Leveraging modern climatology to increase adaptive capacity across protected area networks

Human-driven changes in the global environment pose an increasingly urgent challenge for the management of ecosystems that is made all the more difficult by the uncertain future of both environmental conditions and ecological responses. Land managers need strategies to increase regional adaptive capacity, but relevant and rapid assessment approaches are lacking. To address this need, we developed a method to assess regional protected area networks across biophysically important climatic gradients often linked to biodiversity and ecosystem function. We plot the land of the southwestern United States across axes of historical climate space, and identify landscapes that may serve as strategic additions to current protected area portfolios. Considering climate space is straightforward, and it can be applied using a variety of relevant climate parameters across differing levels of land protection status. The resulting maps identify lands that are climatically distinct from existing protected areas, and may be utilized in combination with other ecological and socio-economic information essential to collaborative landscape-scale decision-making. Alongside other strategies intended to protect species of special concern, natural resources, and other ecosystem services, the methods presented herein provide another important hedging strategy intended to increase the adaptive capacity of protected area networks.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Deepwater Horizon</Emphasis> Oil Spill Impacts on Salt Marsh Fiddler Crabs (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Uca</Emphasis> spp.)

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill was the largest marine oil spill in US waters to date and one of the largest worldwide. Impacts of this spill on salt marsh vegetation have been well documented, although impacts on marsh macroinvertebrates have received less attention. To examine impacts of the oil spill on an important marsh invertebrate and ecosystem engineer, we conducted a meta-analysis on fiddler crabs (Uca spp.) using published sources and newly available Natural Resources Damage Assessment (NRDA) and Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) data. Fiddler crabs influence marsh ecosystem structure and function through their burrowing and feeding activities and are key prey for a number of marsh and estuarine predators. We tested the hypothesis that the spill affected fiddler crab burrow density (crab abundance), burrow diameter (crab size), and crab species composition. Averaged across multiple studies, sites, and years, our synthesis revealed a negative effect of oiling on all three metrics. Burrow densities were reduced by 39 % in oiled sites, with impacts and incomplete recovery observed over 2010–2014. Burrow diameters were reduced from 2010 to 2011, but appeared to have recovered by 2012. Fiddler crab species composition was altered through at least 2013 and only returned to reference conditions where marsh vegetation recovered, via restoration planting in one case. Given the spatial and temporal extent of data analyzed, this synthesis provides compelling evidence that the Deepwater Horizon spill suppressed populations of fiddler crabs in oiled marshes, likely affecting other ecosystem attributes, including marsh productivity, marsh soil characteristics, and associated predators.     

The effect of uncertainty on estimates of hurricane surge hazards

It is shown here that uncertainty can significantly affect estimated surge levels over a wide range of annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). For AEPs in the range of 1 × 10^?2–5 × 10^?2 in the New Orleans area, estimated surge values with and without consideration of uncertainty differ by about 0.5–1.0 m. Similarly, suppression of natural variability, such as using a single value for Mississippi River discharge in surge simulations, rather than allowing the discharge to vary probabilistically, is shown to produce deviations up to 1 m for the 1 × 10^?2 AEP in locations within the mainline river levees in this area. It is also shown that uncertainty can play a critical role in the analysis of very low probability events in the AEP range 1 × 10^?4–1 × 10^?6. Such events are typically used in designs of structures with major societal impacts. It is shown here that, for this range of AEPs along the west coast of Florida, the neglect of uncertainty can under-predict design surge levels by about 20 % compared to estimated surge levels that include uncertainty.     

A hurricane surge risk assessment framework using the joint probability method and surge response functions

Hurricane surge events have caused devastating damage in active-hurricane areas all over the world. The ability to predict surge elevations and to use this information for damage estimation is fundamental for saving lives and protecting property. In this study, we developed a framework for evaluating hurricane flood risk and identifying areas that are more prone to them. The approach is based on the joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) using surge response functions (SRFs) (JPM-OS-SRF). Derived from a discrete set of high-fidelity storm surge simulations, SRFs are non-dimensional, physics-based empirical equations with an algebraic form, used to rapidly estimate surge as a function of hurricane parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location). The advantage of an SRF-based approach is that a continuum of storm scenarios can be efficiently evaluated and used to estimate continuous probability density functions for surge extremes, producing more statistically stable surge hazard assessments without adding measurably to epistemic uncertainty. SRFs were developed along the coastline and then used to estimate maximum surge elevations with respect to a set of hurricane parameters. Integrating information such as ground elevation, property value and population with the JPM-OS-SRF allows quantification of storm surge-induced hazard impacts over the continuum of storm possibilities, yielding a framework to create the following risk-based products, which can be used to assist in hurricane hazard management and decision making: (1) expected annual loss maps; (2) flood damage versus return period relationships; and (3) affected business (e.g., number of business, number of employees) versus return period relationships. By employing several simplifying assumptions, the framework is demonstrated at three northern Gulf of Mexico study sites exhibiting similar surge hazard exposure. The framework results reveal Gulfport, MS, USA is at relatively more risk of economic loss than Corpus Christi, TX, USA, and Panama City, FL, USA. Note that economic processes are complex and very interrelated to most other human activities. Our intention here is to present a methodology to quantify the flood damage (i.e., infrastructure economic loss, number of businesses affected, number of employees in these affected businesses and sales volume in these affected businesses) but not to discuss the complex interactions of these damages with other economic activities and recovery plans.

