Selection and quality assessment of Landsat data for the North American forest dynamics forest history maps of the US

Using the NASA Earth Exchange platform, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project mapped forest history wall-to-wall, annually for the contiguous US (1986–2010) using the Vegetation Change Tracker algorithm. As with any effort to identify real changes in remotely sensed time-series, data gaps, shifts in seasonality, misregistration, inconsistent radiometry and cloud contamination can be sources of error. We discuss the NAFD image selection and processing stream (NISPS) that was designed to minimize these sources of error. The NISPS image quality assessments highlighted issues with the Landsat archive and metadata including inadequate georegistration, unreliability of the pre-2009 L5 cloud cover assessments algorithm, missing growing-season imagery and paucity of clear views. Assessment maps of Landsat 5–7 image quantities and qualities are presented that offer novel perspectives on the growing-season archive considered for this study. Over 150,000+ Landsat images were considered for the NAFD project. Optimally, one high quality cloud-free image in each year or a total of 12,152 images would be used. However, to accommodate data gaps and cloud/shadow contamination 23,338 images were needed. In 220 specific path-row image years no acceptable images were found resulting in data gaps in the annual national map products.     

Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.     

Gondwana breakup: no evidence for a Davie Fracture Zone offshore northern Mozambique,Tanzania and Kenya

Plate tectonic reconstructions assume a major inactive transform fault, the Davie Fracture Zone, in the West Somali Basin, along which Madagascar is thought to have migrated southwards following Gondwana breakup in the Mesozoic. Based on the interpretation of reflection seismic data, we show that the Walu Ridge offshore Kenya and the Kerimbas Basin offshore northern Mozambique are tectonically unrelated to the southward motion of Madagascar and correlate with Late Cretaceous volcanism and inversion in Kenya and the evolution of the East African Rift System respectively. Offshore Tanzania, geophysical data do not show basement structures indicating the presence of a major transform fault. These results challenge the commonly supported transform margin concept and imply a more southerly pre‐breakup position of Madagascar within Gondwana. Opening of the West Somali Basin by SW‐propagating oblique rifting and seafloor spreading is proposed.     

Habitat Restoration from an Ecosystem Goods and Services Perspective: Application of a Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Model

Estuarine ecosystems provide many services to humans, but these ecosystems are also under pressure from human development, which has led to large investments in habitat protection and restoration. Restoration in estuaries is typically focused on emergent and submerged vegetation with the goal of achieving target areal coverage based on historic conditions. Such restoration targets assume no spatial heterogeneity in habitat value and bypass the functional target of restoring or maintaining delivery of ecosystem goods and services (EGS). We have developed a spatially explicit individual-based behavioral model intended to explore the functional role of habitat restoration on EGS delivery in an index system (Tampa Bay, FL) and for an index EGS (recreational fishing). Model scenarios are based on interaction of inter-annual differences in salinity/temperature patterns (wet, dry, average) with hindcasted “increases” in coverage and distribution of seagrass. Model predictions indicated that the effect of seagrass restoration to historic (1950s) levels on both fish and fishery production is dependent on salinity and temperature. This dependence is based on predicted fish response both to habitat changes and the effective spatial scale of different habitat components. Overall, average salinity/temperature conditions facilitated the highest positive functional response to seagrass restoration with extreme wet/dry years yielding lower or even negative functional responses, but these responses were localized and not homogenous about the estuary. The results of this study provide a methodology for using functional targets in restoration planning and highlight the importance of considering the entire habitat mosaic in valuing restored habitat from an EGS perspective.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Deepwater Horizon</Emphasis> Oil Spill Impacts on Salt Marsh Fiddler Crabs (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Uca</Emphasis> spp.)

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill was the largest marine oil spill in US waters to date and one of the largest worldwide. Impacts of this spill on salt marsh vegetation have been well documented, although impacts on marsh macroinvertebrates have received less attention. To examine impacts of the oil spill on an important marsh invertebrate and ecosystem engineer, we conducted a meta-analysis on fiddler crabs (Uca spp.) using published sources and newly available Natural Resources Damage Assessment (NRDA) and Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) data. Fiddler crabs influence marsh ecosystem structure and function through their burrowing and feeding activities and are key prey for a number of marsh and estuarine predators. We tested the hypothesis that the spill affected fiddler crab burrow density (crab abundance), burrow diameter (crab size), and crab species composition. Averaged across multiple studies, sites, and years, our synthesis revealed a negative effect of oiling on all three metrics. Burrow densities were reduced by 39 % in oiled sites, with impacts and incomplete recovery observed over 2010–2014. Burrow diameters were reduced from 2010 to 2011, but appeared to have recovered by 2012. Fiddler crab species composition was altered through at least 2013 and only returned to reference conditions where marsh vegetation recovered, via restoration planting in one case. Given the spatial and temporal extent of data analyzed, this synthesis provides compelling evidence that the Deepwater Horizon spill suppressed populations of fiddler crabs in oiled marshes, likely affecting other ecosystem attributes, including marsh productivity, marsh soil characteristics, and associated predators.     

