Determining the number of manual measurements required to improve peat thickness estimations by ground penetrating radar

Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is often used for investigating peat thickness. The quality of GPR measurements depends on electromagnetic wave (EMW) velocity estimates. The objective of this study is to determine the number of manual measurements required to minimize EMW velocity error in peatlands. A total of 175 manually measured peat thicknesses are used with a depth‐to‐target method to assess EMW velocity in two southern Quebec peatlands. Mean measured EMW velocities are 0·040 and 0·039 m ns^–1 with standard deviations of 0·013 and 0·008 m ns^–1. Statistical analyses show that at least 30 calibration points are required to minimize the EMW velocity error, regardless of the geological setting. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of nearshore wave models in steep reef environments

To provide coastal engineers and scientists with a quantitative evaluation of nearshore numerical wave models in reef environments, we review and compare three commonly used models with detailed laboratory observations. These models are the following: (1) SWASH (Simulating WAves till SHore) (Zijlema et al. 2011), a phase-resolving nonlinear shallow-water wave model with added nonhydrostatic terms; (2) SWAN (Simulating WAve Nearshore) (Booij et al. 1999), a phase-averaged spectral wave model; and (3) XBeach (Roelvink et al. 2009), a coupled phase-averaged spectral wave model (applied to modeling sea-swell waves) and a nonlinear shallow-water model (applied to modeling infragravity waves). A quantitative assessment was made of each model’s ability to predict sea-swell (SS) wave height, infragravity (IG) wave height, wave spectra, and wave setup ( \( \overline{\eta} \) ) at five locations across the laboratory fringing reef profile of Demirbilek et al. (2007). Simulations were performed with the “recommended” empirical coefficients as documented for each model, and then the key wave-breaking parameter for each model (α in SWASH and γ in both SWAN and XBeach) was optimized to most accurately reproduce the observations. SWASH, SWAN, and XBeach were found to be capable of predicting SS wave height variations across the steep fringing reef profile with reasonable accuracy using the default coefficients. Nevertheless, tuning of the key wave-breaking parameter improved the accuracy of each model’s predictions. SWASH and XBeach were also able to predict IG wave height and spectral transformation. Although SWAN was capable of modeling the SS wave height, in its current form, it was not capable of modeling the spectral transformation into lower frequencies, as evident in the underprediction of the low-frequency waves.     

Two solution methods for dynamic game in reservoir operation

During the last decade, a number of models have been developed to consider the conflict in dynamic reservoir operation. Most of these models are discrete dynamic models which are developed based on game theory. In this study, a continuous model of dynamic game and its corresponding solutions are developed for reservoir operation. Two solution methods are used to solve the model of continuous dynamic game, namely the Ricatti equations and collocation methods. The Ricatti equations method is a closed form solution, requiring less computational efforts compared with discrete models. The collocation solution method applies Newton's method or a quasi-Newton method to find the problem solution. These approaches are able to generate operating policies for dynamic reservoir operation. The Zayandeh-Rud river basin in central Iran is used as a case study and the results are compared with alternative water allocation models. The results show that the proposed solution methods are quite capable of providing appropriate reservoir operating policies, while requiring rather short computational times due to continuous formulation of state and decision variables. Reliability indices are used to compare the overall performance of the proposed models. Based on the results from this study, the collocation method leads to improved values of the reliability indices for total reservoir system and utility satisfaction of water users, compared to the Ricatti equations method. This is attributed to the flexible structure of the collocation model. When compared to alternative water allocation models, lower values of reliability indices are achieved by the collocation method.     

The effects of surface moisture on aeolian sediment transport threshold and mass flux on a beach

