A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 2: Quantification of spatial attributes of response functions

In response to the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, surge risk assessment approaches have been re-evaluated to develop more rapid, reliable methods for predicting the risk associated with extreme hurricanes. Here, the development of dimensionless surge response functions relating surge to hurricane meteorological parameters is presented. Such response functions present an opportunity to maximize surge data usage and to improve statistical estimates of surge probability by providing a means for defining continuous probability density functions. A numerical modeling investigation was carried out for the Texas, USA coastline to develop physical scaling laws relating storm surge response with hurricane parameters including storm size, intensity, and track. It will be shown that these scaling laws successfully estimate the surge response at any arbitrary location for any arbitrary storm track within the study region. Such a prediction methodology has the potential to decrease numerical computation requirements by 75% for hurricane risk assessment studies.     

Space weathering of small Koronis family members

The space weathering process and its implications for the relationships between S- and Q-type asteroids and ordinary chondrite meteorites is an often debated topic in asteroid science. Q-type asteroids have been shown to display the best spectral match to ordinary chondrites (McFadden, L.A., Gaffey, M.J., McCord, T.B. [1985]. Science 229, 160–163). While the Q-types and ordinary chondrites share some spectral features with S-type asteroids, the S-types have significantly redder spectral slopes than the Q-types in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. This reddening of spectral slope is attributed to the effects of space weathering on the observed surface composition. The analysis by Binzel et al. (Binzel, R.P., Rivkin, A.S., Stuart, J.S., Harris, A.W., Bus, S.J., Burbine, T.H. [2004]. Icarus 170, 259–294) provided a missing link between the Q- and S-type bodies in near-Earth space by showing a reddening of spectral slope in objects from 0.1 to 5 km that corresponded to a transition from Q-type to S-type asteroid spectra, implying that size, and therefore surface age, is related to the relationship between S- and Q-types. The existence of Q-type asteroids in the main-belt was not confirmed until Mothé-Diniz and Nesvorny (Mothé-Diniz, T., Nesvorny, D. [2008]. Astron. Astrophys. 486, L9–L12) found them in young S-type clusters. The young age of these families suggest that the unweathered surface could date to the formation of the family. This leads to the question of whether older S-type main-belt families can contain Q-type objects and display evidence of a transition from Q- to S-type. To answer this question we have carried out a photometric survey of the Koronis family using the Kitt Peak 2.1 m telescope. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the effects of the space weathering process on potentially ordinary chondrite-like bodies within a population of identical initial conditions. We find a trend in spectral slope for objects 1–5 km that shows the transition from Q- to S-type in the main-belt. This data set will prove crucial to our understanding of the space weathering process and its relevant timescales.     

Indicators of sediment and biotic mercury contamination in a southern New England estuary

Total mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) were analyzed in near surface sediments (0-2 cm) and biota (zooplankton, macro-invertebrates, finfish) collected from Narragansett Bay (Rhode Island/Massachusetts, USA) and adjacent embayments and tidal rivers. Spatial patterns in sediment contamination were governed by the high affinity of Hg for total organic carbon (TOC). Sediment MeHg and percent MeHg were also inversely related to summer bottom water dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, presumably due to the increased activity of methylating bacteria. For biota, Hg accumulation was influenced by inter-specific habitat preferences and trophic structure, and sediments with high TOC and percent silt-clay composition limited mercury bioavailability. Moreover, hypoxic bottom water limited Hg bioaccumulation, which is possibly mediated by a reduction in biotic foraging, and thus, dietary uptake of mercury. Finally, most biota demonstrated a significant positive relationship between tissue and TOC-normalized sediment Hg, but relationships were much weaker or absent for sediment MeHg. These results have important implications for the utility of estuarine biota as subjects for mercury monitoring programs.     

