The effects of natural structure on estimated tropical cyclone surge extremes

The past 12 years have seen significant steps forward in the science and practice of coastal flood analysis. This paper aims to recount and critically assess these advances, while helping identify next steps for the field. This paper then focuses on a key problem, connecting the probabilistic characterization of flood hazards to their physical mechanisms. Our investigation into the effects of natural structure on the probabilities of storm surges shows that several different types of spatial-, temporal-, and process-related organizations affect key assumptions made in many of the methods used to estimate these probabilities. Following a brief introduction to general historical methods, we analyze the two joint probability methods used in most tropical cyclone hazard and risk studies today: the surface response function and Bayesian quadrature. A major difference between these two methods is that the response function creates continuous surfaces, which can be interpolated or extrapolated on a fine scale if necessary, and the Bayesian quadrature optimizes a set of probability masses, which cannot be directly interpolated or extrapolated. Several examples are given here showing significant impacts related to natural structure that should not be neglected in hazard and risk assessment for tropical cyclones including: (1) differences between omnidirectional sampling and directional-dependent sampling of storms in near coastal areas; (2) the impact of surge probability discontinuities on the treatment of epistemic uncertainty; (3) the ability to reduce aleatory uncertainty when sampling over larger spatial domains; and (4) the need to quantify trade-offs between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in long-term stochastic sampling.     

Importance of climate,forest fires and human population size in the Holocene boreal forest composition change in northern Europe

The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long‐term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. We employ pollen data from lakes, reflecting regional vegetation, and small forest hollows, reflecting local vegetation, from Russia, Finland and Sweden to reconstruct the long‐term forest composition. As potential drivers of the Holocene forest dynamics we consider climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings. We apply the statistical method of variation partitioning to assess the relative importance of these environmental variables on long‐term boreal forest composition. The results show that climate is the main driver of the changes in Holocene boreal forest composition at the regional scale. However, at the local scale the role of climate is relatively small. In general, the importance of forest fires is low both at regional and local scales. The fact that both climate and forest fires explain relatively small proportions of variation in long‐term boreal vegetation in small forest hollow records demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand‐scale forest dynamics. The relative importance of human population size was low in both the prehistorical and the historical time periods. However, this is the first time that this type of data has been used to statistically assess the importance of human population size on boreal vegetation and the spatial representativeness of the data may cause bias to the analysis.     

Environmental Correlates of Growth and Stable Isotopes in Intertidal Species Along an Estuarine Fjord

Production and resource use by intertidal taxa were studied in the estuarine fjord of Puget Sound, Washington, USA. Along nearly 100 km, salinity is similar, and intertidal habitat and immersion time were kept consistent, thus allowing a focus on other environmental variables such as temperature and resource availability that could influence growth. Primary producers (ulvoid and fucoid macroalgae) and suspension feeders (oysters and barnacles) were transplanted on three beaches in each of three regions and assessed for individual-level growth, carbon and nitrogen ratios, and stable isotopes. In most transplants, δ¹³C and C/N showed no regional variation but δ¹⁵N was enriched up-estuary. Among environmental variables, chlorophyll a, total suspended solids, and particulate organic matter had small and/or inconsistent regional variation, but temperature was higher up-estuary. For the most intensively studied species (Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas) transplanted four times over 2 years, seasonal and regional variation in growth were best predicted by temperature rather than resource availability. Growth rates continued to increase into Totten Inlet, a shallow finger inlet at the head of Puget Sound. As indicators of environmental conditions, the growth and tissue chemistry of intertidal study taxa affirm that sources and amounts of resources show no strong gradients along this estuarine fjord, and they also support temperature as a key factor for performance, with species-specific responses. Higher temperatures may also have community-level impacts, given prior evidence linking beach temperatures to reduced intertidal diversity and biomass into Puget Sound.     

Trends in Abundance Indices of Fishes in Maryland’s Coastal Bays During 1972–2009

Maryland’s coastal bays provide habitat for juveniles of many commercially and recreationally important species of shellfish and finfish. Since 1972, the Maryland Department of Natural Resources has conducted the Maryland Coastal Bays Trawl and Seine Survey to monitor the populations of key species. The survey has undergone substantial spatial and methodological changes affecting the interpretation of simple indices of abundance. We developed generalized linear models to standardize the indices of abundance of five commonly caught fish species: Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus, weakfish Cynoscion regalis, spot Leiostomus xanthurus, bay anchovy Anchoa mitchilli, and summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus. Density declined significantly since 1972 for menhaden, bay anchovy, and spot in at least one region within the coastal bays. The northern bays had significantly higher densities than the southern bays for all species. Changes in abundance indices of the five species examined were not related to sea grass coverage, temperature, salinity, nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios, and other habitat variables but were likely a result of stock-wide recruitment processes.     

Integrating diverse methods to understand climate-land interactions in East Africa

The questions of how land use change affects climate, and how climate change affects land use, require examination of societal and environmental systems across space at multiple scales, from the global climate to regional vegetative dynamics to local decision making by farmers and herders. It also requires an analysis of causal linkages and feedback loops between systems. These questions and the conceptual approach of the research design of the Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP) are rooted in the classical human-environment research tradition in Geography.This paper discusses a methodological framework to quantify the two-way interactions between land use and regional climate systems, using ongoing work by a team of multi-disciplinary scientists examining climate-land dynamics at multiple scales in East Africa. East Africa is a region that is undergoing rapid land use change, where changes in climate would have serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, and requiring new coping and land use strategies. The research involves exploration of linkages between two important foci of global change research, namely, land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. These linkages are examined through modeling agricultural systems, land use driving forces and patterns, the physical properties of land cover, and the regional climate. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to illustrate a diverse pluralism in scientific discovery.     

