Barrier jets around the Southern Alps of New Zealand and their potential to enhance alpine rainfall

We use new data from the SALPEX'96 campaign to examine the evolution of orographically modified flow over and around New Zealand's Southern Alps. We consider prefrontal situations for which the larger-scale synoptic pattern generates an incoming northwesterly flow perpendicular to the mountain axis, calculate the nondimensional parameters which control the wind flow and determine how long it takes orographic modifications to become established. We place flows over the New Zealand Alps in a Rossby number/Blocking number parameter space and compare them with flows over other mountain ranges on the globe. Using model and aircraft data, we show the region of modified flow extends over 100 km upstream of the Southern Alps.We show 2D model simulations represent many aspects of the flow modification satisfactorily, although they tend to overdevelop the final state of the Barrier Jet flow. In 3D, using real data to force the boundaries, the migratory nature of the weather systems in the area would generally limit the time available for a modified steady state to develop. In addition, in situations where there is significant lateral variation of initial fields, the 2D results may only be applicable for a few hours.From the point of view of potential to influence alpine rainfall processes, for the case studied, the gradual uplift associated with the modified flow between 1 and 2 km above sea level extended far enough upstream in saturated air to enable cloud drops to grow to drizzle drops before reaching the much more substantial updrafts at the foot of the Alps. This allows vigorous prefrontal precipitation to occur over the foothills and mountains due largely to warm rain processes.     

An ocean observation system for monitoring the affects of climate change on the ecology and sustainability of pelagic fisheries in the Pacific Ocean

Climate change presents an emerging challenge to the sustainable management of tuna fisheries, and robust information is essential to ensure future sustainability. Climate and harvest affect tuna stocks, populations of non-target, dependent species and the ecosystem. To provide relevant advice we need an improved understanding of oceanic ecosystems and better data to parameterise the models that forecast the impacts of climate change. Currently ocean-wide data collection in the Pacific Ocean is primarily restricted to oceanographic data. However, the fisheries observer programs that operate in the region offer an opportunity to collect the additional information on the mid and upper trophic levels of the ecosystem that is necessary to complement this physical data, including time-series of distribution, abundance, size, composition and biological information on target and non-target species and mid trophic level organisms. These observer programs are in their infancy, with limited temporal and spatial distribution but recent international and national policy decisions have been made to expand their coverage. We identify a number of actions to initiate this monitoring including: consolidating collaborations to ensure the use of best quality data; developing consistency between sub-regional observer programmes to ensure that they meet the objectives of ecosystem monitoring; interrogating of existing time series to determine the most appropriate spatial template for monitoring; and exploring existing ecosystem models to identify suitable indicators of ecosystem status and change. The information obtained should improve capacity to develop fisheries management policies that are resilient and can be adapted to climate change.     

Modes of variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation estimated by AGCMs

The seasonal mean variability of the atmospheric circulation is affected by processes with time scales from less than seasonal to interannual or longer. Using monthly mean data from an ensemble of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) realisations, the interannual variability of the seasonal mean is separated into intraseasonal, and slowly varying components. For the first time, using a recently developed method, the slowly varying component in multiple AGCM ensembles is further separated into internal and externally forced components. This is done for Southern Hemisphere 500?hPa geopotential height from five AGCMs in the CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century project for the summer and winter seasons. In both seasons, the intraseasonal and slow modes of variability are qualitatively well reproduced by the models when compared with reanalysis data, with a relative metric finding little overall difference between the models. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is by far the dominant mode of slowly varying internal atmospheric variability. Two slow-external modes of variability are related to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, and a third is the atmospheric response to trends in external forcing. An ENSO-SAM relationship is found in the model slow modes of variability, similar to that found by earlier studies using reanalysis data. There is a greater spread in the representation of model slow-external modes in winter than summer, particularly in the atmospheric response to external forcing trends. This may be attributable to weaker external forcing constraints on SH atmospheric circulation in winter.     

