The cost of social vulnerability: an integrative conceptual framework and model for assessing financial risks in natural disaster management

Natural Hazards - Groups that are unable to prepare for disasters, or to recover from damage on their own, have a high dependency on government services, which inevitably leads to more government...     

Patch dynamics of soil biotic feedbacks in the Sonoran Desert

Soil fertility in arid ecosystems is spatially and temporally heterogeneous, due primarily to biotic feedbacks from perennial plants. While the “island of fertility” effect is well-established, little is known about the influence of plant functional characteristics on soil nutrients, or changes in nutrient levels following mortality or microsite succession. To assess these patterns, we studied a functionally diverse Sonoran Desert ecosystem in which all microsite state transitions were determined. The woody species (Ambrosia deltoidea, Larrea tridentata, Parkinsonia microphylla) significantly enhanced soil organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorous levels (referred to generally as fertility) to varying degrees. Effect sizes differed significantly among species but were surprisingly similar. However, following mortality, fertility remained constant beneath Ambrosia and increased significantly beneath decaying Parkinsonia, contrary to expected declines. These results suggest that nutrients are recycled within a microsite, resulting in similar pool sizes beneath live plants across species, regardless of morphological or phonological differences. Microsites occupied by cacti exhibited no differences from bare soil, indicating that cacti may erase islands of fertility. However, nitrate and phosphate levels spiked following mortality of the large cactus, Carnegiea gigantea. In general, fertility effects were correlated with morphological characteristics that should be applicable across most arid systems.     

Mass Flux Analysis of Abiotic Tetrachloroethene Dense Nonaqueous Phase Liquid Pool Dissolution in a Heterogeneous Flow Environment

Porous aquifer materials are often characterized by layered heterogeneities that influence groundwater flow and present complexities in contaminant transport modeling. Such flow variations also have the potential to impact the dissolution flux from dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) pools. This study examined how these heterogeneous flow conditions affected the dissolution of a tetrachloroethene (PCE) pool in a two-dimensional intermediate-scale flow cell containing coarse sand. A steady-state mass-balance approach was used to calculate the PCE dissolution rate at three different flow rates. As expected, aqueous PCE concentrations increased along the length of the PCE pool and higher flow rates decreased the aqueous PCE concentration in the effluent. Nonreactive tracer studies at two flow rates confirmed the presence of a vertical flow gradient, with the most rapid velocity located at the bottom of the tank. These results suggest that flow focusing occurred near the DNAPL pool. Effluent PCE concentrations and pool dissolution flux rates were compared to model predictions assuming local equilibrium (LE) conditions at the DNAPL pool/aqueous phase interface and a uniform distribution of flow. The LE model did not describe the data well, even over a wide range of PCE solubility and macroscopic transverse dispersivity values. Model predictions assuming nonequilibrium mass-transfer-limited conditions and accounting for vertical flow gradients, however, resulted in a better fit to the data. These results have important implications for evaluating DNAPL pool dissolution in the field where subsurface heterogeneities are likely to be present.     

Using habitat suitability models for multiscale forensic geolocation analysis

Pollen is one of the most durable environmental materials that law enforcement agencies recover as trace evidence from people and objects. Although links between objects and geographic locations are essential during legal investigations, the approach of using pollen and other microbial fingerprints to build these links in an analytical framework is still underutilized. This study uses bees as objects that are mobile and collects environmental traces as a test case to determine the efficacy of predictive geolocation efforts with recovered pollen and species distribution models at both subcontinental and global scales. Results demonstrate promising performance in both the predictive capability of species distribution models and identification of possible location history of bees at both study extents. When coupling pollen with other categories of evidentiary items, this geographic attribution framework can aid law enforcement personnel in refining investigation priorities and optimizing search strategies.     

High-frequency signal and noise estimates of CSR GRACE RL04

A sliding window technique is used to create daily-sampled Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) solutions with the same background processing as the official CSR RL04 monthly series. By estimating over shorter time spans, more frequent solutions are made using uncorrelated data, allowing for higher frequency resolution in addition to daily sampling. Using these data sets, high-frequency GRACE errors are computed using two different techniques: assuming the GRACE high-frequency signal in a quiet area of the ocean is the true error, and computing the variance of differences between multiple high-frequency GRACE series from different centers. While the signal-to-noise ratios prove to be sufficiently high for confidence at annual and lower frequencies, at frequencies above 3 cycles/year the signal-to-noise ratios in the large hydrological basins looked at here are near 1.0. Comparisons with the GLDAS hydrological model and high frequency GRACE series developed at other centers confirm CSR GRACE RL04’s poor ability to accurately and reliably measure hydrological signal above 3–9 cycles/year, due to the low power of the large-scale hydrological signal typical at those frequencies compared to the GRACE errors.     

Monitoring persistent organic pollutants in leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) confirms maternal transfer

To assess threats to endangered species, it is critical to establish baselines for contaminant concentrations that may have detrimental consequences to individuals or populations. We measured contaminants in blubber and fat from dead leatherback turtles and established baselines in blood and eggs in nesting turtles. In fat, blubber, blood and eggs, the predominant PCBs were 153 + 132, 187 + 182, 138 + 163, 118, and 180 + 193. Total PCBs, 4,4′-DDE, total PBDEs and total chlordanes were significantly and positively correlated between blood and eggs, suggesting maternal transfer. Significant positive relationships also existed between fat and blubber in stranded leatherbacks. Less lipophilic PCBs appeared to more readily transfer from females to their eggs. PBDE profiles in the four tissues were similar to other wildlife populations but different from some turtle studies. Concentrations were lower than those shown to have acute toxic effects in other aquatic reptiles, but may have sub-lethal effects on hatchling body condition and health.     

