Incorporating Spatial Dependence in Predictive Vegetation Models: Residual Interpolation Methods*

Predictive vegetation modeling can be used statistically to relate the distribution of vegetation across a landscape as a function of important environmental variables. Often these models are developed without considering the spatial pattern that is inherent in biogeographical data, resulting from either biotic processes or missing or misspecified environmental variables. Including spatial dependence explicitly in a predictive model can be an efficient way to improve model accuracy with the available data. In this study, model residuals were interpolated and added to model predictions, and the resulting prediction accuracies were assessed. Adding kriged residuals improved model accuracy more often than adding simulated residuals, although some alliances showed no improvement or worse accuracy when residuals were added. In general, the prediction accuracies that were not increased by adding kriged residuals were either rare in the sample or had high nonspatial model accuracy. Regression interpolation methods can be an important addition to current tools used in predictive vegetation models as they allow observations that are predicted well by environmental variables to be left alone, while adjusting over‐ and underpredicted observations based on local factors.     

Importance of climate,forest fires and human population size in the Holocene boreal forest composition change in northern Europe

The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long‐term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. We employ pollen data from lakes, reflecting regional vegetation, and small forest hollows, reflecting local vegetation, from Russia, Finland and Sweden to reconstruct the long‐term forest composition. As potential drivers of the Holocene forest dynamics we consider climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings. We apply the statistical method of variation partitioning to assess the relative importance of these environmental variables on long‐term boreal forest composition. The results show that climate is the main driver of the changes in Holocene boreal forest composition at the regional scale. However, at the local scale the role of climate is relatively small. In general, the importance of forest fires is low both at regional and local scales. The fact that both climate and forest fires explain relatively small proportions of variation in long‐term boreal vegetation in small forest hollow records demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand‐scale forest dynamics. The relative importance of human population size was low in both the prehistorical and the historical time periods. However, this is the first time that this type of data has been used to statistically assess the importance of human population size on boreal vegetation and the spatial representativeness of the data may cause bias to the analysis.     

Calcareous algae and cyanobacteria

Algae is an informal term used to describe a broad group of simple organisms from the plant kingdom. The organisms included within this grouping are aquatic photosynthetic biota with an extensive range of life habits and forms. These organisms range from micron-sized unicellular forms to giant seaweeds and kelps, which can grow to several metres long. Both benthic and planktonic modes of life are known and display a wide variety of life cycles.     

Middle Paleolithic occupation on a Marine Isotope Stage 5 lakeshore in the Nefud Desert,Saudi Arabia

Major hydrological variations associated with glacial and interglacial climates in North Africa and the Levant have been related to Middle Paleolithic occupations and dispersals, but suitable archaeological sites to explore such relationships are rare on the Arabian Peninsula. Here we report the discovery of Middle Paleolithic assemblages in the Nefud Desert of northern Arabia associated with stratified deposits dated to 75,000 years ago. The site is located in close proximity to a substantial relict lake and indicates that Middle Paleolithic hominins penetrated deeply into the Arabian Peninsula to inhabit landscapes vegetated by grasses and some trees. Our discovery supports the hypothesis of range expansion by Middle Paleolithic populations into Arabia during the final humid phase of Marine Isotope Stage 5, when environmental conditions were still favorable.     

The relation of Holocene fluvial terraces to changes in climate and sediment supply,South Fork Payette River,Idaho

Well-preserved Holocene terraces along the South Fork Payette River in central Idaho provide a record of fluvial system behavior in a steep mountain watershed characterized by weathered and erodible Idaho Batholith granitic rocks. Terrace deposit ages were provided by ¹⁴C dating of charcoal fragments and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sandy sediments. Along with pairing of many terrace tread heights, these data indicate episodic downcutting during the Holocene, with a mean incision rate of ～0.9 m/ka from ～7 ka to present. Prior to 7 ka, the river incised to within～3 m of current bankfull, but then aggraded by ～5 m over at least a ～10 km-long reach in an episode centered ～7–6 ka. Aggradation may relate to (1) increased hillslope sediment input from landslides and debris flows in steep tributary basins with abundant grussified granitic bedrock, (2) possible local landslide-damming of the channel, (3) decreased peak discharge, or (4) a combination of these factors. Middle Holocene channel aggradation ca. 7–6 ka corresponds with a period of prolonged and widespread aridity in the northern Rocky Mountains. Between ～5 and 1.3 ka, the river aggraded slightly and then remained stable, forming a prominent terrace tread at ～3 m above current bankfull. Modest aggradation to vertical stability of the South Fork Payette River at the 1.5 m terrace level ～1.0–0.7 ka corresponds with large fire-related debris flows in tributaries during Medieval droughts. Three intervals of incision (～5.5–5 ka, 1.3–1.0 ka and 0.5 ka) correspond with frequent but small fire-related sedimentation events and generally cooler, wetter conditions suggesting increased snowmelt runoff discharges. Other possible drivers of channel incision include an increase in stochastic or climate-modulated large storms and floods and a reduction in delivery of hillslope sediment to the channel. Aggradation is more confidently tied to climate through increases in hillslope sediment delivery and (or) decreased stream power, both likely related to warmer, drier conditions (including high-severity fires) that reduce snowmelt and decrease vegetation cover on steep slopes. Thus, the Holocene terraces of the South Fork Payette River do not reflect simple stepwise incision with periods of vertical stability and lateral migration, but record substantial episodes of aggradation as well. We infer that increases in hillslope erosion and mass movements combined with reduced discharges during prolonged droughts episodically reverse the post-glacial trend of downcutting, in particular during the middle Holocene. The present bedrock-dominated channel implies a strong tendency toward incision in the late Holocene.     