Where Are the Women? Accounting for Discrepancies in Female Doctorates in U.S. Geography

Although there have been noticeable improvements in recent years, geography continues to be a predominantly male discipline. The percentage of women receiving PhDs in geography has tracked lower than the U.S. average of female PhDs. Previous studies of women's contribution to geography have focused on personal accounts or on the study of some of the most prominent practitioners, with a few studies using basic data on PhDs awarded and Association of American Geographers membership to determine trends. This article provides a comprehensive overview of doctoral degrees in geography by gender, over time, and across all universities in the United States by examining an alternative database, that of doctoral dissertations. The analysis yields three separate types of results. First, historical and contemporary variations among U.S. universities are examined. Second, data indicate that male and female doctoral students differ in the sex of their advisor. Third, a simple regression model explains some of the discrepancies in the proportion of female doctoral students by department. In sum, this article provides a comprehensive empirical study of the factors that might contribute to the continued disparities in female doctoral students in geography.     

Dynamics and role of the Durban cyclonic eddy in the KwaZulu-Natal Bight ecosystem

The semi-permanent Durban Eddy is a mesoscale, lee-trapped, cold-core cyclonic circulation that occurs off the east coast of South Africa between Durban in the north and Sezela, some 70 km to the south. When present, strong north-eastward countercurrents reaching 100 cm s^–1 are found inshore. It is hypothesised that the cyclone is driven by the strong south-westward flowing Agulhas Current offshore of the regressing shelf edge near Durban. Analysis of ADCP data and satellite imagery shows the eddy to be present off Durban approximately 55% of the time, with an average lifespan of 8.6 days, and inter-eddy periods of 4 to 8 days. After spin-up the eddy breaks loose from its lee position and propagates downstream on the inshore boundary of the Agulhas Current. The eddy is highly variable in occurrence, strength and downstream propagation speeds. There is no detectable seasonal cycle in eddy occurrence, with the Natal Pulse causing more variability than any seasonal signal. A thermistor array deployed in the eddy centre, together with ship CTD data, indicates upward doming of the thermal structure in the eddy core associated with cooler water and nutrients being moved higher in the water column, stimulating primary production. Together with the use of satellite imagery, our findings indicate a second mechanism of upwelling, viz. divergent upwelling in the northern limb of the eddy. Satellite-tracked surface drifters released in the eddy demonstrated the potential for nutrient-rich eddy water to be transported northwards along the inshore regions of the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Bight, thus contributing to the functioning of the bight ecosystem, as well as southwards along the KZN and Transkei coasts – both by the eddy migrating downstream and by eddy water being recirculated into the inshore boundary of the Agulhas Current itself.     

A non-hydrostatic model for the numerical study of landslide-generated waves

This paper proposes and demonstrates a two-layer depth-averaged model with non-hydrostatic pressure correction to simulate landslide-generated waves. Landslide (lower layer) and water (upper layer) motions are governed by the general shallow water equations derived from mass and momentum conservation laws. The landslide motion and wave generation/propagation are separately formulated, but they form a coupled system. Our model combines some features of the landslide analysis model DAN3D and the tsunami analysis model COMCOT and adds a non-hydrostatic pressure correction. We use the new model to simulate a 2007 rock avalanche-generated wave event at Chehalis Lake, British Columbia, Canada. The model results match both the observed distribution of the rock avalanche deposit in the lake and the wave run-up trimline along the shoreline. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the importance of accounting for the non-hydrostatic dynamic pressure at the landslide-water interface, as well as the influence of the internal strength of the landslide on the size of the generated waves. Finally, we compare the numerical results of landslide-generated waves simulated with frictional and Voellmy rheologies. Similar maximum wave run-ups can be obtained using the two different rheologies, but the frictional model better reproduces the known limit of the rock avalanche deposit and is thus considered to yield the best overall results in this particular case.     

Effect of heat treatment on dynamic properties of selected rock types taken from the Salt Range in Pakistan

Temperature is one of the variables that influence the elasto-plastic behavior and integrity of rock outcrops. Fluctuations in temperature can trigger alteration of some of the mineral properties and impact the brittle-plastic transition. Initiation and propagation of thermally induced tension cracks tend to weaken most rock types. The principal goal of this study was to anticipate impacts of thermal stress-strain cycles on the dynamic response of representative rock units exposed in the Khewra Gorge of the Salt Range Punjab of Pakistan. Ten types of sedimentary rock units were sampled, including marl, dolomite, three types of limestone, and five different sandstones exhibiting varying characteristics in outcrop. Boulder specimens were collected from the field and transported to the laboratory to prepare 50 drill cores that could be subjected to thermal cycling between 50 and 200 °C in increments of 50 °C. Room temperature core samples were tested using an Erudite resonance frequency meter to measure their Q-factors and the resonance frequency (F_r) at an applied loading frequency of 7 KHz with 0.01 V output voltage. Results suggest that thermal cycling tends to reduce the dynamic Young’s modulus (E_d) and Q-factor. Other parameters, such as damping ratio (ξ), specific damping capacity (Ψ), and loss factor (?) appeared to increase with increasing temperature cycles, likely as a result of developing thermally induced tensile fractures. The resultant values of the null hypothesis (t-critical and t-stats) suggests that the null hypothesis can be discarded because there was no observable difference between the measured and expected values for the cores tested. The observations and data emanating from this study might be useful in designing low-level radioactive waste landfills, nuclear waste repositories, and deep underground excavations where the increased temperature could alter the mechanical behavior of the parent rock mass.