Incorporating movement in species distribution models: how do simulations of dispersal affect the accuracy and uncertainty of projections?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are one of the most important GIScience research areas in biogeography and are the primary means by which the potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions and ranges are investigated. Dispersal is an important ecological process for species responding to changing climates, however, SDMs and their subsequent spatial products rarely reflect accessibility to any future suitable environment. Dispersal-related movement can be confounded by factors that vary across landscapes and climates, as well as within and among species, and it has therefore remained difficult to parametrise in SDMs. Here we compared 20 models that have previously been used (or have the potential to be used) to represent dispersal processes in SDM to predict future range shifts in response to climate change. We assessed the different dispersal models in terms of their accuracy at predicting future distributions, as well as the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Atlas data for 50 bird species from 1988 to 1991 in Great Britain were treated as base distributions (t₁), with the species–environment relationships extrapolated (using three commonly used statistical methods) to 2008–2011 (t₂). Dispersal (in the form of the 20 different models) was simulated from the base distribution (t₁) to 2008–2011 (t₂). The results were then combined and used to identify locations that were both abiotically suitable (obtained from the statistical methods) and accessible (obtained from the dispersal models). The accuracy of these coupled projections was assessed with the 2008–2011 atlas data (the observed t₂ distribution). There was substantial variation in the accuracy of the different dispersal models, and in general, the more restrictive dispersal models (e.g. fixed rate dispersal) resulted in lower accuracy for the metrics which reward correct prediction of presences. Ensemble models of the dispersal methods (generated by combining multiple projection outcomes) were created for each species, and a new Ensemble Agreement Index (EAI), which ranges from 0 (no agreement among models) to 1 (full agreement among models) was developed to quantify uncertainty among the projections. EAI values ranged from 0.634 (some areas of disagreement and therefore medium uncertainty among dispersal models) to 0.999 (large areas of agreement and low uncertainty among dispersal models). The results of this research highlight the importance of incorporating dispersal and also illustrate that the method with which dispersal is simulated greatly impacts the projected future distribution. This has important implications for studies aimed at predicting the effects of changing environmental conditions on species’ distributions.     

Mineralogy and origin of rhizoliths on the margins of saline,alkaline Lake Bogoria,Kenya Rift Valley

A wide range of rhizoliths occurs around the margins of Lake Bogoria, Kenya. These include root casts, moulds, tubules, rhizocretions, and permineralised root systems. These rhizoliths are variably composed of opaline silica, calcite, zeolites (mainly analcime), fluorite, and possibly fluorapatite, either alone or in combinations. Some rhizoliths are infilled moulds with detrital silicate grains. Most rhizoliths are in situ, showing both vertical and horizontal orientations. Reworked rhizoliths have been concentrated locally to form dense rhizolites.Hot-spring fluids, concentrated by evapotranspiration and capillary evaporation, have provided most of the silica for the permineralisation of the plant tissues. Precipitation involved the growth of silica nanospheres and microspheres that coalesced into homogeneous masses. Calcite rhizoliths formed following evaporative concentration, evapotranspiration, and (or) CO₂ degassing of Ca-bearing runoff water that infiltrated the sediment, or by mixing of runoff with saline, alkaline groundwater. Fluorite precipitated in areas where mixing of hot-spring and meteoric waters occurred, or possibly where hot-spring fluids came into contact with pre-existing calcite. Zeolitic rhizoliths formed during a prolonged period of aridity, when capillary rise and evaporative pumping brought saline, alkaline waters into contact with detrital silicate minerals around roots.     

Assessment of lightning-related fatality and injury risk in Canada

This article summarizes research completed to assess the risk of lightning-related injuries and fatalities in Canada. Although lightning mortality has declined significantly over the past century, it remains a common meteorological hazard that regularly kills and injures. Based on an analysis of media reports, vital statistics, hospital admission and emergency room visit records, and fire loss data, the authors estimate that on average about 9–10 lightning-related deaths and 92–164 injuries occur each year in Canada. The distribution of casualties reflects current provincial population and cloud-to-ground lightning densities. Consistent with similar studies in other developed nations, most lightning-related fatalities and injuries in Canada occur during the June-August summer season, coincident with peak lightning, and during the Thursday-Saturday period, most likely related to higher rates of participation in outdoor activities. The majority of victims are male, less than 46 years old, and engaged in outdoor recreational activities when injured or killed in a lightning incident. Media reports used in the study were found to underestimate both lightning mortality (36%) and morbidity (20–600%).

