Turbulent flow over a dune: Green River,Colorado

Detailed echo‐sounder and acoustic Doppler velocimeter measurements are used to assess the temporal and spatial structure of turbulent flow over a mobile dune in a wide, low‐gradient, alluvial reach of the Green River. Based on the geometric position of the sensor over the bedforms, measurements were taken in the wake, in transitional flow at the bedform crest, and in the internal boundary layer. Spatial distributions of Reynolds shear stress, turbulent kinetic energy, turbulence intensity, and correlation coefficient are qualitatively consistent with those over fixed, two‐dimensional bedforms in laboratory flows. Spectral and cospectral analysis demonstrates that energy levels in the lee of the crest (i.e. wake) are two to four times greater than over the crest itself, with minima over the stoss slope (within the developing internal boundary layer). The frequency structure in the wake is sharply defined with single, dominant peaks. Peak and total spectral and cross‐spectral energies vary over the bedform in a manner consistent with wave‐like perturbations that ‘break’ or ‘roll up’ into vortices that amalgamate, grow in size, and eventually diffuse as they are advected downstream. Fluid oscillations in the lee of the dune demonstrate Strouhal similarity between laboratory and field environments, and correspondence between the peak frequencies of these oscillations and the periodicity of surface boils was observed in the field. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assimilating QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Winds with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Surface Wind-Field Simulation over the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas

To achieve a high-quality simulation of the surface wind field in the Chukchi/Beaufort Sea region, quick scatterometer (QuikSCAT) ocean surface winds were assimilated into the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model by using its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. The SeaWinds instrument on board the polar-orbiting QuikSCAT satellite is a specialized radar that measures ice-free ocean surface wind speed and direction at a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. A total of eight assimilation case studies over two five-day periods, 1–5 October 2002 and 20–24 September 2004, were performed. The simulation results with and without the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds were then compared with QuikSCAT data available during the subsequent free-forecast period, coastal station observations, and North American Regional Reanalysis data. It was found that QuikSCAT winds are a potentially valuable resource for improving the simulation of ocean near-surface winds in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas region. Specifically, the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds improved, (1) offshore surface winds as compared to unassimilated QuikSCAT winds, (2) sea-level pressure, planetary boundary-layer height, as well as surface heat fluxes, and (3) low-level wind fields and geopotential height. Verification against QuikSCAT data also demonstrated the temporal consistency and good quality of QuikSCAT observations.     

Seasonal and inter-annual relationships between vegetation and climate in central New Mexico, USA

Linear correlations between seasonal and inter-annual measures of meteorological variables and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are calculated at six nearby yet distinct vegetation communities in semi-arid New Mexico, USA Monsoon season (June–September) precipitation shows considerable positive correlation with NDVI values from the contemporaneous summer, following spring, and following summer. Non-monsoon precipitation (October–May), temperature, and wind display both positive and negative correlations with NDVI values. These meteorological variables influence NDVI variability at different seasons and time lags. Thus vegetation responds to short-term climate variability in complex ways and serves as a source of memory for the climate system.     

U.S. National Forests adapt to climate change through Science–Management partnerships

Developing appropriate management options for adapting to climate change is a new challenge for land managers, and integration of climate change concepts into operational management and planning on United States national forests is just starting. We established science–management partnerships on the Olympic National Forest (Washington) and Tahoe National Forest (California) in the first effort to develop adaptation options for specific national forests. We employed a focus group process in order to establish the scientific context necessary for understanding climate change and its anticipated effects, and to develop specific options for adapting to a warmer climate. Climate change scientists provided the scientific knowledge base on which adaptations could be based, and resource managers developed adaptation options based on their understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and management. General adaptation strategies developed by national forest managers include: (1) reduce vulnerability to anticipated climate-induced stress by increasing resilience at large spatial scales, (2) consider tradeoffs and conflicts that may affect adaptation success, (3) manage for realistic outcomes and prioritize treatments that facilitate adaptation to a warmer climate, (4) manage dynamically and experimentally, and (5) manage for structure and composition. Specific adaptation options include: (1) increase landscape diversity, (2) maintain biological diversity, (3) implement early detection/rapid response for exotic species and undesirable resource conditions, (4) treat large-scale disturbance as a management opportunity and integrate it in planning, (5) implement treatments that confer resilience at large spatial scales, (6) match engineering of infrastructure to expected future conditions, (7) promote education and awareness about climate change among resource staff and local publics, and (8) collaborate with a variety of partners on adaptation strategies and to promote ecoregional management. The process described here can quickly elicit a large amount of information relevant for adaptation to climate change, and can be emulated for other national forests, groups of national forests with similar resources, and other public lands. As adaptation options are iteratively generated for additional administrative units on public lands, management options can be compared, tested, and integrated into adaptive management. Science-based adaptation is imperative because increasing certainty about climate impacts and management outcomes may take decades.     

Implications of recent sea level rise science for low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A.

