Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts: reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts”*

ABSTRACT

We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they challenge us to think a step further on how to foster the collection of long time series of data and how to use these to model and project changes. Here, we elaborate on the possibility to collect time series of data on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts and how these could be used to improve e.g. socio-hydrological models for the development of future risk scenarios.     

Estimates of the transition zone temperature in a mechanically mixed upper mantle

Partial melting of mantle peridotite generates a physically and chemically layered oceanic lithosphere that is cycled back into the mantle in subduction zones. Stirring times of the mantle are too long to allow for complete re-homogenization of subducted basalt and harzburgite, given the low chemical diffusivity of the solid mantle. This suggests that the Earth's mantle is a mechanical mixture of basaltic and harzburgitic components. Using a recently developed thermodynamic formulism we determine the phase equilibria and the seismic properties of a mantle comprised of a mechanical mixture of basalt and harzburgite (MM) and a homogeneous mantle (EA) with identical pyrolitic bulk chemistry. We use the theoretical shear velocity profiles as a new thermometer of the mantle below the magma-genetic zone by modeling the difference ΔT_410-660 between traveltimes of shear wave reflections off the 410-km and 660-km with the potential temperature T_P. ΔT_410-660 are measured from waveform stacks. They indicate that, over 1000+ km wave lengths, the temperature varies by about 200 K. Lowest and highest temperatures are resolved for the western Pacific subduction zones and the central Pacific, respectively. This variation is similar for the EA and MM and is in excellent agreement with estimates of transition zone thickness and shear velocity variations. The median value of T_P for the EA is 1720 K. It is about 1625 K for the MM, a value that is in better agreement with the Normal-MORB values of 1610 ± 40 K inferred from olivine-liquid equilibria given that our sampling region encompasses the Western Pacific subduction zones and the oldest parts of the Pacific Plate. We argue therefore that a mechanical mixed mantle, with generally higher velocities and steeper velocities gradients, represents a better physical reference model than a model based on a fully equilibrated assemblage.     

Verification of a coupled climate-hydrological model against Holocene palaeohydrological records

We have coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) offline to simulate palaeodischarge of nineteen rivers (Amazon, Congo, Danube, Ganges, Krishna, Lena, Mackenzie, Mekong, Meuse, Mississippi, Murray–Darling, Nile, Oder, Rhine, Sacramento–San Joaquin, Syr Darya, Volga, Volta, Zambezi) for three time-slices: Early Holocene (9000–8650 BP), Mid-Holocene (6200–5850 BP) and Recent (1750–2000 AD). To evaluate the model's skill in retrodicting broad changes in mean palaeodischarge we have compared the model results with palaeodischarge estimates from multi-proxy records. We have compared the general trends inferred from the proxy data with statistical differences in modelled discharge between the three periods, thereby developing a technique to assess the level of agreement between the model and proxy data. The quality of the proxy data for each basin has been classed as good, reasonable or low. Of the model runs for which the proxy data were good or reasonable, 72% were in good agreement with the proxy data, and 92% were in at least reasonable agreement. We conclude that the coupled climate-hydrological model performs well in simulating mean discharge in the time-slices studied. The discharge trends inferred from the proxy and model data closely follow latitudinal and seasonal variations in insolation over the Holocene. For a number of basins for which agreement was not good we have identified specific mechanisms which could be responsible for the discrepancy, primarily the absence of the Laurentide ice sheet in our model. In order to use the model in an operational sense within water management studies it would be useful to use a higher spatial resolution and a daily time-step.     

Is there a first-order discontinuity in the lowermost mantle?

In 1983, Lay and Helmberger [Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 75 (1983) 799–837] reported the detection of a precursor to the seismic phase ScS. They attributed this precursor to a sharp seismic discontinuity located several hundred kilometers above the core–mantle boundary. Such a lowermost mantle discontinuity implies the existence of a sharp phase change or a chemical boundary. Precursors to ScS and, less frequently, PcP have since been observed in numerous locations, but are not a global phenomenon. Frequently, PcP precursors are weak or absent when ScS precursors are observed in the same location, and vice versa. There can be significant variations in the amplitude and arrival time of the precursor relative to the main phase. The presence or absence of these precursors has led to speculations about the nature of the lowermost mantle. Here we demonstrate that ScS or PcP precursors may be produced by gradients in seismic wave speed associated with large-scale lowermost mantle heterogeneity. Rather than a phase or chemical boundary with substantial topography, such gradients require lateral variations in temperature and, close to the core–mantle boundary, composition.     

A weight-of-evidence approach to assessing the ecological impact of organotin pollution in Dutch marine and brackish waters; combining risk prognosis and field monitoring using common periwinkles (Littorina littorea)

In the present study an integrated ecological risk assessment based on multiple lines of evidence (LOEs) was evaluated in order to better assess the risk from TBT in Dutch harbours and open coastal waters. On the basis of spatial distributions of measured tributyltin (TBT) concentrations in sediments and suspended matter, predictions of the intersex index (ISI) in Littorina littorea and the ecological risk expressed as the Potentially Affected Fraction (PAF) of species were made. The results were compared to actual ISI measurements and presence of L. littorea in the field. The PAF calculated on the basis of TBT levels for open coastal waters ranged from 4.2% to 15.3%; for harbours it ranged from 3.5% to 26.9%. Significant intersex levels were observed only in waters where the risk was calculated above 10% PAF. This study suggests that the absence of L. littorea from some harbours with high ecological risk values can be explained by high TBT concentrations. A call is made for the use of integrated approaches like weight-of-evidence (WOE) to help practitioners improve ecological risk assessment.     

