Incorporation of conceptual and parametric uncertainty into radionuclide flux estimates from a fractured granite rock mass

Detailed numerical flow and radionuclide simulations are used to predict the flux of radionuclides from three underground nuclear tests located in the Climax granite stock on the Nevada Test Site. The numerical modeling approach consists of both a regional-scale and local-scale flow model. The regional-scale model incorporates conceptual model uncertainty through the inclusion of five models of hydrostratigraphy and five models describing recharge processes for a total of 25 hydrostratigraphic–recharge combinations. Uncertainty from each of the 25 models is propagated to the local-scale model through constant head boundary conditions that transfer hydraulic gradients and flow patterns from each of the model alternatives in the vicinity of the Climax stock, a fluid flux calibration target, and model weights that describe the plausibility of each conceptual model. The local-scale model utilizes an upscaled discrete fracture network methodology where fluid flow and radionuclides are restricted to an interconnected network of fracture zones mapped onto a continuum grid. Standard Monte Carlo techniques are used to generate 200 random fracture zone networks for each of the 25 conceptual models for a total of 5,000 local-scale flow and transport realizations. Parameters of the fracture zone networks are based on statistical analysis of site-specific fracture data, with the exclusion of fracture density, which was calibrated to match the amount of fluid flux simulated through the Climax stock by the regional-scale models. Radionuclide transport is simulated according to a random walk particle method that tracks particle trajectories through the fracture continuum flow fields according to advection, dispersion and diffusional mass exchange between fractures and matrix. The breakthrough of a conservative radionuclide with a long half-life is used to evaluate the influence of conceptual and parametric uncertainty on radionuclide mass flux estimates. The fluid flux calibration target was found to correlate with fracture density, and particle breakthroughs were generally found to increase with increases in fracture density. Boundary conditions extrapolated from the regional-scale model exerted a secondary influence on radionuclide breakthrough for models with equal fracture density. The incorporation of weights into radionuclide flux estimates resulted in both noise about the original (unweighted) mass flux curves and decreases in the variance and expected value of radionuclide mass flux.     

A risk assessment approach to contaminants in Port Curtis, Queensland, Australia

Port Curtis is one of Australia's leading ports for which substantial industrial expansion is proposed over the next decade. However, there has been little attempt to date to assess the extent of contamination in waters, sediments and biota or to characterize the potential impacts of contaminants on aquatic biota. Contaminants of potential concern to biota and human health were investigated in the Port Curtis estuary using a screening-level risk assessment approach. Dissolved metal concentrations in waters were below [ANZECC/ARMCANZ, 2000. Australian and New Zealand Guidelines for Fresh and Marine Water Quality, Vol. 1. The Guidelines, Australian and New Zealand Environment and Conservation Council and Agriculture and Resource Management Council of Australia and New Zealand] trigger values, suggesting low risk of these contaminants. In sediments, arsenic, nickel and chromium concentrations exceeded interim sediment quality guidelines-low (ISQG-low), but were also high in the reference zone suggesting a natural origin. Historical data on naphthalene in Harbour sediments showed that it was also of potential concern. Bioaccumulation of contaminants in a range of biota was also used as an indicator of contaminant exposure. Biota were generally enriched in metals and tributyltin, which was also elevated in water and sediments. Although not unique to Port Curtis, mercury in barramundi was identified as a potential risk to human health.     

Late quaternary sea‐level changes,crustal movements and coastal evolution in Northumberland,UK

Northumberland lies in the transition between Holocene emergence and submergence and is thus a critical zone for testing models of isostatic rebound. We have collected data from this area to reconstruct relative sea‐level changes and lateral coastline movements for the last 14000 y. These are deposits from tidal marsh, back‐barrier wetland and terrestrial environments producing 47 sea‐level index points from 12 sites. There is no unequivocal evidence for Late Devensian sea levels above present and the reliable sea‐level index points are restricted between −6 m and +2.5 m relative to present and 9.0–2.5 kyr cal. BP. Analysis of these quantifies differential responses to glacio‐ and hydroisostatic rebound, with the northern sites recording a mid‐Holocene sea‐level maximum ca. 2.5 m above present, whereas the southern sites show a maximum ca. 0.5 m above present. These observations show a reasonable fit with the predictions from quantitative models of glacio and hydroisostatic rebound, but there is currently no unique solution of Earth and ice model parameters that will explain all the sea‐level observations. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of innovation in advancing understanding of hydrological processes

Innovation and understanding hydrological processes are intimately linked. Existing research has demonstrated the role of technological, societal, and political drivers in shaping and delivering new understandings in hydrological processes. In this paper we pose three research questions to explore how innovation can further our understanding of hydrological processes, if working towards the sustainable development goals (SDGs) provides a helpful focus, and whether specific mechanisms can be used to facilitate innovation and research into hydrological processes. First, we examine key aspects of innovation and explore innovation in the context of water security. We then present a series of innovation projects to determine their effectiveness in delivering innovation in managing hydrological processes, but also their contribution to scientific understanding. Our research suggests that product and process innovation were more closely related to increasing scientific understanding of hydrological processes than other forms of innovation. The NE Water Hub demonstrated that the design of the innovation ecosystem was crucial to its success and provides a model to integrate innovation and research more widely to further scientific understanding and deliver behaviour change to address the SDGs.     