Natural and anthropogenic forcing of Holocene lake ecosystem development at Lake Uddelermeer (The Netherlands)

Lake Uddelermeer (The Netherlands) is characterized by turbid conditions and annual blooms of toxic cyanobacteria, which are supposed to be the result of increased agricultural activity in the twentieth century AD. We applied a combination of classic palaeoecological proxies and novel geochemical proxies to the Holocene sediment record of Lake Uddelermeer (The Netherlands) in order to reconstruct the natural variability of the lake ecosystem and to identify the drivers of the change to the turbid conditions that currently characterize this lake. We show that the lake ecosystem was characterized by a mix of aquatic macrophytes and abundant phytoplankton between 11,500 and 6000 cal year BP. A transition to a lake ecosystem with clear-water conditions and relatively high abundances of ‘isoetids’ coincides with the first signs of human impact on the landscape around Lake Uddelermeer during the Early Neolithic (ca. 6000 cal year BP). An abrupt and dramatic ecosystem shift can be seen at ca. 1030 cal year BP when increases in the abundance of algal microfossils and concentrations of sedimentary pigments indicate a transition to a turbid phytoplankton-dominated state. Finally, a strong increase in concentrations of plant and faecal biomarkers is observed around 1950 AD. Canonical Correspondence Analysis suggests that reconstructed lake ecosystem changes are best explained by environmental drivers that show long-term gradual changes (sediment age, water depth). These combined results document the long-term anthropogenic impact on the ecosystem of Lake Uddelermeer and provide evidence for pre-Industrial Era signs of eutrophication.     

Physical and numerical experiments on layered convection in a density-Stratified fluid

Abstract

The formation and growth of horizontal layered convection cells in a density stratified solution of salt water subject to an impulsively applied lateral temperature gradient is investigated with physical and numerical experiments. Results indicate that lyers are induced by two mechanisms. One is the successive formation of layers due to the presence of the top and bottom boundaries. The other is the spontaneous occurrence of layers when a suitably defined Rayleigh number exceeds a critical value. It is found that well established layers are homogeneous in temperature and salinity and are separated by sharp gradients in density. Lateral heat transfer is of a periodic nature. Numerical experiments were carried out for finite and infinite geometry cases. For the finite geometry case, convection cells are generated successively inward from the horizontal boundaries. For the infinite geometry case, periodic conditions in the vertical direction are assumed. With continuous input of small perturbations, simultaneous occurrence of the convection cells is obtained at supercritical Rayleigh numbers. Criteria for determining the onset of spontaneous cells numerically are explored.     

Natural building stones

Natural stone due to its durable properties has been the choice of building materials since the very beginning of civilization. However, once stone is taken from its natural environment it begins to change to reach a state of equilibrium with its new environment. The polluted urban environment is a particularly hostile environment for natural stone and the effect on natural stone buildings, especially of historical or cultural significance, is a major cause for concern. Ongoing research into weathering studies is essential to provide a greater understanding of the processes that trigger stone decay and to ensure the implementation of successful stone conservation and replacement strategies.     

Hillslope groundwater discharges provide localized stream ecosystem buffers from regional per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances contamination

Emerging groundwater contaminants such as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) may impact surface-water quality and groundwater-dependent ecosystems of gaining streams. Although complex near-surface hydrogeology of stream corridors challenges sampling efforts, recent advances in heat tracing of discharge zones enable efficient and informed data collection. For this study, we used a combination of streambed temperature push-probe and thermal infrared methods to guide a discharge-zone-oriented sample collection along approximately 6 km of a coastal trout stream on Cape Cod, MA. Eight surface-water locations and discharging groundwater from 24 streambed and bank seepages were analysed for dissolved oxygen (DO), specific conductance, stable water isotopes, and a range of PFAS compounds, which are contaminants of emerging concern in aquatic environments. The results indicate a complex system of groundwater discharge source flowpaths, where the sum of concentrations of six PFAS compounds (corresponding to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule “UCMR 3”) showed a median concentration of 52 ± 331 (SD) ng/L with two higher outliers and three discharges with PFAS concentrations below the quantification limit. Higher PFAS concentration was related (− 0.66 Spearman rank, p < .001) to discharging groundwater that showed an evaporative signature (deuterium excess), indicating flow through at least one upgradient kettle lake. Therefore, more regional groundwater flowpaths originating from outside the local river corridor tended to show higher PFAS concentrations as evaluated at their respective discharge zones. Conversely, PFAS concentrations were typically low at discharges that did not indicate evaporation and were adjacent to steep hillslopes and, therefore, were classified as locally recharged groundwater. Previous research at this stream found that the native brook trout spawn at discharge points of groundwater recharged on local hillslopes, likely in response to generally higher levels of DO. Our study shows that by targeting high oxygen discharges the trout may thereby be avoiding emerging contaminants such as PFAS in groundwater recharged farther from the stream.