Sources of contamination to weak lensing three-point statistics: constraints from N-body simulations

We investigate the impact of the observed correlation between a galaxy's shape and its surrounding density field on the measurement of third-order weak lensing shear statistics. Using numerical simulations, we estimate the systematic error contribution to a measurement of the third-order moment of the aperture mass statistic (GGG) from three-point intrinsic ellipticity correlations (III), and the three-point coupling between the weak lensing shear experienced by distant galaxies and the shape of foreground galaxies (GGI and GII). We find that third-order weak lensing statistics are typically more strongly contaminated by these physical systematics compared to second-order shear measurements, contaminating the measured three-point signal for moderately deep surveys with a median redshift   z _m∼ 0.7  by ∼15 per cent. It has been shown that accurate photometric redshifts will be crucial to correct for this effect, once a model and the redshift dependence of the effect can be accurately constrained. To this end we provide redshift-dependent fitting functions to our results and propose a new tool for the observational study of intrinsic galaxy alignments. For a shallow survey with   z _m∼ 0.4  we find III to be an order of magnitude larger than the expected cosmological GGG shear signal. Compared to the two-point intrinsic ellipticity correlation which is similar in amplitude to the two-point shear signal at these survey depths, third-order statistics therefore offer a promising new way to constrain models of intrinsic galaxy alignments. Early shallow data from the next generation of very wide weak lensing surveys will be optimal for this type of study.     

Two-Micron All-Sky Survey J01542930+0053266: a new eclipsing M dwarf binary system

We report on Two-Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) J01542930+0053266, a faint eclipsing system composed of two M dwarfs. The variability of this system was originally discovered during a pilot study of the 2MASS Calibration Point Source Working Data base. Additional photometry from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey yields an eight-passband light curve from which we derive an orbital period of  2.639 0157 ± 0.000 0016  d. Spectroscopic followup confirms our photometric classification of the system, which is likely composed of M0 and M1 dwarfs. Radial velocity measurements allow us to derive the masses  (M₁= 0.66 ± 0.03 M_⊙; M₂= 0.62 ± 0.03 M_⊙)  and radii  (R₁= 0.64 ± 0.08 R_⊙; R₂= 0.61 ± 0.09 R_⊙)  of the components, which are consistent with empirical mass–radius relationships for low-mass stars in binary systems. We perform Monte Carlo simulations of the light curves which allow us to uncover complicated degeneracies between the system parameters. Both stars show evidence of Hα emission, something not common in early-type M dwarfs. This suggests that binarity may influence the magnetic activity properties of low-mass stars; activity in the binary may persist long after the dynamos in their isolated counterparts have decayed, yielding a new potential foreground of flaring activity for next generation variability surveys.     

A reindeer herder's perspective on caribou, weather and socio-economic change on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Non-climate variables shape vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change. Here, we describe how recent environmental and socio-economic developments have transformed reindeer herding and perceptions of weather on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The reindeer industry has shrunk considerably since the early 1990s, when the winter range of the Western Arctic Caribou Herd expanded, and over 17 000 reindeer mixed with migrating caribou and left the region. Socio-economic and environmental repercussions make the continuation of herding tenuous, and erode the ability of herders to cope with weather variability, among other perturbations. We present a case study of one herder's annual cycle, and juxtapose physical drivers of herding activities, including weather-station and herder observations of local weather variability, with socio-economic factors. There is an increased urgency to access and monitor reindeer with caribou present, but herding plans are constrained by lower economic returns and the need to spend more time in non-herding jobs. Although weather is a greater concern now for immediate herd access, standard weather data are largely irrelevant to the mechanics of herding, whereas variables pertaining to the timing of biotic events (e.g., synchrony of spring break-up and calving) and visibility are attributed to lost herding opportunities. Short-term responses to weather conditions stem from more long-term vulnerability associated with caribou presence, reduced herd size, difficulties affording snowmobile maintenance or crew assistance, and dwindling market opportunities. We emphasize the environmental and socio-economic interactions that affect vulnerability and adaptive capacity for modern herding.     

