A Bayesian framework for the validation of models for subsurface flows: synthetic experiments

We present a new Bayesian framework for the validation of models for subsurface flows. We use a compositional model to simulate CO₂ storage in saline aquifers, comparing simulated saturations to observed saturations, together with a Bayesian analysis, to refine the permeability field. At the laboratory scale, we consider a core that is initially fully saturated with brine in a drainage experiment performed at aquifer conditions. Two types of data are incorporated in the framework: the porosity field in the entire core and CO₂ saturation values at equally spaced core slices for several values of time. These parameters are directly measured with a computed tomography scanner. We then find permeability fields that (1) are consistent with the measured parameters and, at the same time, (2) allow one to predict future fluid flow. We combine high performance computing, Bayesian inference, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) method for characterizing the posterior distribution of the permeability field conditioned on the available dynamic measurements (saturation values at slices). We assess the quality of our characterization procedure by Monte Carlo predictive simulations, using permeability fields sampled from the posterior distribution. In our characterization step, we solve a compositional two-phase flow model for each permeability proposal and compare the solution of the model with the measured data. To establish the feasibility of the proposed framework, we present computational experiments involving a synthetic permeability field known in detail. The experiments show that the framework captures almost all the information about the heterogeneity of the permeability field of the core. We then apply the framework to real cores, using data measured in the laboratory.     

Anthropogenic heat in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil

The main goal of this work is to describe the anthropogenic energy flux (Q _F) in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil. The hourly, monthly, and annual values of the anthropogenic energy flux are estimated using the inventory method, and the contributions of vehicular, stationary, and human metabolism sources from 2004 to 2007 are considered. The vehicular and stationary sources are evaluated using the primary consumption of energy based on fossil fuel, bio fuel, and electricity usage by the population. The diurnal evolution of the anthropogenic energy flux shows three relative maxima, with the largest maxima occurring early in the morning (??19.9 Wm^?2) and in the late afternoon (??20.3 Wm^?2). The relative maximum that occurs around noontime (??19.6 Wm^?2) reflects the diurnal pattern of vehicle traffic that seems to be specific to S?o Paulo. With respect to diurnal evolution, the energy flux released by vehicular sources (Q _FV) contributes approximately 50% of the total anthropogenic energy flux. Stationary sources (Q _FS) and human metabolism (Q _FM) represent about 41% and 9% of the anthropogenic energy flux, respectively. For 2007, the monthly values of Q _FV, Q _FS, Q _FM, and Q _F are, respectively, 16.8?±?0.25, 14.3?±?0.16, 3.5?±?0.03, and 34.6?±?0.41?MJ?m^?2?month^?1. The seasonal evolution monthly values of Q _FV, Q _FS, Q _FM, and Q _F show a relative minimum during the summer and winter vacations and a systematic and progressive increase associated with the seasonal evolution of the economic activity in S?o Paulo. The annual evolution of Q _F indicates that the city of S?o Paulo released 355.2?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 in 2004 and 415.5?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 in 2007 in association with an annual rate of increase of 19.6?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 (from 2004 to 2006) and 30.5?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 (from 2006 to 2007). The anthropogenic energy flux corresponds to about 9% of the net radiation at the surface in the summer and 15% in the winter. The amplitude of seasonal variation of the maximum hourly value of the diurnal variation increases exponentially with latitude.     

Super-parameterization in ocean modeling: Application to deep convection

We explore the efficacy of “super parameterization” (SP) in ocean modeling in which local 2-d non-hydrostatic plume-resolving fine-grained (FG) models are embedded at each vertical column of a coarse-grained (CG) hydrostatic model. A general multi-scale algorithm is described in which tendencies from the FG models are projected onto the CG model which in turn constrains the average state of the FG models, coupling the two models together. The approach is tested in the context of models of open ocean deep convection and compared with a pure hydrostatic, coarse resolution model using convective adjustment (HYD) and a full 3-d non-hydrostatic plume-resolving simulation (NH). The SP model is found to be greatly superior to HYD at much less computational cost than the fully non-hydrostatic calculation.     

Video and field observations of wave attenuation in a muddy surf zone

Besides the different scales within which coastal processes manifest their energy, the majority of the world's coastal regions exhibit forms of sediment heterogeneity that are physically significant. One example of a heterogeneous environment is Cassino beach, located at the southernmost part of Brazil, a fine-grain-sized sandy beach where fluid mud sporadically is transported to the nearshore and eventually onto the beach. At this site in 2005, as part of a field experiment, a video system was installed. Three years after the installation, a large mud transgression event took place in February 2008 and had 5 km of extension. In this context, the goal of the present work is to characterize the mud deposition pattern across the surf zone, describing the consequences of mud on nearshore dynamics using remote sensing techniques, beach profiles and suspended matter concentration. The surveyed beach profiles registered the deposition of fluid mud at the inner surf zone with concentrations up to 12 mg/l. The material was deposited close to the shoreline and had a cross-shore width of 100 m during the first deposition day occupying the entire water column. From surf zone time series of pixel intensity, it was possible to detect the attenuation of the surface wave spectra due to the presence of fluid mud. The combination of video techniques and field data allowed one to follow the formation of a double-layer system, where fluid mud overlays the sandy bottom. The video-based system at Cassino demonstrated that remote detection of fluid mud and quantification of its effect on the nearshore dynamics is feasible. The combination of beach profiles, measurements of suspended matter concentration and intensity timestacks allowed the analysis of the short-term evolution of the mud depositional processes.     

