古气候模拟进展

古气候模拟对研究古气候变化,检验模式模拟与现代气候状况完全不同的古气候的能力,以及未来气候预测等都具有重要的科学和社会意义.国际古气候对比项目(PMIP,Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project)开展十多年来,取得了许多成果,我国科学家在古气候模拟方面也做了相当的研究.本文通过介绍古气候模拟的方法,评述PMIP试验和其研究成果以及中国科学家所做的研究工作,以使人们更多地了解古气候模拟研究工作的重要意义.     

Determination of the mechanism of cation ordering in magnesioferrite (MgFe2O4) from the time- and temperature-dependence of magnetic susceptibility

The kinetics of non-convergent cation ordering in MgFe₂O₄ have been studied by measuring the Curie temperature (T _c) of synthetic samples as a function of isothermal annealing time. The starting material was a synthetic sample of near-stoichiometric MgFe₂O₄, synthesised from the oxides in air and quenched from 900 °C in water. Ordering experiments were performed using small chips of this material and annealing them at temperatures between 450 °C and 600 °C. The chips were periodically removed from the furnace, and their Curie temperatures were determined from measurements of alternating-field magnetic susceptibility (χ) as a function of temperature (T) to 400 °C. The Curie temperature of MgFe₂O₄ is very sensitive to the intracrystalline distribution of Fe³⁺ and Mg cations between tetrahedral and octahedral sites of the spinel crystal structure, and hence provides a very sensitive probe of the cation ordering process. The χ-T curve for the starting material displays a single sharp magnetic transition at a temperature of 303 °C. During isothermal annealing, the χ-T curve develops two distinct magnetic transitions; the first at a temperature corresponding to T _c for the disordered starting material and the second at a higher temperature corresponding to T _c for the equilibrium ordered phase. The size of the magnetic signal from the ordered phase increases smoothly as a function of time, until equilibrium is approached and the shape of the χ-T curve corresponds to a single sharp magnetic transition for the homogeneous ordered phase. These observations demonstrate that cation ordering in MgFe₂O₄ proceeds via a heterogeneous mechanism, involving the nucleation and growth of fine-scale domains of the ordered phase within a matrix of disordered material. Disordering experiments were performed by taking material equilibrated at 558 °C and annealing it at 695 °C. The mechanism of isothermal disordering is shown to involve nucleation and growth of disordered domains within an ordered matrix, combined with continuous disordering of the ordered matrix. This mixed mechanism of disordering may provide an explanation for the difference between the rates of ordering and disordering observed in MgFe₂O₄ using X-ray diffraction. The origin of the heterogeneous ordering/disordering mechanism is discussed in terms of the Ginzburg-Landau rate law. It is argued that heterogeneous mechanisms are likely to occur in kinetic experiments performed far from equilibrium, whereas a homogeneous mechanism may operate under slow equilibrium cooling. The implications of these observations for geospeedometry are discussed. Received: 12 May 1998 / Accepted: 25 June 1998     

Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry

 Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ¹⁸O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (¹⁴C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft. Received: 7 September 1998 / Accepted: 18 March 1999     

Attenuation of P- and S-waves in limestones

Ultrasonic compressional- and shear-wave attenuation measurements have been made on 40, centimetre-sized samples of water- and oil-saturated oolitic limestones at 50 MPa effective hydrostatic pressure (confining pressure minus pore-fluid pressure) at frequencies of about 0.85 MHz and 0.7 MHz respectively, using the pulse-echo method. The mineralogy, porosity, permeability and the distribution of the pore types of each sample were determined using a combination of optical and scanning electron microscopy, a helium porosimeter and a nitrogen permeameter. The limestones contain a complex porosity system consisting of interparticle macropores (dimensions up to 300 microns) and micropores (dimensions 5–10 microns) within the ooids, the calcite cement and the mud matrix. Ultrasonic attenuation reaches a maximum value in those limestones in which the dual porosity system is most fully developed, indicating that the squirt-flow mechanism, which has previously been shown to occur in shaley sandstones, also operates in the limestones. It is argued that the larger-scale dual porosity systems present in limestones in situ could similarly cause seismic attenuation at the frequencies of field seismic surveys through the operation of the squirt-flow mechanism.     

The paradox of the scale-free discs

Scale-free discs have no preferred length or time-scale. The question has been raised whether such discs have a continuum of unstable linear modes or perhaps no unstable modes at all. We resolve this paradox by analysing the particular case of a gaseous, isentropic disc with a completely flat rotation curve (the Mestel disc) exactly . The heart of the matter is this: what are the correct boundary conditions to impose at the origin or central cusp? We argue that the linear stability problem is ill-posed and that similar ambiguities may afflict general disc models with power-law central cusps. From any finite radius, waves reach the origin after finite time but with logarithmically divergent phase. Instabilities exist, but their pattern speeds depend upon an undetermined phase with which waves are reflected from the origin. For any definite choice of this phase, there is an infinite but discrete set of growing modes. The ratio of growth rate to pattern speed is independent of the central phase. This ratio is derived in closed form for non-self-gravitating normal modes and is shown to agree with approximate results obtained from the shearing sheet in the short-wavelength limit. This provides the first exact, analytically solved stability analysis for a differentially rotating disc. For self-gravitating normal modes, the ratio of growth rate to pattern is found numerically by solving recurrence relations in Mellin-transform space.     