     

The entrainment of high-viscosity magma into low-viscosity magma in eruption conduits

We report experiments on the flow of two fluids of contrasting viscosity through a pipe in which low-viscosity fluid occupies the center of the pipe. The volume flux of the low-viscosity fluid in the pipe increased during an experiment but did not reach 100% in most cases. The transition from high- to low-viscosity-dominated outflow involved a drop in pressure gradient and an increase in flow rate due to reduced viscous resistance in the pipe. Initially, the central flow was thin and parallel-sided, but as its diameter increased the flow became unstable. A sequence of instabilities was observed during the course of each experiment, both in time and as a function of height in the pipe. In the most commonly observed instability the central flow adopted a helical geometry. The transition from parallel-sided to unstable flow first appeared at the top of the pipe and propagated downwards against the flow. Axisymmetric instabilities originating at the pipe entrance were also observed. All forms of instability exhibited entrainment of viscous fluid into the faster moving central flow. Entrainment was extensive early in the existence of the central flow, but later on the volume flux of lower-viscosity fluid in the central flow rose more rapidly than the rate of entrainment and the proportion of lower-viscosity fluid increased with time. These compositional changes determined the viscosity of the central flow which was found to control its diameter and velocity. In banded pumice deposits, silicic pumice without mafic component is commonly erupted alongside banded pumice blocks. We infer that banded pumice may correspond to the central flow in our experiments, i. e., that viscous magma has been incorporated into less viscous melt, and that pure acid pumice is derived from the outer flow. Changes in eruption style may be caused by variations in pressure gradient and flow rate due to changes in the viscosity of the melt in the conduit. Varied mafic/silicic proportions and degree of mixing in magmatic associations are controlled by the bulk volume erupted, discharge rate, initial temperature difference and aspect ratio of the conduit.     

Preliminary evidence for human fecal contamination in corals of the Florida Keys,USA

Corals and reef environments are under increased stress from anthropogenic activities, particularly those in the vicinity of heavily populated areas such as the Florida Keys. The potential adverse impacts of wastewater can affect both the environment and human health; however, because of the high decay rate of bacterial indicators in coral reef waters it has been difficult to document the presence of microbial contaminants and to assign risks in these environments. Here we show initial evidence that microorganisms associated with human feces are concentrated along the surface of coral heads relative to the overlying water column in the Florida Keys. Bacterial indicators (fecal coliform bacteria, enterococci or Clostridium perfringens) were detected in 66.7% of the coral surface microlayer (CSM) samples at levels between five and 1000 CFU/100 ml, but were found infrequently and at low numbers in the overlying water column ( < or = 2.5 CFU/100 ml). Similarly, enterovirus nucleic acid sequences, an indicator of human-specific waste, were detected in 93.3% of the CSM samples and only once in the water column by cell culture. Results show that coral mucus may accumulate enteric microorganisms in reef environments, and may indicate a risk to public and environmental health despite low indicator levels in the surrounding water.     

Water‐worked gravel beds in laboratory flumes – a natural analogue?

An investigation has been conducted to identify the key parameters that are likely to scale laboratory sediment deposits to the field scale. Two types of bed formation were examined: one where sediment is manually placed and screeded and the second where sediment is fed into a running flume. This later technique created deposits through sequential cycles of sediment transport and deposition. Detailed bed surface topography measurements have been made over a screeded bed and three fed beds. In addition, bulk subsurface porosity and hydraulic conductivity have been measured. By comparing the four beds, results revealed that certain physical properties of the screeded bed were clearly different from those of the fed beds. The screeded bed had a random organization of grains on both the surface and within the subsurface. The fed beds exhibited greater surface and subsurface organization and complexity, and had a number of properties that closely resembled those found for water‐worked gravel beds. The surfaces were water‐worked and armoured and there was preferential particle orientation and direction of imbrication in the subsurface. This suggested that fed beds are able to simulate, in a simplified manner, both the surface and subsurface properties of established gravel‐bed river deposits. The near‐bed flow properties were also compared. It revealed that the use of a screeded bed will typically cause an underestimation in the degree of temporal variability in the flow. Furthermore, time‐averaged streamwise velocities were found to be randomly organized over the screeded bed but were organized into long streamwise flow structures over the fed beds. It clearly showed that caution should be taken when comparing velocity measurements over screeded beds with water‐worked beds, and that the formation of fed beds offers an improved way of investigating intragravel flow and sediment–water interface exchange processes in gravel‐bed rivers at a laboratory scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variable Grid Method: An Intuitive Approach for Simultaneously Quantifying and Visualizing Spatial Data and Uncertainty

Efforts to develop applications and methods that effectively quantify and communicate uncertainty associated with spatial data remains a focus within many scientific communities. However, the inherent complexity of uncertainty makes it difficult to define, characterize, and represent. Frequently, the products of spatial and spatio‐temporal data are presented without a clear explanation of the inherent uncertainty underlying the data. As uses and applications for spatial data and their products continues to increase, so does the importance for utilizing reliable approaches to effectively communicate spatial data along with their inherent uncertainties. To address this need, the Variable Grid Method (VGM) was developed as an intuitive approach that simultaneously communicates both spatial patterns and trends and the uncertainty associated with data or their analyses. This article details the VGM approach and demonstrates the utility of the VGM to provide critical information about the relationship between uncertainty and spatial data, necessary to support the increasing utilization of spatial information for a wide range of research and other needs.     

Mapping the Globalization of the Temporary Staffing Industry*

Very little is currently known about the globalization of the temporary staffing industry, a strategically significant sector given its role in promulgating wider labor market flexibility. This article starts to rectify this research lacuna in four ways: by conceptualizing the international expansion of temporary staffing and comparing it to other business service sectors, by identifying and mapping the top twenty transnational staffing agencies, by offering a typology of the leading transnational agencies based on their functional and geographic characteristics, and by charting a research agenda for future work on this sector.