Using monazite and zircon petrochronology to constrain the P–T–t evolution of the middle crust in the Bhutan Himalaya

The growth and dissolution behaviour of accessory phases (and especially those of geochronological interest) in metamorphosed pelites depends on, among others, the bulk composition, the prograde metamorphic evolution and the cooling path. Monazite and zircon are arguably the most commonly used geochronometers for dating felsic metamorphic rocks, yet crystal growth mechanisms as a function of rock composition, pressure and temperature are still incompletely understood. Ages of different growth zones in zircon and monazite in a garnet‐bearing anatectic metapelite from the Greater Himalayan Sequence in NW Bhutan were investigated via a combination of thermodynamic modelling, microtextural data and interpretation of trace‐element chemical ‘fingerprint’ indicators in order to link them to the metamorphic stage at which they crystallized. Differences in the trace‐element composition (HREE, Y, Eu_N/Eu*_N) of different phases were used to track the growth/dissolution of major (e.g. plagioclase, garnet) and accessory phases (e.g. monazite, zircon, xenotime, allanite). Taken together, these data constrain multiple pressure–temperature–time (P–T–t) points from low temperature (<550 °C) to upper amphibolite facies (partial melting, >700 °C) conditions. The results suggest that the metapelite experienced a cryptic early metamorphic stage at c. 38 Ma at <550 °C, ≥0.85 GPa during which plagioclase was probably absent. This was followed by a prolonged high‐T, medium‐pressure (~600 °C, 0.55 GPa) evolution at 35–29 Ma during which the garnet grew, and subsequent partial melting at >690 °C and >18 Ma. Our data confirm that both geochronometers can crystallize independently at different times along the same P–T path and that neither monazite nor zircon necessarily provides timing constraints on ‘peak’ metamorphism. Therefore, collecting monazite and zircon ages as well as major and trace‐element data from major and accessory phases in the same sample is essential for reconstructing the most coherent metamorphic P–T–t evolution and thus for robustly constraining the rates and timescales of metamorphic cycles.     

Assessing the effects of catchment‐scale urban green infrastructure retrofits on hydrograph characteristics

Run‐off from impervious surfaces has pervasive and serious consequences for urban streams, but the detrimental effects of urban stormwater can be lessened by disconnecting impervious surfaces and redirecting run‐off to decentralized green infrastructure. This study used a before–after‐control‐impact design, in which streets served as subcatchments, to quantify hydrologic effectiveness of street‐scale investments in green infrastructure, such as street‐connected bioretention cells, rain gardens and rain barrels. On the two residential treatment streets, voluntary participation resulted in 32.2% and 13.5% of parcels having green infrastructure installed over a 2‐year period. Storm sewer discharge was measured before and after green infrastructure implementation, and peak discharge, total run‐off volume and hydrograph lags were analysed. On the street with smaller lots and lower participation, green infrastructure installation succeeded in reducing peak discharge by up to 33% and total storm run‐off by up to 40%. On the street with larger lots and higher participation, there was no significant reduction in peak or total stormflows, but on this street, contemporaneous street repairs may have offset improvements. On the street with smaller lots, lag times increased following the first phase of green infrastructure construction, in which streetside bioretention cells were built with underdrains. In the second phase, lag times did not change further, because bioretention cells were built without underdrains and water was removed from the system, rather than just delayed. We conclude that voluntary green infrastructure retrofits that include treatment of street run‐off can be effective for substantially reducing stormwater but that small differences in design and construction can be important for determining the level of the benefit. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geophysical surveys to help map buried igneous intrusions,Snowdonia, North Wales,UK

The geology of the Snowdonia National Park in North Wales comprises a mixture of Lower Palaeozoic shallow marine sediments, acidic igneous rocks and basic intrusions of the Welsh Basin that were subsequently deformed during the Caledonian Orogeny. Thin igneous intrusions are challenging to map due to variable surface exposures, their intrusive origin, structural deformation and burial by glacial sediments. This study used a combination of traditional geological techniques, near‐surface geophysical surveys and remote sensing to detect and map a buried dolerite sheet intrusion. Both simple and mathematical analysis of magnetic anomalies and numerical modelling allowed the dolerite position, depths and target widths to be determined. Results showed that calibrated magnetic surveys can characterize buried igneous bodies in such mountainous environments.     

Modelling groundwater/surface water interaction in a managed riparian chalk valley wetland

Understanding hydrological processes in wetlands may be complicated by management practices and complex groundwater/surface water interactions. This is especially true for wetlands underlain by permeable geology, such as chalk. In this study, the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE is used to simulate hydrological processes at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology River Lambourn Observatory, Boxford, Berkshire, UK. This comprises a 10‐ha lowland, chalk valley bottom, riparian wetland designated for its conservation value and scientific interest. Channel management and a compound geology exert important, but to date not completely understood, influences upon hydrological conditions. Model calibration and validation were based upon comparisons of observed and simulated groundwater heads and channel stages over an equally split 20‐month period. Model results are generally consistent with field observations and include short‐term responses to events as well as longer‐term seasonal trends. An intrinsic difficulty in representing compressible, anisotropic soils limited otherwise excellent performance in some areas. Hydrological processes in the wetland are dominated by the interaction between groundwater and surface water. Channel stage provides head boundaries for broad water levels across the wetland, whilst areas of groundwater upwelling control discrete head elevations. A relic surface drainage network confines flooding extents and routes seepage to the main channels. In‐channel macrophyte growth and its management have an acute effect on water levels and the proportional contribution of groundwater and surface water. The implications of model results for management of conservation species and their associated habitats are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.