A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions

During volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDs) are used to forecast the location and movement of ash clouds over hours to days in order to define hazards to aircraft and to communities downwind. Those models use input parameters, called “eruption source parameters”, such as plume height H, mass eruption rate Ṁ, duration D, and the mass fraction m₆₃ of erupted debris finer than about 4 or 63 μm, which can remain in the cloud for many hours or days. Observational constraints on the value of such parameters are frequently unavailable in the first minutes or hours after an eruption is detected. Moreover, observed plume height may change during an eruption, requiring rapid assignment of new parameters. This paper reports on a group effort to improve the accuracy of source parameters used by VATDs in the early hours of an eruption. We do so by first compiling a list of eruptions for which these parameters are well constrained, and then using these data to review and update previously studied parameter relationships. We find that the existing scatter in plots of H versus Ṁ yields an uncertainty within the 50% confidence interval of plus or minus a factor of four in eruption rate for a given plume height. This scatter is not clearly attributable to biases in measurement techniques or to well-recognized processes such as elutriation from pyroclastic flows. Sparse data on total grain-size distribution suggest that the mass fraction of fine debris m₆₃ could vary by nearly two orders of magnitude between small basaltic eruptions ( 0.01) and large silicic ones (> 0.5). We classify eleven eruption types; four types each for different sizes of silicic and mafic eruptions; submarine eruptions; “brief” or Vulcanian eruptions; and eruptions that generate co-ignimbrite or co-pyroclastic flow plumes. For each eruption type we assign source parameters. We then assign a characteristic eruption type to each of the world's  1500 Holocene volcanoes. These eruption types and associated parameters can be used for ash-cloud modeling in the event of an eruption, when no observational constraints on these parameters are available.     

Geochemical study of submicron particulate matter(PM1)in a metropolitan area

Air pollution has become a major problem in urban areas due to increasing industrialization and urbanization.In this study ambient concentrations of PM1 and metal concentrations as well as source contributions were identified and quantified by using Positive Matrix Factorization(PMF)in receptor modeling in the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre,Brazil.The PM1 samples were collected on PTFE filters from December 2012 to December 2014 in two sampling sites.Major ion and trace element concentrations were assessed.The average concentrations were 12.8 and 15.2μg/m³ for Canoas and Sapucaia do Sul sites,respectively.Major ion contributions of PM1 were secondary pollutants such as sulfate and nitrate.Trace elements,especially Cu,Pb,Zn,Cd,and Ni also made important contributions which are directly associated with anthropogenic contributions.Our results show significantly higher levels in winter than in summer.Most of the PM1 and the analyzed PM species and elements originated from anthropogenic sources,especially road traffic,combustion processes and industrial activities,which are grouped in 7 major contributing sources.A back-trajectory analysis showed that the long-range transport of pollutants was not relevant in relation to the contribution to PM1 and metal concentrations.This work highlights the importance of urban planning to reduce human health exposure to traffic and industrial emissions,combined with awareness-raising actions for citizens concerning the impact of indoor sources.     

Pyroclastic flow erosion and bulking processes: comparing field-based vs. modeling results at Tungurahua volcano,Ecuador

Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are high-temperature and high-velocity mixtures that threaten populations in the vicinity of many active volcanoes. Deciphering the cause of their remarkable mobility is essential for volcanic hazard analysis, but remains difficult because of the complex processes occurring within the flows. Here, we investigate the effect of bulking on dense PDC mobility by means of a double approach. First, we estimate the amount of material incorporated into scoria flows emplaced during the August 2006 eruption of Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. For this, we carry out a detailed analysis of 3D-corrected digital images of well-exposed scoria flow deposits. Componentry analysis indicates that PDC bulking occurs principally on the steep (>25°) upper slope of the volcano, and the deposits typically comprise 40–50 wt% of non-juvenile (i.e., accessory and accidental) material. Secondly, we develop a simple stress-related grain-by-grain equation of erosion combined with two simple depth-averaged geophysical mass-flow models that compare the bulking mechanism to a non-fluidized and a fluidized flow. Two behaviors based on Coulomb and plastic rheologies are used to reproduce, on a first order basis, the 2006 Tungurahua PDCs. Cross-check comparisons between these modeled cases and the erosion pattern inferred from field-based data allow us to evaluate the accuracy of our modeling assumptions. Regardless of the rheological regime, the PDC-induced erosion pattern of the 2006 Tungurahua eruption can only be reproduced by fluctuations of the flow’s basal shear stress during emplacement. Such variations are controlled by flow thinning-thickening processes, notably through the formation of a thick non-erosive flow body that pushes a thin frictional erosive front during PDC emplacement. The input volume of juvenile material, as well as the thickness of the erodible layer available prior to the eruption, are additional key parameters. Our work highlights complexities in PDC erosion and bulking processes that deserve further study. In terms of hazard assessment, our findings reveal that incorporation and bulking translate into increased flow mobility, i.e., the augmented flow mass enhances both flow velocity and runout distance (up to 20 %). These outcomes should be considered closely for hazard analysis at many other andesitic volcanoes worldwide where similar PDC events are common.     

Petrographic,fluid inclusion and isotopic study of the Dikulushi Cu–Ag deposit,Katanga (D.R.C.): implications for exploration

The Dikulushi Cu–Ag vein-type deposit is located on the Kundelungu Plateau, in the southeastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (D.R.C.). The Kundelungu Plateau is situated to the north of the Lufilian Arc that hosts the world-class stratiform Cu–Co deposits of the Central African Copperbelt. A combined petrographic, fluid inclusion and stable isotope study revealed that the mineralisation at Dikulushi developed during two spatially and temporally distinct mineralising episodes. An early Cu–Pb–Zn–Fe mineralisation took place during the Lufilian Orogeny in a zone of crosscutting EW- and NE-oriented faults and consists of a sequence of sulphides that precipitated from moderate-temperature, saline H₂O–NaCl–CaCl₂-rich fluids. These fluids interacted extensively with the country rocks. Sulphur was probably derived from thermochemical reduction of Neoproterozoic seawater sulphate. Undeformed, post-orogenic Cu–Ag mineralisation remobilised the upper part of the Cu–Pb–Zn–Fe mineralisation in an oxidising environment along reactivated and newly formed NE-oriented faults in the eastern part of the deposit. This mineralisation is dominated by massive Ag-rich chalcocite that precipitated from low-temperature H₂O–NaCl–KCl fluids, generated by mixing of moderate- and low-saline fluids. The same evolution in mineralisation assemblages and types of mineralising fluids is observed in three other Cu deposits on the Kundelungu Plateau. Therefore, the recognition of two distinct types of (vein-type) mineralisation in the study area has a profound impact on the exploration in the Kundelungu Plateau region. The identification of a Cu–Ag type mineralisation at the surface could imply the presence of a Cu–Pb–Zn–Fe mineralisation at depth.     

Early Ipswichian (last interglacial) sea level rise in the channel region: Stone Point Site of Special Scientific Interest,Hampshire, England

Constraining the speed of sea level rise at the start of an interglacial is important to understanding the size of the ‘window of opportunity’ available for hominin migration. This is particularly important during the last interglacial when there is no evidence for significant hominin occupation anywhere in Britain. There are very few finer grained fossiliferous sequences in the Channel region that can be used to constrain sea level rise and they are preserved only to the north of the Channel, in England. Of these, the sequence at Stone Point SSSI is by far the most complete. Data from this sequence has been previously reported, and discussed at a Quaternary Research Association Field Meeting, where a number of further questions were raised that necessitated further data generation. In this paper, we report new data from this sequence – thin section analysis, isotopic determinations on ostracod shells, new Optical Stimulated Luminescence ages and Amino Acid Recem analyses. These show early sea level rise in this sequence, starting during the pre-temperate vegetation zone IpI, but no early warming. The implications of this almost certainly last interglacial sequence for the human colonisation of Britain and our understanding of the stratigraphic relationship of interglacial estuarine deposits with their related fluvial terrace sequences is explored.     