This paper presents results from a study designed to explore the effects of beach surface moisture and fetch effects on the threshold of movement, intensity of sand transport by wind and mass flux. The experiment was carried out over a period of five weeks at Greenwich Dunes, Prince Edward Island, Canada in May and June 2002. Moisture content was measured with a Delta‐T moisture probe over a 50 m by 25 m grid established on the beach. Measurements of wind speed and direction were made with arrays of cup anemometers and a two‐dimensional sonic anemometer. Transport intensity was measured at a height of 2–4 cm above the bed using omnidirectional saltation probes which count the impact of saltating grains on a piezoelectric crystal. Anemometers and saltation probes were sampled at 1 Hz. Sand transport was measured with vertical integrating sand traps over periods of 10–20 minutes. Results show that where there is a considerable supply of dry sand the saltation system responds very rapidly (1–2 s) to fluctuations in wind speed, i.e. to wind gusts. Where sand supply from the surface is limited by moisture, mean transport rates are much lower and this reflects in both a reduction in the instantaneous transport rate and in a transport system that becomes increasingly intermittent. Threshold wind speed is significantly correlated with an increase in surface moisture content near the upwind end of the beach fetch, but the relationship is not significant at the downwind end where sediment transport is initiated primarily by saltation impact from upwind. Mass flux increases with increasing fetch length and the relationship is described best by a power function. Further work is necessary to develop a theoretical function to predict the increase in transport with fetch distance as well as the critical fetch distance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Depositional history and evolution of the Paso del Indio site,Vega Baja,Puerto Rico

Potshards discovered during excavation of bridge pilasters for a major expressway over the Rio Indio floodplain, a stream incised within the karsts of north‐central Puerto Rico, required large‐scale archaeological excavation. Five‐meter‐deep bridge pilaster excavations in the alluvial valley provide a 4500‐year history of deposition. Stratigraphic analysis of the exposed pilaster walls in combination with textural and organic carbon analyses of sediment cores obtained over a much broader area suggest a fluvial system dominated by overbank deposition. Six sequences of alternating light and dark layers of sediment were identified. The darker layers are largely composed of silts and clays, whereas the lighter layers are rich in sand‐sized sediment. Archaeological evidence indicates the organic‐rich dark layers, believed to be buried A horizons, coincide with pre‐historic occupation by Cedrosan Saladoid, Elenan Ostionoid, and Chican Ostionoid, extending from A.D. 450 to A.D. 1500. Lighter layers below the dark soil horizons are interpreted as overbank deposits from large magnitude flood events. The floodplain aggraded discontinuously with rapid deposition of sand followed by gradual accumulation of silt, clay, and organic material. An approximately 1‐m‐thick layer of coarse sand and gravel halfway up the stratigraphic column represents an episode of more frequent and severe floods. Based on radiocarbon ages, this layer aggraded between A.D. 1000 and A.D. 1100, which is well within the Elenan Ostionoid era (A.D. 900–1200). Rates of sedimentation during this period were approximately 8 mm per year, ten times greater than the estimates of sedimentation rates before and after this flood sequence. The cause for the change in deposition is unknown. Nonetheless the Elenan Ostionoid would have had to endure frequent loss of habitation structures and crops during these events. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

An ocean observation system for monitoring the affects of climate change on the ecology and sustainability of pelagic fisheries in the Pacific Ocean

Climate change presents an emerging challenge to the sustainable management of tuna fisheries, and robust information is essential to ensure future sustainability. Climate and harvest affect tuna stocks, populations of non-target, dependent species and the ecosystem. To provide relevant advice we need an improved understanding of oceanic ecosystems and better data to parameterise the models that forecast the impacts of climate change. Currently ocean-wide data collection in the Pacific Ocean is primarily restricted to oceanographic data. However, the fisheries observer programs that operate in the region offer an opportunity to collect the additional information on the mid and upper trophic levels of the ecosystem that is necessary to complement this physical data, including time-series of distribution, abundance, size, composition and biological information on target and non-target species and mid trophic level organisms. These observer programs are in their infancy, with limited temporal and spatial distribution but recent international and national policy decisions have been made to expand their coverage. We identify a number of actions to initiate this monitoring including: consolidating collaborations to ensure the use of best quality data; developing consistency between sub-regional observer programmes to ensure that they meet the objectives of ecosystem monitoring; interrogating of existing time series to determine the most appropriate spatial template for monitoring; and exploring existing ecosystem models to identify suitable indicators of ecosystem status and change. The information obtained should improve capacity to develop fisheries management policies that are resilient and can be adapted to climate change.     

Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed.     

