Assessing homogeneous regions relative to drought class transitions using an ANOVA-like inference. Application to Alentejo, Portugal

In the present study, an ANOVA-like inference technique is used aiming at to assess if Alentejo, southern Portugal, could be considered a homogeneous region for drought management purposes. First, Alentejo was divided into four sub-regions according to latitude (north and south), and longitude (west and east). Inside each sub-region, 10 weather stations were considered. The time series of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were obtained for these stations using precipitation data for the period 1932–1999 (67 years). Contingency tables for the transitions between SPI drought classes were obtained for these time series. Loglinear models were fitted to these contingency tables to estimate the probabilities for drought class transitions. An ANOVA-like inference was applied considering the four sub-regions like treatments of a two way layout with two factors, latitude and longitude, each one with two levels, north and south, and west and east respectively. The weather stations of each sub-region were treated as replicates. Significant differences between west and east were found, that allowed to consider that Alentejo could be composed by two sub-regions.     

Chemical and dynamical evolution of spiral galaxies

We investigate the consequences of the hypothesis of the secular evolution (growth of the bulge from disc material via a bar and temporal evolution of the Hubble sequence) on the chemical evolution of a galaxy. We present the first dynamical and chemical results of our 3D tree-SPH simulations. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Groundwater occurrence in cold environments: examples from Nunavik,Canada

Water availability and management issues related to the supply of drinking water in northern communities are problematic in Canada. While rivers and lakes are abundant, they are vulnerable to contamination and may become dry in winter due to freezing. Groundwater can often provide a more secure and sustainable water source, however its availability is limited in northern Canada due to the presence of permafrost. Moreover, the exploitation of northern aquifers poses a dual challenge of identifying not only permafrost-free areas, but also permeable areas which will allow groundwater recharge and exploitation. Suitable aquifers are not as common in northern Canada since the shallow subsurface is mostly composed of low-permeability crystalline rocks or unconsolidated sediments of glacial origin that are highly heterogeneous. In order to investigate groundwater occurrence and associated geological contexts in Nunavik (northern Quebec, Canada), along with exploring how these resources will evolve in response to climate change, field and compilation work were conducted in the surroundings of the four villages of Salluit, Kuujjuaq, Umiujaq and Whapmagoostui-Kuujjuarapik. These villages are located in different permafrost zones, ranging from continuous to discontinuous, as well as in different geological environments. It was found that despite the ubiquitous presence of permafrost, unfrozen aquifers could be identified, which suggests that groundwater may be available as a source of drinking water for small communities. Expected climate change, with predicted permafrost thawing and increases in temperature and precipitation, should enhance groundwater availability and may contribute to a more secure source of drinking water for northern communities.     

Central Mediterranean tephrochronology between 313 and 366 ka: New insights from the Fucino palaeolake sediment succession

Thirty-two tephra layers were identified in the time-interval 313–366 ka (Marine Isotope Stages 9–10) of the Quaternary lacustrine succession of the Fucino Basin, central Italy. Twenty-seven of these tephra layers yielded suitable geochemical material to explore their volcanic origins. Investigations also included the acquisition of geochemical data of some relevant, chronologically compatible proximal units from Italian volcanoes. The record contains tephra from some well-known eruptions and eruptive sequences of Roman and Roccamonfina volcanoes, such as the Magliano Romano Plinian Fall, the Orvieto–Bagnoregio Ignimbrite, the Lower White Trachytic Tuff and the Brown Leucitic Tuff. In addition, the record documents eruptions currently undescribed in proximal (i.e. near-vent) sections, suggesting a more complex history of the major eruptions of the Colli Albani, Sabatini, Vulsini and Roccamonfina volcanoes between 313 and 366 ka. Six of the investigated tephra layers were directly dated by single-crystal-fusion ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating, providing the basis for a Bayesian age–depth model and a reassessment of the chronologies for both already known and dated eruptive units and for so far undated eruptions. The results provide a significant contribution for improving knowledge on the peri-Tyrrhenian explosive activity as well as for extending the Mediterranean tephrostratigraphical framework, which was previously based on limited proximal and distal archives for that time interval.     

Updating Local Anisotropies with Template Matching During Geostatistical Seismic Inversion

Mathematical Geosciences - Iterative geostatistical seismic inversion methods are widely used to predict petro-elastic rock properties from seismic reflection data. When the model perturbation...     

