Hog Daddy and the Walls of Steel: Catch Shares and Ecosystem Change in the New England Groundfishery

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration implemented market-based fishery management in the New England groundfishery as catch shares, controlling aggregate harvests through tradable annual catch quotas allocated to fishing groups called sectors. Policy supporters assert that resulting markets raise conservation incentives. In compliance with the Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, species assessments permit catch shares to replace more spatially and temporally specific constraints on fishing gear, time, areas, and daily harvest limits. Qualitative evidence from field interviews and participant observation questions the efficacy of catch shares. Fishing industry members observe that increased presence of large trawl vessels in previously protected areas damages fish subpopulations and benthic habitat. Regulatory bioeconomic models fail to consider these lay observations. The consequent inability of quota markets to recognize the materiality of human–environment relationships at the spatiotemporal scales of fishing activity, and to internalize associated externalities, may have devastating consequences for the fishery.     

Early Detection of Terrorism Outbreaks Using Prospective Space–Time Scan Statistics

Terrorism is a complex phenomenon with high uncertainty involving a myriad of dynamic known and unknown factors. It is and will remain a challenge to predict or detect terrorism outbreaks at an early stage. This research presents an alternative approach for modeling terrorism activity, one that monitors and detects space–time clusters of terrorist incidents using prospective space–time scan statistics. Such clusters provide indicators of potential outbreaks of terrorist incidents. To evaluate the effectiveness of the approach, we analyze the terrorist incidents in the Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism's (START) Global Terrorism Database (GTD) from 1998 to 2004. Clusters of terrorist events are detected at each time stamp and life trajectories of these clusters are constructed based on their space–time relationship to each other. Through the life trajectories and trends of clusters, we demonstrate how space–time scan statistics detect terrorism outbreaks at an early stage.     

Stable carbon isotopes (δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C) of total organic carbon and long-chain <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-alkanes as proxies for climate and environmental change in a sediment core from Lake Petén-Itzá, Guatemala

Sediment core PI-6 from Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala, possesses an ~85-ka record of climate and environmental change from lowland Central America. Variations in sediment lithology suggest large and abrupt changes in precipitation during the last glacial and deglacial periods, and into the early Holocene. We measured stable carbon isotope ratios of total organic carbon and long-chain n-alkanes from the core, the latter representing a largely allochthonous (terrestrial) source of organic matter, to reveal past shifts in the relative proportion of C₃–C₄ terrestrial biomass. We sought to test whether stable carbon isotope results were consistent with other paleoclimate proxies measured in the PI-6 core, and if extraction and isotope analysis of n-alkanes is warranted. The largest δ¹³C variations are associated with Heinrich Events. Carbon isotope values in sediments deposited during the last glacial maximum indicate moderate precipitation with little fluctuation. The deglacial was a period of pronounced climate variability, e.g. a relatively warm and moist Bølling–Allerød, but a cool and dry Younger Dryas. Arid periods of the deglacial were inferred from samples with high δ¹³C values in total organic carbon, which reflect times of greater proportions of C₄ plants. These inferences are supported by stable isotope measurements on ostracod shells and relative abundance of grass pollen from the same depths in core PI-6. Similar trends in carbon stable isotopes measured on bulk organic carbon and n-alkanes suggest that carbon isotope measures on bulk organic carbon in sediments from this lake are sufficient to infer past climate-driven shifts in local vegetation.     

Modeling regional landslide susceptibility using dynamic soil moisture profiles

A landslide susceptibility mapping study was performed using dynamic hillslope hydrology. The modified infinite slope stability model that directly includes vadose zone soil moisture (SM) was applied at Cleveland Corral, California, US and Krishnabhir, Dhading, Nepal. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) model simulated vadose zone soil moisture and the wetness index hydrologic model simulated groundwater (GW). The GW model predictions had a 75% NASH-Sutcliffe efficiency when compared to California’s in-situ GW measurements. The model performed best during the wet season. Using predicted GW and VIC-3L vadose zone SM, the developed landslide susceptibility maps showed very good agreement with mapped landslides at each study region. Previous quasi-dynamic model predictions of Nepal’s hazardous areas during extreme rainfall events were enhanced to improve the spatial characterization and provide the timing of hazardous conditions.     

Watershed-scale vegetation,water quantity,and water quality responses to wildfire in the southern Appalachian mountain region,United States

Wildfires are landscape scale disturbances that can significantly affect hydrologic processes such as runoff generation and sediment and nutrient transport to streams. In Fall 2016, multiple large drought-related wildfires burned forests across the southern Appalachian Mountains. Immediately after the fires, we identified and instrumented eight 28.4–344 ha watersheds (four burned and four unburned) to measure vegetation, soil, water quantity, and water quality responses over the following two years. Within burned watersheds, plots varied in burn severity with up to 100% tree mortality and soil O-horizon loss. Watershed scale high burn severity extent ranged from 5% to 65% of total watershed area. Water quantity and quality responses among burned watersheds were closely related to the high burn severity extent. Total water yield (Q) was up to 39% greater in burned watersheds than unburned reference watersheds. Total suspended solids (TSS) concentration during storm events were up to 168 times greater in samples collected from the most severely burned watershed than from a corresponding unburned reference watershed, suggesting that there was elevated risk of localized erosion and sedimentation of streams. NO₃-N concentration, export, and concentration dependence on streamflow were greater in burned watersheds and increased with increasing high burn severity extent. Mean NO₃-N concentration in the most severely burned watershed increased from 0.087 mg L⁻¹ in the first year to 0.363 mg L⁻¹ (+317%) in the second year. These results suggest that the 2016 wildfires degraded forest condition, increased Q, and had negative effects on water quality particularly during storm events.     

Spatial pattern of localized disturbance along a Southeastern salt marsh tidal creek

Geomorphology may be an important predictor of vegetation pattern in systems where suceptibility to disturbance is unevenly distributed across the landscape. Salt marsh communities exhibit spatial pattern in vegetation at a variety of spatial scales. In coastal Georgia, the low marsh is a virtual monoculture ofSpartina alterniflora interspersed with patches of species that are more typical of the high marsh. These localized disturbances are most likely created by wrack mats, mats of dead vegetation which can compact and smother underlying vegetation creating bare patches for colonization by high marsh species. We investigated the spatial pattern of disturbed patches along a 2 km section of Dean Creek, a tidal creek at the southwestern end of Sapelo Island, Georgia, U.S. We used a discriminant model to explore the relationship between tidal creek morphology (e.g., the presence of drainage channels and creek bends) and the spatial distribution of disturbed patches. The model predicted vegetation pattern along the creek with relatively high accuracy (>70%). Areas where water movement is slowed or multidirectional (e.g., along creek bends and near drainage channels) were most susceptible to disturbance. Our findings suggest an important functional linkage between geomorphology and vegetation pattern in salt marsh communities.