Uranium diagenesis in sediments underlying bottom waters with high oxygen content

We measured U in sediments (both pore waters and solid phase) from three locations on the middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) from the eastern margin of the United States: a northern location on the continental shelf off Massachusetts (OC426, 75 m water depth), and two southern locations off North Carolina (EN433-1, 647 m water depth and EN433-2, 2648 m water depth). These sediments underlie high oxygen bottom waters (250-270 μM), but become reducing below the sediment-water interface due to the relatively high organic carbon oxidation rates in sediments (EN433-1: 212 μmol C/cm²/y; OC426: 120 ± 10 μmol C/cm²/y; EN433-2: 33 μmol C/cm²/y). Pore water oxygen goes to zero by 1.4-1.5 cm at EN433-1 and OC426 and slightly deeper oxygen penetration depths were measured at EN433-2 (∼4 cm).All of the pore water profiles show removal of U from pore waters. Calculated pore water fluxes are greatest at EN433-1 (0.66 ± 0.08 nmol/cm²/y) and less at EN433-2 and OC426 (0.24 ± 0.05 and 0.13 ± 0.05 nmol/cm²/y, respectively). Solid phase profiles show authigenic U enrichment in sediments from all three locations. The average authigenic U concentrations are greater at EN433-1 and OC426 (5.8 ± 0.7 nmol/g and 5.4 ± 0.2 nmol/g, respectively) relative to EN433-2 (4.1 ± 0.8 nmol/g). This progression is consistent with their relative ordering of ‘reduction intensity’, with greatest reducing conditions in sediments from EN433-1, less at OC426 and least at EN433-2. The authigenic U accumulation rate is largest at EN433-1 (0.47 ± 0.05 nmol/cm²/y), but the average among the three sites on the MAB is ∼0.2 nmol/cm²/y. Pore water profiles suggest diffusive fluxes across the sediment-water interface that are 1.4-1.7 times greater than authigenic accumulation rates at EN433-1 and EN433-2. These differences are consistent with oxidation and loss of U from the solid phase via irrigation and/or bioturbation, which may compromise the sequestration of U in continental margin sediments that underlie bottom waters with high oxygen concentrations.Previous literature compilations that include data exclusively from locations where [O₂]_bw < 150 μM suggest compelling correlations between authigenic U accumulation and organic carbon flux to sediments or organic carbon burial rate. Sediments that underlie waters with high [O₂]_bw have lower authigenic U accumulation rates than would be predicted from relationships developed from results that include locations where [O₂]_bw < 150 μM.     

Paleowind velocity and paleocurrents of pluvial Lake Manly,Death Valley,USA

Pluvial lake deposits are found throughout western North America and are frequently used to reconstruct regional paleoclimate. In Death Valley, California, USA, we apply the beach particle technique (BPT) of Adams (2003), Sedimentology, 50, 565–577 and Adams (2004), Sedimentology, 51, 671–673 to Lake Manly deposits at the Beatty Junction Bar Complex (BJBC), Desolation Canyon, and Manly Terraces and calculate paleowind velocities of 14–27 m/s. These wind velocities are within the range of present-day wind velocities recorded in the surrounding area. Sedimentary structures and clast provenance at Desolation Canyon and the Manly Terraces indicate sediment transport from north to south. Lake level, based on the elevation of constructional features, indicates that the hill west of the BJBC was an island and that the BJBC spits formed during simple lake regression. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that the present wind regime (velocity and direction) formed the pluvial Lake Manly features.     

Environmental Monitoring and Peat Assessment Using Multivariate Analysis of Regional-Scale Geochemical Data

A compositional multivariate approach was used to analyse regional-scale soil geochemical data obtained as part of the Tellus Project generated by the Geological Survey of Northern Ireland. The multi-element total concentration data presented comprise X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyses of 6862 rural soil samples collected at 20-cm depth on a non-aligned grid at one site per \(2\,\hbox {km}^{2}\). Censored data were imputed using published detection limits. Each soil sample site was assigned to the regional geology map, resulting in spatial data for one categorical variable and 35 continuous variables comprised of individual and amalgamated elements. This paper examines the extent to which soil geochemistry reflects the underlying geology or superficial deposits. Since the soil geochemistry is compositional, log-ratios were computed to adequately evaluate the data using multivariate statistical methods. Principal component analysis (PCA) and minimum/maximum autocorrelation factors (MAF) were used to carry out linear discriminant analysis (LDA) as a means to discover and validate processes related to the geologic assemblages coded as age bracket. Peat cover was introduced as an additional category to measure the ability to predict and monitor fragile ecosystems. Overall prediction accuracies for the age bracket categories were 68.4 % using PCA and 74.7 % using MAF. With inclusion of peat, the accuracy for LDA classification decreased to 65.0 and 69.9 %, respectively. The increase in misclassification due to the presence of peat may reflect degradation of peat-covered areas since the creation of superficial deposit classification.