Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

Suprathermal ions in quiescent periods at 1 AU in the 23rd and 24th solar-activity cycles

The relative abundances of suprathermal (with energies ～0.04–2 MeV/nucleon) ³He, ⁴He, C, O, and Fe ions and the energy spectra of 3He and Fe ions in near-Earth space during quiescent periods of solar activity are studied. Measurements obtained with the ULEIS instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft during the 23rd and 24th solar cycles are used. Substantial differences in the energy spectra of suprathermal ions in the 23rd and 24th solar cycles are observed for the selected quiescent periods. Appreciable differences in the energy dependences of the relative ion abundances are also found. One possible explanation for the results obtained is that the background ions were accelerated to suprathrmal energies under different conditions in the solar corona in these two cycles.     

Sampling and Characterizing Rare Earth Elements in Groundwater in Deep-Lying Fractures in Granitoids Under In Situ High-Pressure and Low-Redox Conditions

Several countries are preparing to dispose of radioactive nuclear waste deep underground in crystalline rock. This type of bedrock is commonly extensively fractured and consequently carries groundwater that serves as a medium for transporting metals and radionuclides. A group of metals of particular interest in this context is the rare earth elements (REEs), because they are analogues of actinides contained within radioactive waste and are tracers of hydrological pathways and geochemical processes. Concentrations of REEs are commonly low in these groundwaters, leading to values below detection limits of standard monitoring methods, particularly for the heavy REEs. We present a new technical set-up for monitoring REEs (and other trace metals) in groundwater in fractured crystalline rock. The technique consists of passing the fracture groundwater, commonly under high pressure and containing reduced chemical species, through a device that maintains the physicochemical character of the groundwater. Within the device, diffusive gradient in thin-film (DGT) discs are installed in triplicate. With this set-up, we studied REEs in groundwater in fractures at depths of approximately ?144, ?280, and ?450 m in granitoids in the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The entire REE suite was detected (concentrations down to 0.1 ng L^?1) and was differently fractionated among the groundwaters. The shallowest groundwater, composed of dilute modern Baltic Sea water, was enriched in the heavy REEs, whereas the deeper groundwaters, dominated by old saline water, were depleted in the heavy REEs. Deployment periods varying from 1 to 4 weeks delivered similar REE concentrations, indicating stability and reproducibility of the experimental set-up. The study finds that 1 week of deployment may be enough. However, if the overall setting and construction allow for longer deployment times, 2–3 weeks will be optimal in terms of reaching reliable REE concentrations well above the detection limit while maintaining the performance of the DGT samplers.     

Stratigraphy and tectonics of a time-transgressive ophiolite obduction onto the eastern margin of the Pelagonian platform from Late Bathonian until Valanginian time,exemplified in northern Evvoia,Greece

The obduction of an ophiolite sheet onto the eastern Pelagonian carbonate platform complex of the Hellenides began during the Late Bathonian and ended with the final emplacement of the ophiolite during Valanginian time. The early stages of obduction caused subaerial exposure of the platform, recorded by an unconformity of Callovian age, which is marked by laterites overlying folded and faulted, karstic substrates. The laterites have distinct ophiolitic geochemical signatures, indicating that emergent ophiolite had been undergoing lateritic weathering. This unconformity coincides with widespread western Tethyan, Callovian gaps, indicating that the obduction in the Hellenides was probably related to far-reaching plate tectonic processes. Resumed gravitational pull and rollback of the subducted, oceanic leading edge of the temporarily exposed ophiolite. Platform drowning continued into Tithonian–Valanginian time, documented initially by reefal carbonates and then by below-CCD, carbonate-free radiolarian cherts and shales. Subsequently, siliciclastic turbidites, which apparently originated from uplifted Variscan basement, were deposited together with and over the radiolarite as the ophiolite nappe sheet advanced. The nappe substrate underwent tectonic deformations of varying intensity, while polymictic mélange and syntectonic sedimentary debris accreted beneath the ophiolite and at the nappe front. The provenience of the ophiolite nappe complexes of northern Evvoia most probably has to be looked for in the Vardar ocean.     

Geophysical exploration on the subsurface geology of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field (NE Iberian Peninsula)

We applied self-potential (SP) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to the exploration of the uppermost part of the substrate geology and shallow structure of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field, part of the European Neogene–Quaternary volcanic province. The aim of the study was to improve knowledge of the shallowest part of the feeding system of these monogenetic volcanoes and of its relationship with the subsurface geology. This study complements previous geophysical studies carried out at a less detailed scale and aimed at identifying deeper structures, and together will constitute the basis to establish volcanic susceptibility in La Garrotxa. SP study complemented previous smaller-scale studies and targeted key areas where ERT could be conducted. The main new results include the generation of resistivity models identifying dykes and faults associated with several monogenetic cones. The combined results confirm that shallow tectonics controlling the distribution of the foci of eruptive activity in this volcanic zone mainly correspond to NNW–SSE and accessorily by NNE–SSW Neogene extensional fissures and faults and concretely show the associated magmatic intrusions. These structures coincide with the deeper ones identified in previous studies, and show that previous Alpine tectonic structures played no apparent role in controlling the loci of this volcanism. Moreover, the results obtained show that the changes in eruption dynamics occurring at different vents located at relatively short distances in this volcanic area are controlled by shallow stratigraphical, structural and hydrogeological differences underneath these monogenetic volcanoes.     

