Flood‐loss modelling for assessing impacts of flood‐frequency adjustment,Middle Mississippi River,USA

This study modelled flood losses (economic damages) along the Middle Mississippi River (MMR) (1) using current US government estimates of flow frequencies and (2) using frequencies based on the original, unaltered discharge measurements. The official flood frequencies were quantified in the Upper Mississippi River System Flow Frequency Study (UMRSFFS), but as a last step in that study, early discharges along the MMR were reduced by up to 54% to reflect a purported bias in early measurements. Subsequently, early discharge measurements were rigorously tested, and no such bias was found. Here, flood damages were quantified using a combination of one‐dimensional hydraulic modelling and flood‐loss modelling. For all recurrence intervals, damages were much less using the UMRSFFS flow frequencies compared with the frequencies based on the original discharge measurements, with differences ranging up to 79% (100‐year event) and $2.9bn (200‐year event). Annualized losses in the study area based on the UMRSFFS frequencies were just $41.6m versus $125.6m using the raw frequencies (an underestimation of 67%). These totals do not include flood losses elsewhere along the MMR, including in metropolitan St Louis. In summary, a seemingly small methodological adjustment – in this case, a single hidden adjustment, not documented anywhere within the UMRSFFS – can have dramatic societal impacts in terms of underestimation of flood probabilities and flood risk. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relative contributions of alpine and subalpine ecosystems to the water balance of a mountainous,headwater catchment

Climate change is affecting the hydrology of high‐elevation mountain ecosystems, with implications for ecosystem functioning and water availability to downstream populations. We directly and continuously measured precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) from both subalpine forest and alpine tundra portions of a single catchment, as well as discharge fluxes at the catchment outlet, to quantify the water balance of a mountainous, headwater catchment in Colorado, USA. Between 2008 and 2012, the water balance closure averaged 90% annually, and the catchment ET was the largest water output at 66% of precipitation. Alpine ET was greatest during the winter, in part because of sublimation from blowing snow, which contributed from 27% to 48% of the alpine, and 6% to 9% of the catchment water balance, respectively. The subalpine ET peaked in summer. Alpine areas generated the majority of the catchment discharge, despite covering only 31% of the catchment area. Although the average annual alpine runoff efficiency (discharge/precipitation; 40%) was greater than the subalpine runoff efficiency (19%), the subalpine runoff efficiency was more sensitive to changes in precipitation. Inter‐annual analysis of the evaporative and dryness indices revealed persistent moisture limitations at the catchment scale, although the alpine alternated between energy‐limited and water‐limited states in wet and dry years. Each ecosystem generally over‐generated discharge relative to that expected from a Budyko‐type model. The alpine and catchment water yields were relatively unaffected by annual meteorological variability, but this interpretation was dependent on the method used to quantify potential ET. Our results indicate that correctly accounting for dissimilar hydrological cycling above and below alpine treeline is critical to quantify the water balance of high‐elevation mountain catchments over periods of meteorological variability. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Permeability of JSC-1A: A lunar soil simulant

The permeability of lunar soil simulant, JSC-1A, is measured over a range of bulk densities from 1550 to 2000 kg m⁻³. The corresponding viscous flow permeability is 1 × 10⁻¹² m² to 6.1 × 10⁻¹² m² for this bulk density range. Implications of these values on the contamination of regolith by rockets, on barrier/enhancement to bulk flow of ice, and on cratering are discussed. Although the particle size and shape distribution of the JSC-1A are extremely wide, the permeability measurements agree surprisingly well with the Carman-Kozeny equation. The results provide evidence that the Carman-Kozeny model could be applicable to other naturally occurring soils if effective soil properties are considered.     

Laboratory experiments of tsunami run-up and withdrawal in patchy coastal forest on a steep beach

Laboratory experiments were carried out to study tsunami flow dynamics in the presence of patchy macro-roughness, representing coastal forest, on a 1:10 steep beach. The experimental setup included four cross-shore rows of roughness patches affixed to the dry beach in a staggered array, such that 12 % of the staggered array region had higher roughness. The flow field during run-up and withdrawal was quantified using point measurements of velocity and flow depth at 20 locations, while high-resolution video was used to track bore position during run-up. Data analysis revealed that while inundated area was marginally impacted when patchy roughness was present, flow depths and flow force were, respectively, increased by more than 40 and 30 % in some areas within the patch array; a decrease in flow force was also observed in some areas. Alongshore variation in flow depth, induced by the roughness patches, was most pronounced during withdrawal. These findings suggest that patchy macro-roughness, like that created by coastal forest, will simultaneously lead to increased protection in some areas and decreased protection in others.     