Intercomparison campaign of vertical ozone profiles including electrochemical sondes of ECC and Brewer-Mast type and a ground based UV-differential absorption lidar

An intercomparison campaign was conducted at the Observatoire de Haute Provence (OHP) in Southern France in September 1989 in order to compare the three instruments used for vertical tropospheric ozone profiling in the European TOR (Tropospheric Ozone Research Project) network: balloon borne ECC and Brewer-Mast sondes and a ground based UV-DIAL (DifferentialAbsorptionLidar). Additionally, a stratospheric lidar system and the Dobson spectrophotometer of the OHP were operated. Seven simultaneously measured vertical ozone profiles gave evidence for systematic differences of 15% between both types of electrochemical sondes in the troposphere, the Brewer-Mast sondes reading the smaller ozone values. These differences might be explained on the one hand by a possible contamination of the ozone sensor with reducing substances, causing a negative bias mainly for Brewer-Mast sondes and, on the other hand, by the evolution of the sonde background current during the flight, causing a positive bias for ECC sondes and a negative bias for Brewer-Mast sondes. The tropospheric lidar system, measuring the vertical ozone distribution between 6 and 12–15 km, showed ozone concentrations intermediate between the sonde results. This is in good agreement with its estimated systematic error of better than 7% in the upper troposphere. In the stratosphere, the differences between electrochemical sondes and the lidar are between 5 and 10% before the normalisation with the total ozone values measured by the Dobson spectrophotometer, and always below 5% after. While the Dobson normalisation thus corrects rather well the stratospheric part of the sonde profile, it only partially reduces errors occurring in the troposphere.     

Modelling sediment dynamics due to hillslope–river interactions: incorporating fluvial behaviour in landscape evolution model LAPSUS

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the three‐dimensional development of landscapes over time. Different LEMs have different foci, e.g. erosional behaviour, river dynamics, the fluvial domain, hillslopes or a combination. LEM LAPSUS is a relatively simple cellular model operating on timescales of centuries to millennia and using annual timesteps that has had a hillslope focus. Our objective was to incorporate fluvial behaviour in LAPSUS without changing the existing model equations. The model should be able to reproduce alternating aggradation and incision in the floodplains of catchments, depending on simulated conditions. Testing was done using an artificial digital elevation model (DEM) and a demonstration of the ability for fluvial simulation was performed for a real landscape (Torrealvilla catchment, southeast Spain). Model equations to calculate sediment dynamics and water routing were similar for both hillslope and fluvial conditions, but different parameter values were used for these domains, defined based on annual discharge. Parameters changing between the domains are convergence factor p, which is used in the multiple flow algorithm to route water, and discharge and gradient exponents m and n, used in transport capacity calculations. Erodibility and ‘sedimentability’ factors K and P were changed between cold (little vegetation, high erodibility) and warm conditions (more vegetation, lower erodibility). Results show that the adapted parameters reproduced alternating aggradation – due to divergent flow in the floodplain and sediment supply under cold conditions – and incision due to reduced sediment supply and resulting clean water erosion during simulated warm conditions. The simulated results are due to interactions between hillslopes and floodplains, as the former provide the sediments that are deposited in the latter. Similar behaviour was demonstrated when using the real DEM. Sensitivity and resolution analysis showed that the model is sensitive to changes in m, n and p and that model behaviour is influenced by DEM resolution. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Re-Os isotopic composition of peridotitic sulphide inclusions in diamonds from Ellendale, Australia: Age constraints on Kimberley cratonic lithosphere

Sulphide-bearing diamonds recovered from the ∼20 Ma Ellendale 4 and 9 lamproite pipes in north-western Australia were investigated to determine the nitrogen aggregation state of the diamonds and Re-Os isotope geochemistry of the sulphide inclusions. The majority of diamond studies have been based on diamonds formed in the sub-continental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) below stable cratons, whereas the Ellendale lamproites intrude the King Leopold Orogen, south of the Kimberley craton. The sulphide inclusions consist of pyrrhotite-pentlandite-chalcopyrite assemblages, and can be divided into peridotitic and eclogitic parageneses on the basis of their Ni and Os contents. A lherzolitic paragenesis for the high-Ni sulphide inclusions is suggested from their Re and Os concentrations. Regression analysis of the Re-Os isotope data for the lherzolitic sulphides yields an age of 1426 ± 130 Ma, with an initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratio of 0.1042 ± 0.0034. The upper limit of the uncertainty on the ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os initial ratio gives a Re depletion age of 2.96 Ga, indicating the presence of SCLM beneath Ellendale since at least the Mesoarchaean, with the lherzolitic diamond-forming event much younger and unrelated to the craton keel stabilisation. The nitrogen aggregation state of the diamonds and calculated mantle residence temperatures suggest an origin and storage of the Ellendale diamonds in a stable cratonic SCLM, consistent with the King Leopold Orogen being cratonised by about 1.8 Ga. The diamonds do not show evidence for pervasive deformation or platelet degradation, which suggests that the diamonds had a relatively undisturbed 1.4 billion year mantle storage history.