The Ashima/MIT Mars GCM and argon in the martian atmosphere

We investigate the ability of modern general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate transport in the martian atmosphere using measurements of argon as a proxy for the transport processes. Argon provides the simplest measure of transport as it is a noble gas with no sinks or sources on seasonal timescales. Variations in argon result solely from ‘freeze distillation’, as the atmosphere condenses at the winter poles, and from atmospheric transport. Comparison of all previously published models when rescaled to a common definition of the argon enhancement factor (EF) suggest that models generally do a poor job in predicting the peak enhancement in southern winter over the winter pole – the time when the capability of the model transport approaches are most severely tested. Despite observed peak EF values of ～6, previously published model predictions peaked at EF values of only 2–3. We introduce a new GCM that provides a better treatment of mass conservation within the dynamical core, includes more sophisticated tracer transport approaches, and utilizes a cube–sphere grid structure thus avoiding the grid-point convergence problem at the pole that exists for most current Mars GCMs. We describe this model – the Ashima Research/Massachusetts Institute of Technology Mars General Circulation Model (Ashima/MIT Mars GCM) and use it to demonstrate the significant sensitivity of peak EF to the choices of transport approach for both tracers and heat. We obtain a peak EF of 4.75 which, while over 50% higher than any prior model, remains well short of the observed value. We show that the polar EF value in winter is primarily determined by the competition between two processes: (1) mean meridional import of lower-latitude air not enriched in argon and (2) the leakage of enriched argon out of the polar column by eddies in the lowest atmospheric levels. We suggest possibilities for improving GCM representation of the CO₂ cycle and the general circulation that may further improve the simulation of the argon cycle. We conclude that current GCMs may be insufficient for detailed simulation of transport-sensitive problems like the water cycle and potentially also the dust cycle.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.     

A two-surface thermomechanical plasticity model considering thermal cyclic behavior

In thermal-related engineering such as thermal energy structures and nuclear waste disposal, it is essential to well understand volume change and excess pore water pressure buildup of soils under thermal cycles. However, most existing thermo-mechanical models can merely simulate one heating–cooling cycle and fail in capturing accumulation phenomenon due to multiple thermal cycles. In this study, a two-surface elasto-plastic model considering thermal cyclic behavior is proposed. This model is based on the bounding surface plasticity and progressive plasticity by introducing two yield surfaces and two loading yield limits. A dependency law is proposed by linking two loading yield limits with a thermal accumulation parameter n_c, allowing the thermal cyclic behavior to be taken into account. Parameter n_c controls the evolution rate of the inner loading yield limit approaching the loading yield limit following a thermal loading path. By extending the thermo-hydro-mechanical equations into the elastic–plastic state, the excess pore water pressure buildup of soil due to thermal cycles is also accounted. Then, thermal cycle tests on four fine-grained soils (natural Boom clay, Geneva clay, Bonny silt, and reconstituted Pontida clay) under different OCRs and stresses are simulated and compared. The results show that the proposed model can well describe both strain accumulation phenomenon and excess pore water pressure buildup of fine-grained soils under the effect of thermal cycles.

     

Hydrodynamic time parameters response to meteorological and physical forcings: toward a stagnation risk assessment device in coastal areas

Ocean Dynamics - Identifying zones of stagnation and deposition of terrigenous matter or contaminants induced by human activity is a key issue in coastal areas. In this paper, circulation processes...     

Controls on permafrost thaw in a coupled groundwater-flow and heat-transport system: Iqaluit Airport,Nunavut, Canada

Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and heat transport are used to provide insight into the interaction between shallow groundwater flow and thermal dynamics related to permafrost thaw and thaw settlement at the Iqaluit Airport taxiway, Nunavut, Canada. A conceptual model is first developed for the site and a corresponding two-dimensional numerical model is calibrated to the observed ground temperatures. Future climate-warming impacts on the thermal regime and flow system are then simulated based on climate scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under climate warming, surface snow cover is identified as the leading factor affecting permafrost degradation, including its role in increasing the sensitivity of permafrost degradation to changes in various hydrogeological factors. In this case, advective heat transport plays a relatively minor, but non-negligible, role compared to conductive heat transport, due to the significant extent of low-permeability soil close to surface. Conductive heat transport, which is strongly affected by the surface snow layer, controls the release of unfrozen water and the depth of the active layer as well as the magnitude of thaw settlement and frost heave. Under the warmest climate-warming scenario with an average annual temperature increase of 3.23 °C for the period of 2011–2100, the simulations suggest that the maximum depth of the active layer will increase from 2 m in 2012 to 8.8 m in 2100 and, over the same time period, thaw settlement along the airport taxiway will increase from 0.11 m to at least 0.17 m.

