Predicting the impacts of global warming on wildland fire

Simulations of impacts of a double-CO₂ climate with the Changed Climate Fire Modeling System in Northern California consistently projected increases in area burned and in the frequency of escaped fires compared with simulations of the present climate. However, the magnitude of those increases was strongly influenced by vegetation type, choice of atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) scenario, and choice of climatic forcing variables. The greatest projected increase in fire severity occurred in grasslands, using the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM, with wind speed, temperature, humidity and precipitation as driving variables.     

A fracture-mechanical cellular automaton model of seismicity

We present a cellular automaton model which simulates the process of seismogenesis using rules for evolution which are derived from the field of fracture mechanics, and include an interplay of positive and negative feedbacks. We describe the implementation of this model, and its analysis, in a massively parallel environment using the Connection Machine. Starting from a lattice with a fractal distribution of fracture toughnesses, theb value evolves in a way which closely mimics both the evolutions ofb value observed in the laboratory and derived from earthquake catalogues, reaching a broad and irregular maximum in the period preceding a major event, and declining rapidly during catastrophic failure. We conclude that the processes modelled are a reasonable representation of those occurring in Nature, and that the cellular automaton paradigm is a valuable way of simulating these processes on a large scale in an economical manner.     

Estimating suspended sediment concentrations in areas with limited hydrological data using a mixed‐effects model

Sediment rating curves are commonly used to estimate the suspended sediment load in rivers and streams under the assumption of a constant relation between discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) over time. However, temporal variation in the sediment supply of a watershed results in shifts in this relation by increasing variability and by introducing nonlinearities in the form of hysteresis or a path‐dependent relation. In this study, we used a mixed‐effects linear model to estimate an average SSC–Q relation for different periods of time within the hydrologic cycle while accounting for seasonality and hysteresis. We tested the performance of the mixed‐effects model against the standard rating curve, represented by a generalized least squares regression, by comparing observed and predicted sediment loads for a test case on the Chilliwack River, British Columbia, Canada. In our analyses, the mixed‐effects model reflected more accurate patterns of interpolated SSC from Q data than the rating curve, especially for the low‐flow summer months when the SSC–Q relation is less clear. Akaike information criterion scores were lower for the mixed‐effects model than for the standard model, and the mixed‐effects model explained nearly twice as much variance as the standard model (52% vs 27%). The improved performance was achieved by accounting for variability in the SSC–Q relation within each month and across years for the same month using fixed and random effects, respectively, a characteristic disregarded in the sediment rating curve. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stable isotope and C study of biogenic calcrete in a termite mound, Western Cape, South Africa, and its palaeoenvironmental significance

Late Quaternary terrestrial climate records from the semi-arid zone of the Western Cape of South Africa are rare. However, palaeoenvironmental information may be inferred from ancient termite mounds of the region. Calcrete lenses in these mounds have δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values that show systematic changes with radiocarbon dates, which range from 33,629–36,709 to 21,676–23,256 cal yr BP. These dates confirm that these heuweltjies had been present in the landscape since the last glacial period. The decrease in δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O from 33,629–36,709 to 21,676–23,256 cal yr BP indicates that climate information is recorded by the calcretes. It is suggested that a progressive decline in air temperature and an increase in moisture availability, and a decline in abundance of C₄ or CAM plants, occurred in the region during the time heuweltjie calcite precipitated.     

Issues in Energy Economics Led by Emerging Linkages between the Natural Gas and Power Sectors

Fuel prices in 2006 continued at record levels, with uranium continuing upward unabated and coal, SO₂ emission allowances, and natural gas all softening. This softening did not continue for natural gas, however, whose prices rose, fell and rose again, first following weather influences and, by the second quarter of 2007, continuing at high levels without any support from fundamentals. This article reviews these trends and describes the remarkable increases in fuel expenses for power generation. By the end of 2005, natural gas claimed 55% of annual power sector fuel expenses, even though it was used for only 19% of electric generation. Although natural gas is enormously important to the power sector, the sector also is an important driver of the natural gas market—growing to over 28% of the market even as total use has declined. The article proceeds to discuss globalization, natural gas price risk, and technology developments. Forces of globalization are poised to affect the energy markets in new ways—new in not being only about oil. Of particular interest in the growth of intermodal traffic and its a little-understood impacts on rail traffic patterns and transportation costs, and expected rapidly expanding LNG imports toward the end of the decade. Two aspects of natural gas price risk are discussed: how understanding the use of gas in the power sector helps define price ceilings and floors for natural gas, and how the recent increase in the natural gas production after years of record drilling could alter the supply–demand balance for the better. The article cautions, however, that escalation in natural gas finding and development costs is countering the more positive developments that emerged during 2006. Regarding technology, the exploitation of unconventional natural gas was one highlight. So too was the queuing up of coal-fired power plants for the post-2010 period, a phenomenon that has come under great pressure with many consequences including increased pressures in the natural gas market. The most significant illustration of these forces was the early 2007 suspension of development plans by a large power company, well before the Supreme Court’s ruling on CO₂ as a tailpipe pollutant and President Bush’s call for global goals on CO₂ emissions.