Bridging the Transition from Mesoscale to Microscale Turbulence in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

With a focus towards developing multiscale capabilities in numerical weather prediction models, the specific problem of the transition from the mesoscale to the microscale is investigated. For that purpose, idealized one-way nested mesoscale to large-eddy simulation (LES) experiments were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting model framework. It is demonstrated that switching from one-dimensional turbulent diffusion in the mesoscale model to three-dimensional LES mixing does not necessarily result in an instantaneous development of turbulence in the LES domain. On the contrary, very large fetches are needed for the natural transition to turbulence to occur. The computational burden imposed by these long fetches necessitates the development of methods to accelerate the generation of turbulence on a nested LES domain forced by a smooth mesoscale inflow. To that end, four new methods based upon finite amplitude perturbations of the potential temperature field along the LES inflow boundaries are developed, and investigated under convective conditions. Each method accelerated the development of turbulence within the LES domain, with two of the methods resulting in a rapid generation of production and inertial range energy content associated to microscales that is consistent with non-nested simulations using periodic boundary conditions. The cell perturbation approach, the simplest and most efficient of the best performing methods, was investigated further under neutral and stable conditions. Successful results were obtained in all the regimes, where satisfactory agreement of mean velocity, variances and turbulent fluxes, as well as velocity and temperature spectra, was achieved with reference non-nested simulations. In contrast, the non-perturbed LES solution exhibited important energy deficits associated to a delayed establishment of fully-developed turbulence. The cell perturbation method has negligible computational cost, significantly accelerates the generation of realistic turbulence, and requires minimal parameter tuning, with the necessary information relatable to mean inflow conditions provided by the mesoscale solution.     

The effects of surface moisture on aeolian sediment transport threshold and mass flux on a beach

This paper presents results from a study designed to explore the effects of beach surface moisture and fetch effects on the threshold of movement, intensity of sand transport by wind and mass flux. The experiment was carried out over a period of five weeks at Greenwich Dunes, Prince Edward Island, Canada in May and June 2002. Moisture content was measured with a Delta‐T moisture probe over a 50 m by 25 m grid established on the beach. Measurements of wind speed and direction were made with arrays of cup anemometers and a two‐dimensional sonic anemometer. Transport intensity was measured at a height of 2–4 cm above the bed using omnidirectional saltation probes which count the impact of saltating grains on a piezoelectric crystal. Anemometers and saltation probes were sampled at 1 Hz. Sand transport was measured with vertical integrating sand traps over periods of 10–20 minutes. Results show that where there is a considerable supply of dry sand the saltation system responds very rapidly (1–2 s) to fluctuations in wind speed, i.e. to wind gusts. Where sand supply from the surface is limited by moisture, mean transport rates are much lower and this reflects in both a reduction in the instantaneous transport rate and in a transport system that becomes increasingly intermittent. Threshold wind speed is significantly correlated with an increase in surface moisture content near the upwind end of the beach fetch, but the relationship is not significant at the downwind end where sediment transport is initiated primarily by saltation impact from upwind. Mass flux increases with increasing fetch length and the relationship is described best by a power function. Further work is necessary to develop a theoretical function to predict the increase in transport with fetch distance as well as the critical fetch distance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in plasma of bottlenose dolphins from two southeast US estuarine areas: relationship with age, sex and geographic locations

Plasma PFCs were measured in 157 bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) sampled from two US southeast Atlantic sites (Charleston (CHS), SC and Indian River Lagoon (IRL), FL) during 2003-2005. ∑PFCs, perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (∑PFCAs), perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (∑PFSAs) and individual compounds were significantly higher in CHS dolphins for all age/sex categories compared to IRL dolphins. Highest ∑PFCs concentrations occurred in CHS juvenile dolphins (2340 ng/g w.w.); significantly higher than found in adults (1570 ng/g w.w. males; 1330 ng/g w.w. females). ∑PFCAs were much greater in CHS dolphins (≈ 21%) compared to IRL dolphins (≈ 7%); ∑PFSAs were 79% in CHS dolphins versus 93% in IRL dolphins. PFOS, the dominant compound, averaged 72% and 84%, respectively, in CHS and IRL dolphins. Decreasing PFC levels occurred with age on the bioaccumulation of PFCs in both sites. These observations suggest PFC accumulation in these two dolphin populations are influenced by site-specific exposures with significantly higher levels in CHS dolphins.     