Estimates of live-tree carbon stores in the Pacific Northwest are sensitive to model selection

Background  

Estimates of live-tree carbon stores are influenced by numerous uncertainties. One of them is model-selection uncertainty: one has to choose among multiple empirical equations and conversion factors that can be plausibly justified as locally applicable to calculate the carbon store from inventory measurements such as tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH). Here we quantify the model-selection uncertainty for the five most numerous tree species in six counties of northwest Oregon, USA.     

Hydrocarbon-bearing nodules from Heysham,Lancashire

Nodules enriched in hydrocarbon occur sparingly in a subarkose bed of Namurian (?Kinders-coutian) age near Heysham, Lancashire. The nodules are commonly spheroidal to ellipsoidal (1-9 cm across) and are composed of alternating shells of hydrocarbon-rich and hydrocarbon-poor sandstone. Irregular impregnations and pellets are also formed from hydrocarbon. The hydrocarbon is infusible, insoluble in CCl₄, CS₂ and petroleum naphtha, and is classified as a pyrobitumen. Ash content averages 22.1% and the ash contains major V; subordinate Fe, U, Ca; minor Pb, Ti; traces of Ba, Mn, Zr, Ga, Y, Sr, Ni and Th. Sulphide inclusions in the hydrocarbon are comprised of chalcopyrite and pyrite. Hydrocarbon, commonly with illite, replaces primary sandstone matrix and clastic grains. The nodules may have formed as periodic structures (cf. Liesegang rings) with precipitation from thixotropic hydrocarbon compounds. The available evidence is insufficient, however, to postulate with any certainty the origin of the hydrocarbon. It may have formed syngenetic accretions with clastic detritus or alternatively it may have been introduced after deposition of the sandstone, although no feeders have been observed.     

Radiation Fog. Part I: Observations of Stability and Drop Size Distributions

Data from several cases of radiation fog occurring at the Met Office field site at Cardington, Bedfordshire, UK have been analyzed with a view to elucidating the typical evolution in its static stability from formation to dissipation. Typically the early stages of radiation fog are characterized by a stable thermal profile and a relatively shallow depth. However, when the fog reached approximately 100 m depth it was observed to become optically thick (to longwave radiation), with a subsequent change over several hours to a saturated adiabatic stability profile. At this time turbulence levels were seen to increase significantly. The mechanisms involved appear to be radiative cooling from fog top and a positive heat flux to the atmosphere from the soil. The importance of this change in stability for numerical modelling of fog episodes is discussed. Several case studies are made to gain some insight into how common this transition is. Droplet spectra were measured at 2-m height for many of the cases considered, and their evolution is discussed. It is found that distributions fall into an initial phase with small drop sizes (approximately ≤ 10 μm diameter) and concentration, and a mature phase with the appearance of much larger drop sizes with a mean diameter of approximately 15−20 μm. It is found that the appearance of the mature phase does not coincide with the change in stability from stable to saturated adiabatic, but there is some evidence that once a saturated adiabatic profile is established, the droplet spectra variations are significantly less than for the stable period. The observed evolution of these spectra brings into question the suitability of microphysical schemes that assume constant spectral shape, drop diameter, and number density.     

Climate model benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates

Past climates provide a test of models’ ability to predict climate change. We present a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models against Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene climates, using reconstructions of land and ocean climates and simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects. Newer models do not perform better than earlier versions despite higher resolution and complexity. Differences in climate sensitivity only weakly account for differences in model performance. In the glacial, models consistently underestimate land cooling (especially in winter) and overestimate ocean surface cooling (especially in the tropics). In the mid-Holocene, models generally underestimate the precipitation increase in the northern monsoon regions, and overestimate summer warming in central Eurasia. Models generally capture large-scale gradients of climate change but have more limited ability to reproduce spatial patterns. Despite these common biases, some models perform better than others.     

Seasonal and spatial dynamics of nutrients and phytoplankton biomass in Victoria Harbour and its vicinity before and after sewage abatement

This study investigated the seasonal and spatial dynamics of nutrients and phytoplankton biomass at 12 stations in Hong Kong (HK) waters during a three year period from 2004 to 2006 after upgraded sewage treatment and compared these results to observations before sewage treatment. Pearl River estuary (PRE) discharge significantly increased NO(3) and SiO(4) concentrations, particularly in western and southern waters when rainfall and river discharge was maximal in summer. Continuous year round discharge of sewage effluent resulted in high NH(4) and PO(4) in Victoria Harbour (VH) and its vicinity. In winter, spring and fall, the water column at all stations was moderately mixed by winds and tidal currents, and phytoplankton biomass was relatively low compared to summer. In summer, the mean surface phytoplankton chl biomass was generally > 9 microL(-1) in most areas as a result of thermohaline stratification, and high nutrients, light, and water temperature. In summer, the potential limiting nutrient is PO(4) in the most productive southern waters and it seldom decreased to limiting levels ( approximately 0.1 microM), suggesting that phytoplankton growth may be only episodically limiting. The mean bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) remained > 3.5 mg L(-1) at most stations, indicating that the eutrophication impact in HK waters was not as severe as expected for such a eutrophic area. After the implementation of chemically enhanced primary sewage treatment in 2001, water quality in VH improved as indicated by a significant decrease in NH(4) and PO(4) and an increase in bottom DO. In contrast, there were an increase in chl a and NO(3), and a significant decrease in bottom DO in southern waters in summer, suggesting that hypoxic events are most likely to occur in this region if phytoplankton biomass and oxygen consumption keep increasing and exceed the buffering capacity of HK waters maintained by monsoon winds, tidal mixing and zooplankton grazing. Therefore, future studies on the long-term changes in nutrient loading from PRE and HK sewage discharge will be crucial for developing future strategies of sewage management in HK waters.