An empirical model of subcritical bedform migration

The ability to predict bedform migration in rivers is critical for estimating bed material load, yet there is no relation for predicting bedform migration (downstream translation) that covers the full range of conditions under which subcritical bedforms develop. Here, the relation between bedform migration rates and transport stage is explored using a field and several flume data sets. Transport stage is defined as the non‐dimensional Shields stress divided by its value at the threshold for sediment entrainment. Statistically significant positive correlations between both ripple and dune migration rates and transport stage are found. Stratification of the data by the flow depth to grain‐size ratio improved the amount of variability in migration rates that was explained by transport stage to ca 70%. As transport stage increases for a given depth to grain‐size ratio, migration rates increase. For a given transport stage, the migration rate increases as the flow depth to grain‐size ratio gets smaller. In coarser sediment, bedforms move faster than in finer sediment at the same transport stage. Normalization of dune migration rates by the settling velocity of bed sediment partially collapses the data. Given the large amount of variability that arises from combining data sets from different sources, using different equipment, the partial collapse is remarkable and warrants further testing in the laboratory and field.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

Linear and non-linear theory of a parametric instability of hydrodynamic warps in Keplerian discs

We consider the stability of warping modes in Keplerian discs. We find them to be parametrically unstable using two lines of attack, one based on three-mode couplings and the other on Floquet theory. We confirm the existence of the instability and investigate its non-linear development in three dimensions, via numerical experiment. The most rapidly growing non-axisymmetric disturbances are the most nearly axisymmetric (low- m ) ones. Finally, we offer a simple, somewhat speculative model for the interaction of the parametric instability with the warp. We apply this model to the masing disc in NGC 4258 and show that, provided the warp is not forced too strongly, parametric instability can fix the amplitude of the warp.     

Gravitational radiation from strongly magnetized white dwarfs

The magnetic fields of white dwarfs distort their shape generating an anisotropic moment of inertia. A magnetized white dwarf that rotates obliquely relative to the symmetry axis has a mass quadrupole moment that varies in time, so it will emit gravitational radiation. The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna ( LISA ) mission may be able to detect the gravitational waves from two nearby, rapidly rotating white dwarfs.     

Potentiometric titrations of Bacillus subtilis cells to low pH and a comparison of modeling approaches

To provide constraints on the speciation of bacterial surface functional groups, we have conducted potentiometric titrations using the gram-positive aerobic species Bacillus subtilis, covering the pH range 2.1 to 9.8. Titration experiments were conducted using an auto-titrator assembly, with the bacteria suspended in fixed ionic strength (0.01 to 0.3 M) NaClO₄ solutions. We observed significant adsorption of protons over the entire pH range of this study, including to the lowest pH values examined, indicating that proton saturation of the cell wall did not occur under any of the conditions of the experiments. Ionic strength, over the range studied here, did not have a significant effect on the observed buffering behavior relative to experimental uncertainty. Electrophoretic mobility measurements indicate that the cell wall is negatively charged, even under the lowest pH conditions studied. These experimental results necessitate a definition of the zero proton condition such that the total proton concentration at the pH of suspension is offset to account for the negative bacterial surface charge that tends towards neutrality at pH <2.The buffering intensity of the bacterial suspensions reveals a wide spread of apparent pKa values. This spread was modeled using three significantly different approaches: a Non-Electrostatic Model, a Constant Capacitance Model, and a Langmuir-Freundlich Model. The approaches differ in the manner in which they treat the surface electric field effects, and in whether they treat the proton-active sites as discrete functional groups or as continuous distributions of related sites. Each type of model tested, however, provides an excellent fit to the experimental data, indicating that titration data alone are insufficient for characterizing the molecular-scale reactions that occur on the bacterial surface. Spectroscopic data on the molecular-scale properties of the bacterial surface are required to differentiate between the underlying mechanisms of proton adsorption inherent in these models. The applicability and underlying conceptual foundation of each model is discussed in the context of our current knowledge of the structure of bacterial cell walls.     

Age and tectonomagmatic setting of the Eocene Çöpler–Kabataş magmatic complex and porphyry-epithermal Au deposit, East Central Anatolia, Turkey