Analysis of trends in annual streamflow to the Arctic Ocean

There is increasing interest in the magnitude of the flow of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean due to its impacts on the biogeophysical and socio‐economic systems in the north and its influence on global climate. This study examines freshwater flow based on a dataset of 72 rivers that either directly or indirectly contribute flow to the Arctic Ocean or reflect the hydrologic regime of areas contributing flow to the Arctic Ocean. Annual streamflow for the 72 rivers is categorized as to the nature and location of the contribution to the Arctic Ocean, and composite series of annual flows are determined for each category for the period 1975 to 2015. A trend analysis is then conducted for the annual discharge series assembled for each category. The results reveal a general increase in freshwater flow to the Arctic Ocean with this increase being more prominent from the Eurasian rivers than from the North American rivers. A comparison with trends obtained from an earlier study ending in 2000 indicates similar trend response from the Eurasian rivers, but dramatic differences from some of the North American rivers. A total annual discharge increase of 8.7 km³/y/y is found, with an annual discharge increase of 5.8 km³/y/y observed for the rivers directly flowing to the Arctic Ocean. The influence of annual or seasonal climate oscillation indices on annual discharge series is also assessed. Several river categories are found to have significant correlations with the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, no significant association with climate indices is found for the river categories leading to the largest freshwater contribution to the Arctic Ocean.     

Influence of salinity and fish species on PAH uptake from dispersed crude oil

The use of chemical oil dispersants to minimize spill impacts causes a transient increase in hydrocarbon concentrations in water, which increases the risk to aquatic species if toxic components become more bioavailable. The risk of effects depends on the extent to which dispersants enhance the exposure to toxic components, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). Increased salinities can reduce the solubility of PAH and the efficiency of oil dispersants. This study measured changes in the induction of CYP1A enzymes of fish to demonstrate the effect of salinity on PAH availability. Freshwater rainbow trout and euryhaline mummichog were exposed to water accommodated fractions (WAF), and chemically-enhanced water accommodated fractions (CEWAF) at 0 per thousand, 15 per thousand, and 30 per thousand salinity. For both species, PAH exposure decreased as salinity increased whereas dispersant effectiveness decreased only at the highest salinity. Hence, risks to fish of PAH from dispersed oil will be greatest in coastal waters where salinities are low.     

Hydraulic redistribution by deeply rooted grasses and its ecohydrologic implications in the southern Great Plains of North America

Perennial bioenergy crops with deep (>1 m) rooting systems, such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), are hypothesized to increase carbon storage in deep soil. Deeply rooted plants may also affect soil hydrology by accessing deep soil water for transpiration, which can affect soil water content and infiltration in deep soil layers, thereby affecting groundwater recharge. Using stable H and O isotope (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) and ³H values, we studied the soil water conditions at 20–30 cm intervals to depths of 2.4–3.6 m in paired fields of switchgrass and shallow rooted crops at three sites in the southern Great Plains of North America. We found that soil under switchgrass had consistently higher soil water content than nearby soil under shallow-rooted annual crops by a margin of 15%–100%. Soil water content and isotopic depth profiles indicated that hydraulic redistribution of deep soil water by switchgrass roots explained these observed soil water differences. To our knowledge, these are the first observations of hydraulic redistribution in deeply rooted grasses, and complement earlier observations of dynamic soil water fluxes under shallow-rooted grasses. Hydraulic redistribution by switchgrass may be a strategy for drought avoidance, wherein the plant may actively prevent water limitation. This raises the possibility that deeply rooted grasses may be used to passively subsidize soil water to more shallow-rooted species in inter-cropping arrangements.     

Shallow seismicity, triggered seismicity, and ambient noise tomography at the long-dormant Uturuncu Volcano, Bolivia

Using a network of 15 seismometers around the inflating Uturuncu Volcano from April 2009 to 2010, we find an average rate of about three local volcano-tectonic earthquakes per day, and swarms of 5–60 events a few times per month with local magnitudes ranging from −1.2 to 3.7. The earthquake depths are near sea level, more than 10 km above the geodetically inferred inflation source and the Altiplano Puna Magma Body. The Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake on 27 February 2010 triggered hundreds of earthquakes at Uturuncu with the onset of the Love and Rayleigh waves and again with the passage of the X2/X3 overtone phases of Rayleigh waves. This is one of the first incidences in which triggering has been observed from multiple surface wave trains. The earthquakes are oriented NW–SE similar to the regional faults and lineaments. The b value of the catalog is 0.49, consistent with a tectonic origin of the earthquakes. We perform ambient noise tomography using Love wave cross-correlations to image a low-velocity zone at 1.9 to 3.9 km depth below the surface centered slightly north of the summit. The low velocities are perhaps related to the hydrothermal system and the low-velocity zone is spatially correlated with earthquake locations. The earthquake rate appears to vary with time—a seismic deployment from 1996 to 1997 reveals 1–5 earthquakes per day, whereas 60 events/day were seen during 5 days using one seismometer in 2003. However, differences in analysis methods and magnitudes of completeness do not allow direct comparison of these seismicity rates. The rate of seismic activity at Uturuncu is higher than at other well-monitored inflating volcanoes during periods of repose. The frequent swarms and triggered earthquakes suggest the hydrothermal system is metastable.