An assessment of large-scale flood modelling based on LiDAR data

Large-scale flood modelling approaches designed for regional to continental scales usually rely on relatively simple assumptions to represent the potentially highly complex river bathymetry at the watershed scale based on digital elevation models (DEMs) with a resolution in the range of 25–30 m. Here, high-resolution (1 m) LiDAR DEMs are employed to present a novel large-scale methodology using a more realistic estimation of bathymetry based on hydrogeomorphological GIS tools to extract water surface slope. The large-scale 1D/2D flood model LISFLOOD-FP is applied to validate the simulated flood levels using detailed water level data in four different watersheds in Quebec (Canada), including continuous profiles over extensive distances measured with the HydroBall technology. A GIS-automated procedure allows to obtain the average width required to run LISFLOOD-FP. The GIS-automated procedure to estimate bathymetry from LiDAR water surface data uses a hydraulic inverse problem based on discharge at the time of acquisition of LiDAR data. A tiling approach, allowing several small independent hydraulic simulations to cover an entire watershed, greatly improves processing time to simulate large watersheds with a 10-m resampled LiDAR DEM. Results show significant improvements to large-scale flood modelling at the watershed scale with standard deviation in the range of 0.30 m and an average fit of around 90%. The main advantage of the proposed approach is to avoid the need to collect expensive bathymetry data to efficiently and accurately simulate flood levels over extensive areas.     

Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales

This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by outlooks over longer time horizons. This system is based on three complementary approaches combined to produce the outlooks: (i) national-scale modelling of streamflow and groundwater levels based on dynamic seasonal rainfall forecasts, (ii) catchment-scale modelling where streamflow and groundwater level models are driven by historical meteorological forcings (i.e. the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP, approach), and (iii) a catchment-scale statistical method based on persistence and historical analogues. This paper provides the background to the Hydrological Outlook, describes the various component methods in detail and then considers the impact and usefulness of the product. As an example of a multi-method, operational seasonal hydrological forecasting system, it is hoped that this overview provides useful information and context for other forecasting initiatives around the world.     

Using UAV acquired photography and structure from motion techniques for studying glacier landforms: application to the glacial flutes at Isfallsglaciären

Glacier and ice sheet retreat exposes freshly deglaciated terrain which often contains small‐scale fragile geomorphological features which could provide insight into subglacial or submarginal processes. Subaerial exposure results in potentially rapid landscape modification or even disappearance of the minor‐relief landforms as wind, weather, water and vegetation impact on the newly exposed surface. Ongoing retreat of many ice masses means there is a growing opportunity to obtain high resolution geospatial data from glacier forelands to aid in the understanding of recent subglacial and submarginal processes. Here we used an unmanned aerial vehicle to capture close‐range aerial photography of the foreland of Isfallsglaciären, a small polythermal glacier situated in Swedish Lapland. An orthophoto and a digital elevation model with ~2 cm horizontal resolution were created from this photography using structure from motion software. These geospatial data was used to create a geomorphological map of the foreland, documenting moraines, fans, channels and flutes. The unprecedented resolution of the data enabled us to derive morphological metrics (length, width and relief) of the smallest flutes, which is not possible with other data products normally used for glacial landform metrics mapping. The map and flute metrics compare well with previous studies, highlighting the potential of this technique for rapidly documenting glacier foreland geomorphology at an unprecedented scale and resolution. The vast majority of flutes were found to have an associated stoss‐side boulder, with the remainder having a likely explanation for boulder absence (burial or erosion). Furthermore, the size of this boulder was found to strongly correlate with the width and relief of the lee‐side flute. This is consistent with the lee‐side cavity infill model of flute formation. Whether this model is applicable to all flutes, or multiple mechanisms are required, awaits further study. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.