The Çöpler epithermal Au deposit and related subeconomic porphyry Cu–Au deposit is hosted by the middle Eocene Çöpler–Kabata? magmatic complex in central eastern Anatolia. The intrusive rocks of the complex were emplaced into Late Paleozoic–Mesozoic metamorphosed sedimentary basement rocks near the northeastern margin of the Tauride-Anatolide Block. Igneous biotite from two samples of the magmatic complex yielded ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar plateau ages of 43.75?±?0.26 Ma and 44.19?±?0.23, whereas igneous hornblende from a third sample yielded a plateau age of 44.13?±?0.38. These ages closely overlap with ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of hydrothermal sericite (44.44?±?0.28 Ma) and biotite (43.84?±?0.26 Ma), and Re–Os ages from two molybdenite samples (44.6?±?0.2 and 43.9?±?0.2 Ma) suggesting a short-lived (<1 my) magmatic and hydrothermal history at Çöpler. No suitable minerals were found that could be used to date the epithermal system, but it is inferred to be close in age to the precursor porphyry system. The Çöpler–Kabata? intrusive rocks show I-type calc-alkaline affinities. Their normalized trace element patterns show enrichments in large ion lithophile and light rare earth elements and relative depletions in middle and heavy rare earth elements, resembling magmas generated in convergent margins. However, given its distance from the coeval Eocene Maden–Helete volcanic arc, the complex is interpreted to be formed in a back-arc setting, in response to Paleocene slab roll-back and upper-plate extension. The tectonomagmatic environment of porphyry-epithermal mineralization at Çöpler is comparable to some other isolated back-arc porphyry systems such as Bajo de la Alumbrera (Argentina) or Bingham Canyon (USA).     

RegCM3区域气候模式对中国气候的模拟

使用RegCM3区域气候模式嵌套ERA40再分析资料,对东亚地区进行了15 a（1987-2001年）时间长度的数值积分试验。结果表明：模式可较好地模拟中国地面气温的分布和季节变化,但存在系统性的冷偏差;对降水的变化模拟也较好,但其地理分布模拟存在一定偏差。     

Multi-species chemical data assimilation with the Danish Eulerian hemispheric model: system description and verification

Satellite retrievals of atmospheric composition provide a wealth of data on a global scale. These complement results from atmospheric chemistry-transport models (CTMs), and can be combined using data assimilation. We present two assimilation schemes coupled to the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM), a three-dimensional, off-line CTM with full photochemistry: a variant on the ensemble Kalman filter and the three-dimensional variational scheme. The aim of this paper is to describe the two schemes and present an initial assessment of their impacts on model skill. Retrievals of multiple atmospheric trace gases are assimilated, namely: NO₂ tropospheric column densities, CH₄ total column densities, and partial column concentrations of O₃, CO and CH₄; these data are retrieved from four satellite sensors. Data for each species are assimilated independently of one another, and other species are only adjusted indirectly via the model’s chemistry and dynamics. Assimilation results are compared with measurements from surface monitoring stations and other satellite retrievals, and preliminary validation results are presented.Reference simulations (without assimilation) grossly underestimate surface CO concentrations, and both assimilation schemes eliminate this large and systematic model bias. The assimilation improves the spatial correlation of modelled CO with surface observations, and improves the spatial correlation between forecasts and retrievals for CO, NO₂ and O₃. Results for CH₄ show a loss of skill due to a mismatch in model bias between two assimilated CH₄ data-sets. Finally, we discuss differences in methodology and results between this paper and a recent study on multi-species chemical data assimilation. Joint optimisation of initial conditions and emission rates offers a promising direction for improving modelled boundary-layer concentrations.     

In situ measurements of contributions to the global electrical circuit by a thunderstorm in southeastern Brazil

The global electrical circuit, which maintains a potential of about 280 kV between the earth and the ionosphere, is thought to be driven mainly by thunderstorms and lightning. However, very few in situ measurements of electrical current above thunderstorms have been successfully obtained. In this paper, we present dc to very low frequency electric fields and atmospheric conductivity measured in the stratosphere (30–35 km altitude) above an active thunderstorm in southeastern Brazil. From these measurements, we estimate the mean quasi-static conduction current during the storm period to be 2.5 ± 1.25 A. Additionally, we examine the transient conduction currents following a large positive cloud-to-ground (+ CG) lightning flash and typical − CG flashes. We find that the majority of the total current is attributed to the quasi-static thundercloud charge, rather than lightning, which supports the classical Wilson model for the global electrical circuit.     

Land surface coupling in regional climate simulations of the West African monsoon

Coupling of the Community Land Model (CLM3) to the ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) substantially improves the simulation of mean climate over West Africa relative to an older version of RegCM3 coupled to the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). Two 10-year simulations (1992–2001) show that the seasonal timing and magnitude of mean monsoon precipitation more closely match observations when the new land surface scheme is implemented. Specifically, RegCM3–CLM3 improves the timing of the monsoon advance and retreat across the Guinean Coast, and reduces a positive precipitation bias in the Sahel and Northern Africa. As a result, simulated temperatures are higher, thereby reducing the negative temperature bias found in the Guinean Coast and Sahel in RegCM3–BATS. In the RegCM3–BATS simulation, warmer temperatures in northern latitudes and wetter soils near the coast create excessively strong temperature and moist static energy gradients, which shifts the African Easterly Jet further north than observed. In the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation, the migration and position of the African Easterly Jet more closely match reanalysis winds. This improvement is triggered by drier soil conditions in the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation and an increase in evapotranspiration per unit precipitation. These results indicate that atmosphere–land surface coupling has the ability to impact regional-scale circulation and precipitation in regions exhibiting strong hydroclimatic gradients.