Factors structuring temporal and spatial dynamics of macrobenthic communities in a eutrophic coastal lagoon (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal)

The present work aimed to identify the main environmental drivers shaping temporal and spatial dynamics of macrobenthic communities within a eutrophic coastal lagoon. Sediments in the óbidos lagoon showed a gradient of increasing metal contamination from the inlet area to inner branches. The mid-lower lagoon area exhibited an intermediate contaminated condition between the inlet and upstream areas, suggesting that the effects of the organic loadings into the lagoon may be reflected until this area. This transitional feature was corroborated by biological data, with macrobenthic assemblages displaying characteristics of down- and upstream areas. Macrobenthic abundance peaked in winter, which was associated with a higher nutrient availability (mainly ammonium) and the proliferation of green macroalgae in mid-lower and inner lagoon areas. However, massive macroalgae growth resulted in a sharp decrease of macrobenthic diversity and abundance in spring, particularly where the higher amounts of decaying algae were detected. Higher dissimilarities between assemblages were detected during winter (and spring, for trophic composition), while in summer, differences were highly attenuated. The least contaminated area (close to the sea inlet) experienced smaller temporal variations for environmental variables, as well as the lowest temporal biological variability. This area was dominated by carnivores, which were related with increased salinity. Deposit-feeders were numerically dominant in the lagoon, being generally spread within organically enriched sandy and muddy areas. The high concentration of chlorophyll a and suspended particulate matter in water was reflected in the abundance of deposit-feeders/suspension-feeders, taking benefit of the high primary productivity. On the other hand, deposit-feeders/herbivores responded to the decay of macroalgae mats in the sediment. Biological associations varied with the biological data used (taxonomic versus trophic group composition; abundance versus biomass), highlighting the relevance of the combination of different data analysis' approaches. In general, BIOENV analysis indicated total phosphorus, biomass of Ulva, metals and organic carbon and nitrogen as being significantly influencing benthic patterns. On the other hand, discrepancies in ecological behaviours of some taxa were also detected in the present study stressing the need for additional studies on the relationships between macrobenthic communities and environmental variables. Implications of the present results for monitoring studies are discussed.     

Mapping erosion risk under different scenarios of climate change for Aveiro coast, Portugal

Several coastal zones are facing shoreline retreat problems, losing territory due to energetic sea actions, negative sediment transport balances and climate change phenomena. To deal with this problem, efficient tools are necessary to help decision-makers choose the right procedures to follow. These tools should assess, estimate and project scenarios of coastal evolution in a medium-to-long-term perspective. To perform reliable projections, as many variables as possible should be analysed, and the impact of each of these variables on the shoreline evolution should be understood. This study aimed to analyse three climate change phenomena that are considered the most important in a Portuguese west coast stretch (at Aveiro region). The considered phenomena are the wave height increasing due to storms, the wave direction changes and the sea level rise. A shoreline evolution numerical model, long-term configuration, developed to support coastal zone planning and management in relation to erosion problems was applied. This work defined a methodology for classification of risk areas, considering the uncertainty associated with different wave climate sequences on simulations. As a result, different risk maps according to considered climate change effects were obtained, defining areas of high, medium and low risk of territory loss due to erosion. A generalized erosion tendency and shoreline retreat were observed, particularly in the downdrift side of groins. The sea water level rise showed lower impacts in the shoreline evolution than wave direction changes, or wave height increasing, which presents the highest impact.     

Structure and metamorphism of the Karakorum gneisses in the Braldu-Baltoro Valley (North Pakistan)

Abstract

The Karakorum gneisses outcrop north of the complex suture separating the Indian-Pakistan plate from the Europe-Asia block; they grade to deformed earlier members of the Karakorum batholith ranging in age from Cretaceous to Miocene and are cross-cut by its later members. The main interest of the region lies in the fact that very young high-grade gneisses (Miocene), outline the southern edge of the Europe-Asia Plate. The tectonic and metamorpic evolution of the Braldu-Baltoro region is interpreted here as resulting from a poly phased history. The following structural sequence has been defined : - (1) A Dl isoclinal folding was accompanied by subparallel healed shear zones and by intense boudinage, and cross-cut by a dense net of post-Dl hetero-geneous leucogranitic veins and stocks; - (2) a major phase of EW trending recumbent folds (D2), is followed by (3) large open D3 folds generating EW trending domai structures (Dassu and Panmah domes); and (4) a late set of brittle to locally more ductile structures such as the southern thrust contact of the Karakorum gneisses with the Shyok suture zone. The sequence proposed here differs from other interpretations (Rex et al. 1988). We consider that the Dl event only may be attributed to the main India-Asia collision and that the D2-D3 events, interpreted as having occurred in a continuum, correspond to a late reactivation of the major thrusts and sutures related to continuing continental subduction.

