reducing the dependence of our economies on growth. Finding strategies in line with this requires a fundamental change of focus in both economic research and policy.     

Changes in future flood risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area

Damages from weather related disasters are projected to increase, due to a combination of increasing exposure of people and assets, and expected changes in the global climate. Only few studies have assessed in detail the potential range of losses in the future and the factors contributing to the projected increase. Here we estimate future potential damage from river flooding, and analyse the relative role of land-use, asset value increase and climate change on these losses, for a case study area in The Netherlands. Projections of future socioeconomic change (land-use change and increase in the value of assets) are used in combination with flood scenarios, projections of flooding probabilities, and a simple damage model. It is found that due to socioeconomic change, annual expected losses may increase by between 35 and 172% by the year 2040, compared to the baseline situation in the year 2000. If no additional measures are taken to reduce flood probabilities or consequences, climate change may lead to an increase in expected losses of between 46 and 201%. A combination of climate and socioeconomic change may increase expected losses by between 96 and 719%. Asset value increase has a large role, as it may lead to a doubling of losses. The use of single loss estimates may lead to underestimation of the impact of extremely high losses. We therefore also present loss–probability curves for future risks, in order to assess the increase of the most extreme potential loss events. Our approach thus allows a more detailed and comprehensive assessment than previous studies that could also be applied in other study areas to generate flood risk projections. Adaptation through flood prevention measures according to currently planned strategies would counterbalance the increase in expected annual losses due to climate change under all scenarios.     

Seasonal and annual throughfall and stemflow in Andean temperate rainforests

The partitioning of gross rainfall into throughfall, stemflow, and interception loss and their relationships with forest structure was studied for a period of four years (October 2002–September 2006) and two years (October 2005–September 2007) in seven experimental catchments of temperate rainforest ecosystems located in the Andes of south‐central Chile (39°37′S, 600–925 m a.s.l.). The amount of throughfall, stemflow, and interception loss was correlated with forest structure characteristics such as basal area, canopy cover, mean quadratic diameter (MQD), and tree species characteristics in evergreen and deciduous forests. Annual rainfall ranged from 4061 to 5308 mm at 815 m a.s.l. and from 3453 to 4660 mm at 714 m a.s.l. Throughfall ranged from 64 to 89% of gross rainfall. Stemflow contributed 0·3–3·4% of net precipitation. Interception losses ranged from 11 to 36% of gross rainfall and depended on the amount of rainfall and characteristics as well as on forest structure, particularly the MQD. For evergreen forests, strong correlations were found between stemflow per tree and tree characteristics such as diameter at breast height (R² = 0·92, P < 0·01) and crown projection area (R² = 0·65, P < 0·01). Stemflow per tree was also significantly correlated with epiphyte cover of trunks in the old‐growth evergreen forests (R² = 0·29, P < 0·05). The difference in the proportion of throughfall and interception loss among stands was significant only during winter. The reported relationships between rainfall partitioning and forest structure and composition provide valuable information for management practices, which aimed at producing other ecosystem services in addition to timber in native rainforests of southern Chile. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Limitations in the use of compound-specific stable isotope analysis to understand the behaviour of a complex BTEX groundwater contamination near Brussels (Belgium)

The application of compound-specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) was evaluated to characterise a complex groundwater contamination. For this purpose, δ¹³C and δ²H analysis of benzenes and alkylated derivatives were used to interpret both the impact of different sources on a contaminant plume and the presence of degradation processes. The different contaminant sources could be distinguished based on their combined δ¹³C–δ²H signature of the benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) dissolved in the groundwater. Despite this source differentiation, plume characterisation was not possible due to the complex mixing of the respective contaminant plumes. Furthermore, the original isotope signatures of the sources were not preserved across these plumes. To estimate the level of in situ biodegradation independently from concentration data, the Rayleigh equation was used. Although current literature identifies the application of CSIA as very promising in the frame of characterising organic groundwater pollution, this study has indicated that this approach can be limited with respect to successfully distinguish the different plumes and their relation to the known source zones.     

Estimates of spatial variation in evaporation using satellite‐derived surface temperature and a water balance model

Evaporation dominates the water balance in arid and semi‐arid areas. The estimation of evaporation by land‐cover type is important for proper management of scarce water resources. Here, we present a method to assess spatial and temporal patterns of actual evaporation by relating water balance evaporation estimates to satellite‐derived radiometric surface temperature. The method is applied to a heterogeneous landscape in the Krishna River basin in south India using 10‐day composites of NOAA advanced very high‐resolution radiometer satellite imagery. The surface temperature predicts the difference between reference evaporation and modelled actual evaporation well in the four catchments (r² = 0·85 to r² = 0·88). Spatial and temporal variations in evaporation are linked to vegetation type and irrigation. During the monsoon season (June–September), evaporation occurs quite uniformly over the case‐study area (1·7–2·1 mm day^?1), since precipitation is in excess of soil moisture holding capacity, but it is higher in irrigated areas (2·2–2·7 mm day^?1). In the post‐monsoon season (December–March) evaporation is highest in irrigated areas (2·4 mm day^?1). A seemingly reasonable estimate of temporal and spatial patterns of evaporation can be made without the use of more complex and data‐intensive methods; the method also constrains satellite estimates of evaporation by the annual water balance, thereby assuring accuracy at the seasonal and annual time‐scales. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance: A comprehensive study for the Netherlands

Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk through undertaking damage mitigation measures. However, the uncertainty about the development of future flood risk in the face of climate and socio-economic change may complicate insurers’ rate-setting of long-term contracts. This issue has been examined in this study by estimating the effects of these changes on flood risk and pricing flood insurance premiums of short- and long-term flood insurance contracts in all (53) dike-ring areas in the Netherlands. A broad range of simulations with hydrological and flood damage models are used to estimate the future development of flood risk and premiums. In addition, the long-term development of insurance funds is estimated with a spatial “Climate Risk Insurance Model (CRIM)” for a private insurance arrangement and for a ‘three-layered’ public-private insurance program. The estimation of flood insurance premiums of long-term insurance contracts reveals fundamental problems. One is that there is an incentive for either the consumer or the insurer to prefer short-term rather than long-term contracts in the face of climate-related uncertainty. Therefore, it seems advisable to examine the introduction of one-year flood insurance contracts in the Netherlands, at least until the large uncertainties with climate and socio-economic change on flood risk have been resolved. The estimations performed with the Climate Risk Insurance Model indicate that a private insurance fund could have difficulties with building up enough financial reserves to pay for flood damage, while the layered public-private insurance scheme is more robust.