Using Optical Properties to Quantify Fringe Mangrove Inputs to the Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM) Pool in a Subtropical Estuary

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and dissolved organic matter (DOM) optical properties were analyzed along two estuarine river transects during the wet and dry seasons to better understand DOM dynamics and quantify mangrove inputs. A tidal study was performed to assess the impacts of tidal pumping on DOM transport. DOM in the estuaries showed non-conservative mixing indicative of mangrove-derived inputs. Similarly, fluorescence data suggest that some terrestrial humic-like components showed non-conservative behavior. An Everglades freshwater-derived fluorescent component, which is associated with soil inputs from the Northern Everglades, behaved conservatively. During the dry season, a protein-like component behaved conservatively until the mid-salinity range when non-conservative behavior due to degradation and/or loss was observed. The tidal study data suggests mangrove porewater inputs to the rivers following low tide. The differences in quantity of DOM exported by the Shark and Harney Rivers imply that geomorphology and tidal hydrology may be a dominant factor controlling the amount of DOM exported from the mangrove ecotone, where up to 21 % of the DOC is mangrove-derived. Additionally, nutrient concentrations and other temporal factors may control DOM export from the mangroves, particularly for the microbially derived fluorescent components, contributing to the seasonal differences. The wet and dry season fluxes of mangrove DOM from the Shark River is estimated as 0.27?×?10⁹ mg C d^?1 and 0.075?×?10⁹ mg C d^?1, respectively, and the Harney River is estimated as 1.9?×?10⁹ mg C d^?1 and 0.20?×?10⁹ mg C d^?1.     

Calcium,Na, K and Mg Concentrations in Seawater by Inductively Coupled Plasma‐Atomic Emission Spectrometry: Applications to IAPSO Seawater Reference Material,Hydrothermal Fluids and Synthetic Seawater Solutions

We report a measurement procedure to determine simultaneously the major cation concentrations (Na, Ca, K and Mg) of seawater‐derived solutions by inductively coupled plasma‐atomic emission spectrometry. The best results were obtained when the IAPSO (‘standard’) seawater reference material was diluted by thirty times with Milli‐Q^® water. We obtained an average reference value r_K (the ratio of the mass fraction of potassium to that of chlorine, i.e., (g kg^?1)/(g kg^?1)) for IAPSO seawater of 0.0205 ± 0.0006 (2.9% RSD), not significantly different from 0.0206 ± 0.0005 (2.4% RSD) for seawater composition reported in the literature. The measured Na, Ca and Mg concentrations correspond to r_Na, r_Ca and r_Mg values of 0.5406 ± 0.0026 (0.5% RSD), 0.02192 ± 0.00048 (2.2% RSD) and 0.06830 ± 0.00047 (0.7% RSD), respectively, in line with previous values measured by wet‐chemistry and atomic absorption spectrophotometry or wet‐chemical titration. Our measurement procedure was used successfully on synthetic seawater solutions and high‐temperature hydrothermal fluids.     

In situ monitoring of karst springs in Wallonia (southern Belgium)

The implementation of the Water Framework Directive, as well as the forthcoming entry into force of other European water policies focusing on water resources, require a thorough reorganization of groundwater resources monitoring in most European countries. In Wallonia, monitoring programs were initiated in 2005 to control the quantitative and chemical statuses of groundwater bodies, as well as the effectiveness of management plans aimed at achieving environmental objectives. In karst aquifers, springs are preferential monitoring targets even if, as a result of the high heterogeneity of this type of aquifer, the interpretation of time series and spatial data remains a challenge. Since 2006, a “springs” monitoring network has been progressively set up in the southern part of Belgium. Currently, in situ measurements of discharge, temperature, conductivity, turbidity and fluorescence of water are conducted at nine karstic outlets in the Devonian and the Carboniferous limestone aquifers of Wallonia. The main objective of this ongoing research is to evaluate the suitability and the robustness of such standard measurements to discriminate anthropogenic impacts from natural variations, at both short- and long-term scales. Discharge and temperature data revealed being useful in the assessment of regional hydro-climatic trends. Groundwater proved to be a better natural filter for the assessment of long-term climatic changes than mathematical filtering of noisy surface signals. Investigations of such data at a European scale could therefore give additional insight into the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources. Conductivity, turbidity and fluorescence data characterize the particulate, mineral and organic health of water and a better understanding of their natural dynamics could help in the early detection of anthropogenic deviations. However, the current reproducibility of these measurements is too low to ascertain observed trends and fluctuations, and further research is still needed.