An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, the sixth largest rice producer in the world, has been identified as high risk from the effects of climate change. Many of the adverse impacts of climate change such as land inundation and changes in weather patterns and CO₂ levels will impact the agricultural sector. This study develops a partial-equilibrium multi-regional farm household model of Bangladesh rice and non-rice agricultural markets to quantify the impacts of climate change on consumption, production, prices, and farmers’ welfare. The model is calibrated to the Bangladesh rice market using Household Income and Expenditure Survey data. The model is simulated to analyze the impact of land reduction and productivity decline resulting from climate change. The results show that the decline in production in the coastal and northern regions offsets the production increase in the central and eastern regions, and the simulation predicts that total rice production for Bangladesh falls by about 2%. As total rice consumption falls and imports rise, the net effect leads to a rise in the rice price by 5.71% and a decline in farmers’ welfare. Sensitivity analysis shows that more- (less-) effective abatement technology could play a key role in mitigating (exacerbating) the price and welfare effects. The model predicts that many farmers in regions directly impacted by climate change could leave farming in search of off-farm work. Thus, the government can ease this transition by promoting urban development to provide more job options and technical training for farmers.     

Bridging the Transition from Mesoscale to Microscale Turbulence in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

With a focus towards developing multiscale capabilities in numerical weather prediction models, the specific problem of the transition from the mesoscale to the microscale is investigated. For that purpose, idealized one-way nested mesoscale to large-eddy simulation (LES) experiments were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting model framework. It is demonstrated that switching from one-dimensional turbulent diffusion in the mesoscale model to three-dimensional LES mixing does not necessarily result in an instantaneous development of turbulence in the LES domain. On the contrary, very large fetches are needed for the natural transition to turbulence to occur. The computational burden imposed by these long fetches necessitates the development of methods to accelerate the generation of turbulence on a nested LES domain forced by a smooth mesoscale inflow. To that end, four new methods based upon finite amplitude perturbations of the potential temperature field along the LES inflow boundaries are developed, and investigated under convective conditions. Each method accelerated the development of turbulence within the LES domain, with two of the methods resulting in a rapid generation of production and inertial range energy content associated to microscales that is consistent with non-nested simulations using periodic boundary conditions. The cell perturbation approach, the simplest and most efficient of the best performing methods, was investigated further under neutral and stable conditions. Successful results were obtained in all the regimes, where satisfactory agreement of mean velocity, variances and turbulent fluxes, as well as velocity and temperature spectra, was achieved with reference non-nested simulations. In contrast, the non-perturbed LES solution exhibited important energy deficits associated to a delayed establishment of fully-developed turbulence. The cell perturbation method has negligible computational cost, significantly accelerates the generation of realistic turbulence, and requires minimal parameter tuning, with the necessary information relatable to mean inflow conditions provided by the mesoscale solution.     

On the possibility of a kinetic fractionation of nitrogen stable isotopes during natural diamond growth

In a diamond from New South Wales (Australia), cubic and octahedral growth sectors, as identified by cathodoluminescence (CL), show slight differences in N-contents of 29 and 42 ppm respectively but no significant differences in either δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N and nitrogen aggregation state with values at +1.96‰, +19.4‰, and 25% Type IaAB aggregation, respectively.Two gem cubes from the Orapa kimberlite (Botswana) were studied by CL revealing a nonfaceted cubic growth. Accordingly, nine other gem cubes were combusted and yielded δ¹³C-values from -5.33‰ to -6.63‰, δ¹⁵N from -1.0‰ to -5.5‰, and nitrogen contents from 914 to 1168 ppm, with nitrogen aggregation state being only Type IaA (zero % B). The gem cubes show striking similarities to fibrous/coated diamonds, not only in both δ¹³C ranges (less than 3‰ from -5 to -8‰), but also in the high levels of nitrogen (≈ 1000 ppm), suggesting that the two diamond types are related. Additionally, no δ¹⁵N variation was detected between the cube and octahedral growth sectors of the Australian diamond, in the cube sectors of the nine gem cubes from Botswana, nor in fibrous/coated diamonds previously studied. These analyses contrast with an earlier study on a synthetic diamond, which reported a strong kinetic fractionation of N-isotopes of about 40‰ between cube and octahedral growth. The present evidence, therefore, suggests that kinetic fractionation of N-isotopes does not operate during natural diamond formation.