Recently published work estimates that global sea level rise (SLR) approaching or exceeding 1 m by 2100 is plausible, thus significantly updating projections by the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Furthermore, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the 21st century will not only influence SLR in the next ??90 years, but will also commit Earth to several meters of additional SLR over subsequent centuries. In this context of worsening prospects for substantial SLR, we apply a new geospatial dataset to calculate low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. potentially impacted by SLR in this and following centuries. In total, 20 municipalities with populations greater than 300,000 and 160 municipalities with populations between 50,000 and 300,000 have land area with elevations at or below 6 m and connectivity to the sea, as based on the 1 arc-second National Elevation Dataset. On average, approximately 9% of the area in these coastal municipalities lies at or below 1 m. This figure rises to 36% when considering area at or below 6 m. Areal percentages of municipalities with elevations at or below 1?C6 m are greater than the national average along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. In contrast to the national and international dimensions of and associated efforts to curb GHG emissions, our comparison of low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. clearly shows that SLR will potentially have very local, and disproportionate, impacts.     

Multidimensional upstream weighting for multiphase transport on general grids

The governing equations for multiphase flow in porous media have a mixed character, with both nearly elliptic and nearly hyperbolic variables. The flux for each phase can be decomposed into two parts: (1) a geometry- and rock-dependent term that resembles a single-phase flux; and (2) a mobility term representing fluid properties and rock–fluid interactions. The first term is commonly discretized by two- or multipoint flux approximations (TPFA and MPFA, respectively). The mobility is usually treated with single-point upstream weighting (SPU), also known as dimensional or donor cell upstream weighting. It is well known that when simulating processes with adverse mobility ratios, SPU suffers from grid orientation effects. An important example of this, which will be considered in this work, is the displacement of a heavy oil by water. For these adverse mobility ratio flows, the governing equations are unstable at the modeling scale, rendering a challenging numerical problem. These challenges must be addressed in order to avoid systematic biasing of simulation results. In this work, we present a framework for multidimensional upstream weighting for multiphase flow with buoyancy on general two-dimensional grids. The methodology is based on a dual grid, and the resulting transport methods are provably monotone. The multidimensional transport methods are coupled with MPFA methods to solve the pressure equation. Both explicit and fully implicit approaches are considered for time integration of the transport equations. The results show considerable reduction of grid orientation effects compared to SPU, and the explicit multidimensional approach allows larger time steps. For the implicit method, the total number of non-linear iterations is also reduced when multidimensional upstream weighting is used.     

Growth and mortality of juvenile winter flounder in two New England estuaries

A length-based model for calculating growth and mortality of juvenile winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) populations has been developed. This model is based on work by Sullivan et al. (1990) and incorporates the von Bertalanffy growth equation, including stochasticity in growth, and a mortality rate that decreases exponentially with size. The length-based model was fit to observed size-frequency distributions, and model likelihood profiles were generated to produce 95% confidence intervals about parameter estimates. We analyzed size-frequency distributions of 3 to 15 cm juvenile winter flounder, collected with a 1-m beam trawl, at monthly intervals from June to October during 1993 and 1994. Growth rates were higher at a contaminated site, New Haven Harbor, than at a clean site, the Connecticut River estuary, however, the parameter estimates had overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Mortality rates were similar at the two sites.     

Response of low‐angle dunes to variable flow

Current understanding of bedform dynamics is largely based on field and laboratory observations of bedforms in steady flow environments. There are relatively few investigations of bedforms in flows dominated by unsteadiness associated with rapidly changing flows or tides. As a consequence, the ability to predict bedform response to variable flow is rudimentary. Using high‐resolution multibeam bathymetric data, this study explores the dynamics of a dune field developed by tidally modulated, fluvially dominated flow in the Fraser River Estuary, British Columbia, Canada. The dunes were dominantly low lee angle features characteristic of large, deep river channels. Data were collected over a field ca 1·0 km long and 0·5 km wide through a complete diurnal tidal cycle during the rising limb of the hydrograph immediately prior to peak freshet, yielding the most comprehensive characterization of low‐angle dunes ever reported. The data show that bedform height and lee angle slope respond to variable flow by declining as the tide ebbs, then increasing as the tide rises and the flow velocities decrease. Bedform lengths do not appear to respond to the changes in velocity caused by the tides. Changes in the bedform height and lee angle have a counterclockwise hysteresis with mean flow velocity, indicating that changes in the bedform geometry lag changes in the flow. The data reveal that lee angle slope responds directly to suspended sediment concentration, supporting previous speculation that low‐angle dune morphology is maintained by erosion of the dune stoss and crest at high flow, and deposition of that material in the dune trough.     

中国当代土地利用对区域气候影响的数值模拟

使用RegCM3区域气候模式，嵌套欧洲数值预报中心(ECMWF)ERA40再分析资料，分别进行了中国区域在实际植被和理想植被分布情况下各15年时间长度（1987-2001）的积分试验，以研究我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。通过两个试验结果的对比，研究了我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。分析主要集中于气温、降水等的变化上，并对结果进行了统计显著性检验。结果表明，当代土地利用/植被覆盖变化加强了中国地区冬、夏季的季风环流，同时改变了地表能量平衡状况，从而对各气候要素产生重要影响。冬季，植被改变引起长江以南降水减少、气温降低，长江以北降水增加。夏季，植被改变显著影响了南方地区的气候，使得这里降水增多，黄淮、江淮气温降低，华南气温上升；同时引起中国北方降水减少，气温在西北部分植被退化地区升高。植被变化对日最低、最高气温的影响更大。总体来说，土地利用引起了年平均降水在南方增加、北方减少，年平均气温在南方显著降低。