Evaluation of the importance of clay confining units on groundwater flow in alluvial basins using solute and isotope tracers: the case of Middle San Pedro Basin in southeastern Arizona (USA)

As groundwater becomes an increasingly important water resource worldwide, it is essential to understand how local geology affects groundwater quality, flowpaths and residence times. This study utilized multiple tracers to improve conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Middle San Pedro Basin in southeastern Arizona (USA) by determining recharge areas, compartmentalization of water sources, flowpaths and residence times. Ninety-five groundwater and surface-water samples were analyzed for major ion chemistry (water type and Ca/Sr ratios) and stable (¹⁸O, ²H, ¹³C) and radiogenic (³H, ¹⁴C) isotopes, and resulting data were used in conjunction with hydrogeologic information (e.g. hydraulic head and hydrostratigraphy). Results show that recent recharge (<60 years) has occurred within mountain systems along the basin margins and in shallow floodplain aquifers adjacent to the San Pedro River. Groundwater in the lower basin fill aquifer (semi confined) was recharged at high elevation in the fractured bedrock and has been extensively modified by water-rock reactions (increasing F and Sr, decreasing ¹⁴C) over long timescales (up to 35,000 years BP). Distinct solute and isotope geochemistries between the lower and upper basin fill aquifers show the importance of a clay confining unit on groundwater flow in the basin, which minimizes vertical groundwater movement.     

Impacts of Climate-Related Drivers on the Benthic Nutrient Filter in a Shallow Photic Estuary

In shallow photic systems, the benthic filter, including microphytobenthos and denitrifiers, is important in preventing or reducing release of remineralized NH₄ ⁺ to the water column. Its effectiveness can be impacted by climate-related drivers, including temperature and storminess, which by increasing wind and freshwater delivery can resuspend sediment, reduce salinity and deliver nutrients, total suspended solids, and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) to coastal systems. Increases in temperature and freshwater delivery may initiate a cascade of responses affecting benthic metabolism with impacts on sediment properties, which in turn regulate nitrogen cycling processes that either sequester (via microphytobenthos), remove (via denitrification), or increase sediment nitrogen (via remineralization, nitrogen fixation, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium). We conducted a seasonal study at shallow stations to assess the effects of freshwater inflow, temperature, wind, light, and CDOM on sediment properties, benthic metabolism, nitrogen cycling processes, and the effectiveness of the benthic filter. We also conducted a depth study to constrain seasonally varying parameters such as temperature to better assess the effects of light availability and water depth on benthic processes. Based on relationships observed between climatic drivers and response variables, we predict a reduction in the effectiveness of the benthic filter over the long term with feedbacks that will increase effluxes of N to the water column with the potential to contribute to system eutrophication. This may push shallow systems past a tipping point where trophic status moves from net autotrophy toward net heterotrophy, with new baselines characterized by degraded water quality.     

Long-term biological effects of petroleum residues on fiddler crabs in salt marshes

In September 1969, the Florida barge spilled 700,000L of No. 2 fuel oil into the salt marsh sediments of Wild Harbor (Buzzards Bay, MA). Today the aboveground environment appears unaffected, but a substantial amount of moderately degraded petroleum still remains 8-20cm below the surface. The salt marsh fiddler crabs, Uca pugnax, burrow into the sediments at depths of 5-25cm, and are chronically exposed to the spilled oil. Behavioral studies conducted with U. pugnax from Wild Harbor and a control site, Great Sippewissett marsh, found that crabs exposed to the oil avoided burrowing into oiled layers, suffered delayed escape responses, lowered feeding rates, and achieved lower densities. The oil residues are therefore biologically active and affect U. pugnax populations. Our results add new knowledge about long-term consequences of spilled oil, a dimension that should be included when assessing oil-impacted areas and developing management plans designed to restore, rehabilitate, or replace impacted areas.     

Using hyperspectral plant signatures for CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> leak detection during the 2008 ZERT CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> sequestration field experiment in Bozeman,Montana

Hyperspectral plant signatures can be used as a short-term, as well as long-term (100-year timescale) monitoring technique to verify that CO₂ sequestration fields have not been compromised. An influx of CO₂ gas into the soil can stress vegetation, which causes changes in the visible to near-infrared reflectance spectral signature of the vegetation. For 29 days, beginning on July 9, 2008, pure carbon dioxide gas was released through a 100-m long horizontal injection well, at a flow rate of 300 kg day⁻¹. Spectral signatures were recorded almost daily from an unmown patch of plants over the injection with a “FieldSpec Pro” spectrometer by Analytical Spectral Devices, Inc. Measurements were taken both inside and outside of the CO₂ leak zone to normalize observations for other environmental factors affecting the plants. Four to five days after the injection began, stress was observed in the spectral signatures of plants within 1 m of the well. After approximately 10 days, moderate to high amounts of stress were measured out to 2.5 m from the well. This spatial distribution corresponded to areas of high CO₂ flux from the injection. Airborne hyperspectral imagery, acquired by Resonon, Inc. of Bozeman, MT using their hyperspectral camera, also showed the same pattern of plant stress. Spectral signatures of the plants were also compared to the CO₂ concentrations in the soil, which indicated that the lower limit of soil CO₂ needed to stress vegetation is between 4 and 8% by volume.