     

利用重力卫星GRACE监测亚马逊流域2002-2010年的陆地水变化

本文利用GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) 卫星重力资料研究了亚马逊流域2002-2010年的陆地水变化,并与水文模式和降雨资料进行了比较分析.在年际尺度上,GRACE结果表明:2002-2003年和2005年,亚马逊流域发生明显的干旱现象;2007年至2009年,陆地水呈逐年增加的趋势,并在2009年6月变化值达到最大,为772±181 km³;自2009年6月至2010年12月,陆地水总量又急剧减少了1139±262 km³,这相当于全球海平面上升3.2±0.7 mm所需的水量.水文模式得到的亚马逊流域陆地水在2010年也表现出明显的减少.降雨资料与GRACE观测资料有很好的一致性.在2005年和2010年的干旱期,亚马逊流域的降雨显著减少,说明降雨是亚马逊流域陆地水变化的重要因素.此外,本文采用的尺度因子的方法有效地降低了GRACE后处理误差的影响.     

Contribution of geophysical surveys to groundwater modelling of a porous aquifer in semiarid Niger: An overview

Subsurface geophysical surveys were carried out using a large range of methods in an unconfined sandstone aquifer in semiarid south-western Niger for improving both the conceptual model of water flow through the unsaturated zone and the parameterization of numerical a groundwater model of the aquifer. Methods included: electromagnetic mapping, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), resistivity logging, time domain electromagnetic sounding (TDEM), and magnetic resonance sounding (MRS). Analyses of electrical conductivities, complemented by geochemical measurements, allowed us to identify preferential pathways for infiltration and drainage beneath gullies and alluvial fans. The mean water content estimated by MRS (13%) was used for computing the regional groundwater recharge from long-term change in the water table. The ranges in permeability and water content obtained with MRS allowed a reduction of the degree of freedom of aquifer parameters used in groundwater modelling.     

Review: The potential impact of underground geological storage of carbon dioxide in deep saline aquifers on shallow groundwater resources

Underground geological storage of CO₂ in deep saline aquifers is considered for reducing greenhouse gases emissions into the atmosphere. However, some issues were raised with regard to the potential hazards to shallow groundwater resources from CO₂ leakage, brine displacement and pressure build-up. An overview is provided of the current scientific knowledge pertaining to the potential impact on shallow groundwater resources of geological storage of CO₂ in deep saline aquifers, identifying knowledge gaps for which original research opportunities are proposed. Two main impacts are defined and discussed therein: the near-field impact due to the upward vertical migration of free-phase CO₂ to surficial aquifers, and the far-field impact caused by large-scale displacement of formation waters by the injected CO₂. For the near-field, it is found that numerical studies predict possible mobilization of trace elements but concentrations are rarely above the maximum limit for potable water. For the far-field, numerical studies predict only minor impacts except for some specific geological conditions such as high caprock permeability. Despite important knowledge gaps, the possible environmental impacts of geological storage of CO₂ in deep saline aquifers on shallow groundwater resources appears to be low, but much more work is required to evaluate site specific impacts.     

Middle and Late Carboniferous extension In the Variscan Belt: structural and petrological evidences from the Vosges massif (Eastern France)

Abstract

In the Moldanubian domain of the Vosges massif (INK France) euperimposition of three distinct crustal units has been attributed to Middle to Late Carboniferous thrusting. Л kinematic analysis of mierostuetures within each unit suggests that extension, following the formation of a Stack of nappes, is actually responsible for the bulk structure of this region. In order to estimate the related exhumation, the temperature and pressure evolution of the lowermost unit is investigated. It is characterised by (i) a prograde evolution within the stability field of kyanite, followed by (ii) a syn-kinematic, 3-4 kbar, near-isothermal decompression before (iii) cooling. Thermal modeling shows that the isothermal decompression may be related to rapid exhumation (> I mm.a^-1), which cannot be accounted for by erosion alone. Therefore, exhumation is best explained by extensional processes, possibly related to gravitational collapse of a thickened crust.     

Assessment of the ecological quality status of soft-bottoms in Reunion Island (tropical Southwest Indian Ocean) using AZTI marine biotic indices

The ability of the two synthetic marine biotic indices, AMBI and M-AMBI, to account for changes in the ecological quality of coastal soft bottoms of Reunion Island according to disturbances was assessed from macrobenthic samples collected in five sectors between 1994 and 2004. Samples were collected under non-perturbed conditions and at two sites subjected to heavy organic enrichment. Both indices are based on a classification of macrofauna into ecological groups (EG), and their transfer to tropical waters required some adaptations. These indices proved efficient in detecting a degradation of habitat quality. Their use resulted in the classification of all sites sampled between 1996 and 1998 as "good" or "high". M-AMBI nevertheless tended to result in the attribution of a slightly worse ecological quality status than AMBI. Together with an update of the EG species list for the Indian Ocean area, our results support the extension of both indices for the assessment of tropical soft bottoms.