A Dl-related intermediate pressure assemblage is preserved (Grt-St-Ky) in the upper levels of the tectonic pile; the estimated PT conditions determined are 10-4 Kb and 700°--525°C. In the core of the large D3 domes, late granoblastic recrystallization is widespread together with almost complete S1-S2 transposition, incipient melting and development of a low-pressure sillimanite-bearing assemblage where relicts of higher pressure minerals are locally preserved. Corresponding PT conditions are 650°-550°C and a lower pressure (5.5 to 2.5 Kb). As most of the observed structures at the lower levels (mineral lineations, boudinage) are clearly associated with (or reworked by) D2 and accentuated by D3 which was accompagnied by partial melting, D2 and D3 are interpreted as representing a continuum developed in the same PT field. It can be assumed also that the Baltoro granite was emplaced by the end of this combined D2-D3 event. From the Miocene ages published for the Baltoro granite (20 Ma to 8 Ma), the low-pressure evolution of the Karakorum gneisses may represent a very young high-grade assemblage. The age of Dl is less defined but at least older than 36 Ma old leucogranites.

The sharp contact along the Shyok Suture zone, interpreted as a large thrust (Main Karakorum Thrust - MKT) of this young high-grade metamorphic terrene against the older (older than 30-45 Ma from late undeformed intrusives) Kohistan-Ladakh island-arc domain, is interpreted, following Mattauer (1985), as resulting from the interaction between the still-ongoing northward movement of the Indo-Pakistan plate and an opposite southward continental subduction, seismically active, operating in Pamir.     

Geology of the Rosário–Neves Corvo antiform, Iberian Pyrite Belt, Portugal: new insights from physical volcanology, palynostratigraphy and isotope geochronology studies

The lithostratigraphic sequence in the Rosário–Neves Corvo antiform comprises the Phyllite–Quartzite Group, whose top is of Famennian age, the Volcanic Sedimentary Complex, of Strunian to upper Visean age, and the Mértola Formation (the lower unit of the Baixo Alentejo Flysch Group) of upper Visean age. The volcanic sedimentary complex comprises a lower sequence of Strunian (Late Famennian) age and an upper sequence of lower to upper Visean age. Detailed mapping of the antiform towards NW of the Neves Corvo mine, supported by palynological dating, identified two new lithostratigraphic units: the Barrancão member (upper Famennian) ascribed to the Phyllite–Quartzite Group and made up of laminated dark shales with siliceous lenses and nodules, and the Ribeira de Cobres Formation of the Volcanic Sedimentary Complex, containing shales, siltstones and fine volcaniclastic rocks. Based on zircon U–Pb isotope dating, five discrete felsic magmatic events were identified at approximately 354, 359, 365, 373 and 384 Ma. This suggests that the volcanic activity in the area has extended for about 30 Ma, in a context of high regional heat flow as indicated by the geochemical signatures of the felsic volcanic rocks. The characteristics of magmatism and the depositional environment indicated by the sedimentary record should therefore have been highly favourable for massive sulphide formation. However, evidence of massive sulphide mineralization in the study area is still to be found. Moreover, reconstruction of the volcanic facies architecture demonstrated that the volcanic units in the Rosário area are strongly dominated by coherent facies typical of the inner part of thick lavas/domes. In fact, most of their external part, the more favourable location for possible massive sulphide mineralization, is missing. Palynological dating indicates a significant hiatus, recognised between the lower and upper sequences of the volcanic sedimentary complex, which implies erosion of the top of the volcanic centre, where VHMS deposits could possibly have formed. However, lateral areas of this volcanic centre, eventually preserved at depth, have good potential to host massive sulphide mineralization.     

The influence of the environmental status of Casa Caiada and Rio Doce beaches (NE-Brazil) on beaches users

This paper describes the environmental status and the social perception of Casa Caiada (bay 1) and Rio Doce (bay 2 and bay 3) as a consequence of the several impacts that these beaches have been suffering. The methodology adopted in this work was based on interviews with beach users and direct observations of the physical, biological and human aspects. The obtained result denotes that in Casa Caiada the better beach quality is a consequence of the better water quality, infrastructure and services permitting a higher investment in housing development, recreation, commercialization, fishing, tourism, amongst others. In contrast, northward of Rio Doce (bay 3), the beach has been considered of bad quality for the beach users. In Casa Caiada the users were the most demanding when describing the status of the beach and the necessary changes to mitigate the actual situation. On the other hand, in the most degradated area (bay 3) the users were less demanding when proposing possible changes to improve the beach/water and life quality.