Effects of settling organic matter on the bioaccumulation of cadmium and BDE-99 by Baltic Sea benthic invertebrates

Settling organic matter (OM) is the major food source for heterotrophic benthic fauna. The high sorption affinity of many contaminants for OM implies that OM can influence both the distribution and bioavailability of contaminants. Here, we experimentally examine the role of settling OM of various nutritional qualities on the bioaccumulation of cadmium and the flame retardant BDE-99 by three benthic invertebrates; Macoma balthica, Monoporeia affinis and Marenzelleria sp. Contaminants were associated with three types of OM; a microalgae (Tetraselmis spp.), lignin and sediment. Bioaccumulation of Cd was proportional to OM nutritional quality for all three species, and was species-specific in the order Marenzelleria>M. balthica>M. affinis. BDE-99 bioaccumulation was highest in the treatment with the most nutritious OM (Tetraselmis). Consequently, both benthic species composition and the nutritive value of organic matter settling to the seafloor can have a substantial effect on the bioaccumulation of both metals and organic contaminants.     

CCAMLR process of risk assessment to minimise the effects of longline fishing mortality on seabirds

We describe the process used in the fisheries management system of the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) to minimise seabird bycatch, and the risk-assessment methodology developed to assist this. We examine the progress of several Regional Fishery Management Organisations in taking steps to address seabird bycatch. CCAMLR has the most advanced system of management among the RFMOS covered in this review, and has made the most demonstrable progress in reducing seabird bycatch levels in its longline fisheries. A combination of proven mitigation measures, extensive monitoring by independent observers, annual expert review of seabird bycatch rates and evolving fishery and mitigation practices have been instrumental in reducing seabird bycatch in CCAMLR fisheries.     

‘I’ve paid to observe lions, not map roads!’ – An emotional journey with conservation volunteers in South Africa

As fundamental as emotions may be in our experiences with wildlife, very little research addresses this topic. The following paper provides insight into the emotional responses of conservation volunteers participating on conservation holidays through four ethnographic case-studies. Six common emotional responses were identified: anguish, disappointment, frustration, exhilaration, awe and compassion. These emotional highs and lows shaped the volunteer experience, as the realities of wildlife conservation in South Africa upset the culturally constructed, emotionally appealing vision of African wilderness that the volunteers expected. While the positive emotions associated with idealised expectations of African wildlife provide an ideal basis upon which to commercialise nature conservation, they generate a series of tensions in practice. The paper makes an important empirical contribution to current debates surrounding the economic exploitation of affect, showing how emotions underpin the commercialisation of conservation, both through the configuration of the volunteers’ wildlife experiences and the scope of conservation that is practised.     

Asian monsoon climate during the Last Glacial Maximum: palaeo‐data–model comparisons

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (23–19 ka BP) in the Asian monsoon region is generally described as cool and dry, due to a strong winter monsoon. More recently, however, palaeo‐data and climate model simulations have argued for a more variable LGM Asian monsoon climate with distinct regional differences. We compiled, evaluated, and partly re‐assessed proxy records for the Asian monsoon region in terms of wet/dry climatic conditions based on precipitation and effective moisture, and of sea surface temperatures. The comparison of the palaeo‐data set to LGM simulations by the Climate Community System Model version 3 (CCSM3) shows fairly good agreement: a dry LGM climate in the western and northern part due to a strengthened winter monsoon and/or strengthened westerly winds and wetter conditions in equatorial areas, due to a stronger summer monsoon. Data–model discrepancies are seen in some areas and are ascribed to the fairly coarse resolution of CCSM3 and/or to uncertainties in the reconstructions. Differences are also observed between the reconstructed and simulated northern boundaries of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The reconstructions estimate a more southern position over southern India and the Bay of Bengal, whereas CCSM3 simulates a more northern position. In Indochina, the opposite is the case. The palaeo‐data indicate that climatic conditions changed around 20–19 ka BP, with some regions receiving higher precipitation and some experiencing drier conditions, which would imply a distinct shift in summer monsoon intensity. This shift was probably triggered by the late LGM sea‐level rise, which led to changes in atmosphere–ocean interactions in the Indian Ocean. The overall good correspondence between reconstructions and CCSM3 suggests that CCSM3 simulates LGM climate conditions over subtropical and tropical areas fairly well. The few high‐resolution qualitative and quantitative palaeo‐records available for the large Asian monsoon region make reconstructions however still uncertain.