Experimental verification of the fracture density and shear‐wave splitting relationship using synthetic silica cemented sandstones with a controlled fracture geometry

We present laboratory ultrasonic measurements of shear‐wave splitting from two synthetic silica cemented sandstones. The manufacturing process, which enabled silica cementation of quartz sand grains, was found to produce realistic sandstones of average porosity 29.7 ± 0.5% and average permeability 29.4 ± 11.3 mD. One sample was made with a regular distribution of aligned, penny‐shaped voids to simulate meso‐scale fractures in reservoir rocks, while the other was left blank. Ultrasonic shear waves were measured with a propagation direction of 90° to the coincident bedding plane and fracture normal. In the water saturated blank sample, shear‐wave splitting, the percentage velocity difference between the fast and slow shear waves, of <0.5% was measured due to the bedding planes (or layering) introduced during sample preparation. In the fractured sample, shear‐wave splitting (corrected for layering anisotropy) of 2.72 ± 0.58% for water, 2.80 ± 0.58% for air and 3.21 ± 0.58% for glycerin saturation at a net pressure of 40 MPa was measured. Analysis of X‐ray CT scan images was used to determine a fracture density of 0.0298 ± 0.077 in the fractured sample. This supports theoretical predictions that shear‐wave splitting (SWS) can be used as a good estimate for fracture density in porous rocks (i.e., SWS = 100ε_f, where ε_f is fracture density) regardless of pore fluid type, for wave propagation at 90° to the fracture normal.     

Size,shape and spatial arrangement of mega‐scale glacial lineations from a large and diverse dataset

Mega‐scale glacial lineations (MSGLs) are a characteristic landform on ice stream beds. Solving the puzzle of their formation is key to understanding how ice interacts with its bed and how this, in turn, influences the dynamics of ice streams. However, a comprehensive and detailed characterization of this landform's size, shape and spatial arrangement, which might serve to test and refine formational theories, is largely lacking. This paper presents a detailed morphometric analysis and comparison of 4043 MSGLs from eight palaeo‐ice stream settings: three offshore (Norway and Antarctica), four onshore (Canada), and one from under a modern ice stream in West Antarctica. The length of MSGLs is lower than previously suggested (mode 1000–2000 m; median 2892 m), and they initiate and terminate at various locations on an ice stream bed. Their spatial arrangement reveals a pattern that is characterized by an exceptional parallel conformity (80% of all mapped MSGLs have an azimuth within 5° from the mean values), and a fairly constant lateral spacing (mode 200–300 m; median 330 m), which we interpret as an indication that MSGLs are a spatially self‐organized phenomenon. Results show that size, shape and spatial arrangement of MSGLs are consistent both within and also generally between different ice stream beds. We suggest this results from a common mechanism of formation, which is largely insensitive to local factors. Although the elongation of MSGLs (mode 6–8; median 12.2) is typically higher than features described as drumlins, these values and those of their width (mode 100–200 m; median 268 m) overlap, which suggests the two landforms are part of a morphological continuum and may share a similar origin. We compare their morphometry with explicit predictions made by the groove‐ploughing and rilling instability theories of MSGL formation. Although the latter was most compatible, neither is fully supported by observations. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

The use of RFID in soil‐erosion research

In this paper, we examine the use of radio frequency identification (RFID) tags for studying soil erosion. Surrogate soil particles were created by coating RFID tags with silicone clay and bronze powder to give them an overall density similar to that of quartz particles. The particles were between 2.5 mm and 4.0 mm in diameter and had specific weights of 2.5 to 3.0. These tagged particles were deployed on two plots: first, in a proof‐of‐concept laboratory study and secondly in a field study, the latter involving repeated surveys after rainfall events. Seven surveys under natural rainfall over four months yielded recovery rates averaged 56%. RFIDs are shown to provide useful insights into the movement of individual soil particles during erosion processes. As RFID technology advances, further miniaturization is likely to occur enabling the movement of a greater range of soil particles to be studied, and we may anticipate improvements to the signal detection so that recovery does not rely wholly on visual identification. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.