Eddy covariance imaging of diffuse volcanic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions at Mammoth Mountain,CA, USA

Use of eddy covariance (EC) techniques to map the spatial distribution of diffuse volcanic CO₂ fluxes and quantify CO₂ emission rate was tested at the Horseshoe Lake tree-kill area on Mammoth Mountain, California, USA. EC measurements of CO₂ flux were made during September–October 2010 and ranged from 85 to 1,766 g m⁻² day⁻¹. Comparative maps of soil CO₂ flux were simulated and CO₂ emission rates estimated from three accumulation chamber (AC) CO₂ flux surveys. Least-squares inversion of measured eddy covariance CO₂ fluxes and corresponding modeled source weight functions recovered 58–77% of the CO₂ emission rates estimated based on simulated AC soil CO₂ fluxes. Spatial distributions of modeled surface CO₂ fluxes based on EC and AC observations showed moderate to good correspondence (R ² = 0.36 to 0.70). Results provide a framework for automated monitoring of volcanic CO₂ emissions over relatively large areas.     

Examining the effects of climate change, acidic deposition, and copper sulphate poisoning on long-term changes in cladoceran assemblages

We analyzed cladoceran remains in dated sediment cores from four lakes in Nova Scotia, Canada, to assess the potential effects of climate warming, acidic deposition, and a major fish kill caused by copper sulphate poisoning on assemblage composition and Bosmina size structure. In three of the four lakes, we observed a decline in Daphnia in the early 20th century that might be indicative of limnological changes in response to acidic deposition or increased fish predation. The appearance of the softwater zooplankter Holopedium glacialis in Hirtle Lake ~1995 might be linked to declining aqueous [Ca], a consequence of acidic deposition. No shifts in subfossil Cladocera were identified in this study that could be linked to climate warming. The application of copper sulphate as a fish poison to Trefry Lake (the lake was later re-stocked with trout fry) in 1938 resulted in dramatic and persistent changes in the cladoceran assemblage, where littoral Cladocera declined in relative abundance and small, pelagic Bosmina increased. In addition, we observed a reduction in the mean body size of Bosmina in post-1938 sediments, suggesting that planktivorous fish abundance increased and/or predatory copepods and other invertebrate predators decreased. No recovery of Cladocera to pre-disturbance conditions was observed. Overall, our data suggest that acidic deposition and calcium decline may have had a modest impact on the cladoceran communities in these lakes, but the effects of copper sulphate poisoning on the food web in Trefry Lake were widespread, and still persist over 70?years following this intervention.     

Extracting sea level residual in tidally dominated estuarine environments

Sea level comprises a mean level, tidal elevation and a residual elevation. Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. However, different methods to extract deviations in water level (residuals) from modelled and observed elevation can give different results. The Dee Estuary, northwest England is a macrotidal estuary that undergoes periodic stratification. It is used here to demonstrate methods to extract the residual water level in response to the following interactive processes: tidal, river-induced stratification and flow, meteorology and waves. Using modelling techniques, the interaction and contribution of different physical processes are investigated. Classical harmonic tidal analysis, model simulations and filtering techniques have been used to “de-tide” the total elevation for short-term (approximately month long) records. Each technique gives a different result highlighting the need to select the correct method for a required study. Analysis of the residual components demonstrates that all processes inducing residuals interact with the tide generating a semi-diurnal residual component. It is suggested that modelling methods enable the full effect of tidal interaction to remain in the residual, whilst harmonic tidal analysis (partly) modify and filtering methods (fully) remove this component of the residual. The analysis methods presented and their influences on the resultant residual are applicable to other study sites. However, when applied specifically to the mouth of the Dee Estuary, the external surge is found to be the main contributor to the total residual, whilst local wind and stratification effects are of secondary importance.     

Retreating to nature: rethinking 'therapeutic landscapes'

There is a long history of removing oneself from 'society' in order to recuperate or repair. This paper considers a yoga and massage retreat in Southern Spain, and what opportunities this retreat experience might offer for recuperation and the creation of healthy bodies. The paper positions 'nature' as an active participant, and as 'enrolled' in the experiences of the retreat as a 'therapeutic landscape', and questions how and what particular aspects of yoga practice (in intimate relation with place) give rise to therapeutic experiences.     