A Bayesian framework for the validation of models for subsurface flows: synthetic experiments

We present a new Bayesian framework for the validation of models for subsurface flows. We use a compositional model to simulate CO₂ storage in saline aquifers, comparing simulated saturations to observed saturations, together with a Bayesian analysis, to refine the permeability field. At the laboratory scale, we consider a core that is initially fully saturated with brine in a drainage experiment performed at aquifer conditions. Two types of data are incorporated in the framework: the porosity field in the entire core and CO₂ saturation values at equally spaced core slices for several values of time. These parameters are directly measured with a computed tomography scanner. We then find permeability fields that (1) are consistent with the measured parameters and, at the same time, (2) allow one to predict future fluid flow. We combine high performance computing, Bayesian inference, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) method for characterizing the posterior distribution of the permeability field conditioned on the available dynamic measurements (saturation values at slices). We assess the quality of our characterization procedure by Monte Carlo predictive simulations, using permeability fields sampled from the posterior distribution. In our characterization step, we solve a compositional two-phase flow model for each permeability proposal and compare the solution of the model with the measured data. To establish the feasibility of the proposed framework, we present computational experiments involving a synthetic permeability field known in detail. The experiments show that the framework captures almost all the information about the heterogeneity of the permeability field of the core. We then apply the framework to real cores, using data measured in the laboratory.     

Accurate Determination of the TOA Solar Spectral NIR Irradiance Using a Primary Standard Source and the Bouguer–Langley Technique

We describe an instrument dedicated to measuring the top of atmosphere (TOA) solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the near-infrared (NIR) between 600 nm and 2300 nm at a resolution of 10 nm. Ground-based measurements are performed through atmospheric NIR windows and the TOA SSI values are extrapolated using the Bouguer–Langley technique. The interest in this spectral range arises because it plays a main role in the Earth’s radiative budget and also because it is employed to validate models used in solar physics. Moreover, some differences were observed between recent ground-based and space-based instruments that take measurements in the NIR and the reference SOLSPEC(ATLAS3) spectrum. In the 1.6 μm region, the deviations vary from 6 % to 10 %. Our measuring system named IRSPERAD has been designed by Bentham (UK) and has been radiometrically characterized and absolutely calibrated against a blackbody at the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy and at the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (Germany), respectively. A four-month measurement campaign was carried out at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory (Canary Islands, 2367 m a.s.l.). A set of top-quality solar measurements was processed to obtain the TOA SSI in the NIR windows. We obtained an average standard uncertainty of 1 % for 0.8 μm<λ<2.3 μm. At 1.6 μm, corresponding to the minimum opacity of the solar photosphere, we obtained an irradiance of 234.31±1.29 mWm^?2?nm^?1. Between 1.6 μm and 2.3 μm, our measurements show a disagreement varying from 6 % to 8 % relative to ATLAS3, which is not explained by the declared standard uncertainties of the two experiments.     

Transpiration in Quercus suber trees under shallow water table conditions: the role of soil and groundwater

Water is one of the major environmental factors limiting plant growth and survival in the Mediterranean region. Quercus suber L. woodlands occupy vast areas in the Iberian Peninsula, frequently under shallow water table conditions. The relative magnitude of soil and groundwater uptake to supply transpiration is not easy to evaluate under these circumstances. We recently developed a conceptual framework for the functioning of the root system in Q. suber that simulates well tree transpiration, based on two types of root behaviour: shallow connected and deep connected. Although this significantly improved knowledge on the functional traits of Mediterranean Q. suber, the approach has the limitation of requiring root sap flow data, which are seldom available. In this work, we present alternative methodologies to assess if trees are connected to groundwater and to estimate the soil and groundwater contributions to tree transpiration. We provide evidence on the tree unrestricted access to groundwater solely based on meteorological, stem sap flow and leaf water potential data. Using a soil mass balance approach, we estimated the yearly soil and groundwater contributions to tree transpiration: 69.7% and 30.3%, respectively. Groundwater uptake became dominant in the dry summer: 73.2% of tree transpiration. Results reproduce extremely well those derived from root modelling. Because of its simplicity both in formulation and data requirements, our approach is potentially liable to be adapted to other groundwater‐dependent Mediterranean oak sites, where interactions between land use and water resources may be relevant. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.