The effects of natural structure on estimated tropical cyclone surge extremes

The past 12 years have seen significant steps forward in the science and practice of coastal flood analysis. This paper aims to recount and critically assess these advances, while helping identify next steps for the field. This paper then focuses on a key problem, connecting the probabilistic characterization of flood hazards to their physical mechanisms. Our investigation into the effects of natural structure on the probabilities of storm surges shows that several different types of spatial-, temporal-, and process-related organizations affect key assumptions made in many of the methods used to estimate these probabilities. Following a brief introduction to general historical methods, we analyze the two joint probability methods used in most tropical cyclone hazard and risk studies today: the surface response function and Bayesian quadrature. A major difference between these two methods is that the response function creates continuous surfaces, which can be interpolated or extrapolated on a fine scale if necessary, and the Bayesian quadrature optimizes a set of probability masses, which cannot be directly interpolated or extrapolated. Several examples are given here showing significant impacts related to natural structure that should not be neglected in hazard and risk assessment for tropical cyclones including: (1) differences between omnidirectional sampling and directional-dependent sampling of storms in near coastal areas; (2) the impact of surge probability discontinuities on the treatment of epistemic uncertainty; (3) the ability to reduce aleatory uncertainty when sampling over larger spatial domains; and (4) the need to quantify trade-offs between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in long-term stochastic sampling.     

A hurricane surge risk assessment framework using the joint probability method and surge response functions

Hurricane surge events have caused devastating damage in active-hurricane areas all over the world. The ability to predict surge elevations and to use this information for damage estimation is fundamental for saving lives and protecting property. In this study, we developed a framework for evaluating hurricane flood risk and identifying areas that are more prone to them. The approach is based on the joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) using surge response functions (SRFs) (JPM-OS-SRF). Derived from a discrete set of high-fidelity storm surge simulations, SRFs are non-dimensional, physics-based empirical equations with an algebraic form, used to rapidly estimate surge as a function of hurricane parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location). The advantage of an SRF-based approach is that a continuum of storm scenarios can be efficiently evaluated and used to estimate continuous probability density functions for surge extremes, producing more statistically stable surge hazard assessments without adding measurably to epistemic uncertainty. SRFs were developed along the coastline and then used to estimate maximum surge elevations with respect to a set of hurricane parameters. Integrating information such as ground elevation, property value and population with the JPM-OS-SRF allows quantification of storm surge-induced hazard impacts over the continuum of storm possibilities, yielding a framework to create the following risk-based products, which can be used to assist in hurricane hazard management and decision making: (1) expected annual loss maps; (2) flood damage versus return period relationships; and (3) affected business (e.g., number of business, number of employees) versus return period relationships. By employing several simplifying assumptions, the framework is demonstrated at three northern Gulf of Mexico study sites exhibiting similar surge hazard exposure. The framework results reveal Gulfport, MS, USA is at relatively more risk of economic loss than Corpus Christi, TX, USA, and Panama City, FL, USA. Note that economic processes are complex and very interrelated to most other human activities. Our intention here is to present a methodology to quantify the flood damage (i.e., infrastructure economic loss, number of businesses affected, number of employees in these affected businesses and sales volume in these affected businesses) but not to discuss the complex interactions of these damages with other economic activities and recovery plans.

     

Using δN values in algal tissue to map locations and potential sources of anthropogenic nutrient inputs on the island of Maui, Hawai‘i, USA

Macroalgal blooms of Hypnea musciformis and Ulvafasciata in coastal waters of Maui only occur in areas of substantial anthropogenic nutrient input, sources of which include wastewater effluent via injection wells, leaking cesspools and agricultural fertilizers. Algal δ¹⁵N signatures were used to map anthropogenic nitrogen through coastal surveys (island-wide and fine-scale) and algal deployments along nearshore and offshore gradients. Algal δ¹⁵N values of 9.8‰ and 2.0-3.5‰ in Waiehu and across the north-central coast, respectively, suggest that cesspool and agricultural nitrogen reached the respective adjacent coastlines. Effluent was detected in areas proximal to the Wastewater Reclamation Facilities (WWRF) operating Class V injection wells in Lahaina, Kihei and Kahului through elevated algal δ¹⁵N values (17.8-50.1‰). From 1997 to 2008, the three WWRFs injected an estimated total volume of 193 million cubic meters (51 billion gallons) of effluent with a nitrogen mass of 1.74 million kilograms (3.84 million pounds).