New radiometric and petrological constraints on the evolution of the Pichincha volcanic complex (Ecuador)

Fieldwork, radiometric (⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and ¹⁴C) ages and whole-rock geochemistry allow a reconstruction of eruptive stages at the active, mainly dacitic, Pichincha Volcanic Complex (PVC), whose eruptions have repeatedly threatened Quito, most recently from 1999 to 2001. After the emplacement of basal lavas dated at ∼1100 to 900 ka, the eruptive activity of the old Rucu Pichincha volcano lasted from ∼850 ka to ∼150 ka before present (BP) and resulted in a 15 × 20 km-wide edifice, which comprises three main building stages: (1) A lower stratocone (Lower Rucu, ∼160 km³ in volume) developed from ∼850 to 600 ka; (2) This edifice was capped by a steeper-sided and less voluminous cone (the Upper Rucu, 40–50 km³), the history of which started 450–430 ka ago and ended around 250 ka with a sector collapse; (3) A smaller (8–10 km³) but more explosive edifice grew in the avalanche amphitheatre and ended Rucu Pichincha's history about 150 ka ago. The Guagua Pichincha volcano (GGP) was developed from 60 ka on the western flank of Rucu with four growth stages separated by major catastrophic events. (1) From ∼60 to 47 ka, a basal effusive stratocone developed, terminating with a large ash-and-pumice flow event. (2) This basal volcano was followed by a long-lasting dome building stage and related explosive episodes, the latter occurring between 28–30 and 22–23 ka. These first two stages formed the main GGP (∼30 km³), a large part of which was removed by a major collapse 11 ka BP. (3) Sustained explosive activity and viscous lava extrusions gave rise to a new edifice, Toaza (4–5 km³ in volume), which in turn collapsed around 4 ka BP. (4) The ensuing amphitheatre was partly filled by the ∼1-km³ Cristal dome, which is the historically active centre of the Pichincha complex. The average output rate for the whole PVC is 0.29 km³/ka. Nevertheless, the chronostratigraphic resolution we obtained for Lower Rucu Pichincha and for the two main edifices of Guagua Pichincha (main GGP and Toaza), leads to eruptive rates of 0.60–0.65 km³/ka during these construction stages. These output rates are compared to those of other mainly dacitic volcanoes from continental arcs. Our study also supports an overall SiO₂ and large-ion lithophile elements enrichment as the PVC develops. In particular, distinctive geochemical signatures indicate the involvement of a new magma batch at the transition between Rucu and Guagua. At the GGP, the same phenomenon occurs at each major collapse event marking the onset of the ensuing magmatic stage. Since the 11-ka-BP collapse event, this magmatic behaviour has led to increasingly explosive activity. Four explosive cycles of between 100 and 200 years long have taken place at the Cristal dome in the past 3.7 ka, and repose intervals between these cycles have tended to decrease with time. As a consequence, we suggest that the 1999–2001 eruptive period may have initiated a new eruptive cycle that might pose a future hazard to Quito (∼2 million inhabitants).     

Particulate matter geochemistry of a highly industrialized region in the Caribbean:Basis for future toxicological studies

Air pollution has become an important issue,especially in Caribbean urban areas,and,particulate matter(PM)emitted by different natural and anthropogenic sources causes environmental and health issues.In this work,we studied the concentrations of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 sources in an industrial and port urban area in the Caribbean region of Colombia.PM samples were collected within 48-h periods between April and October 2018 by using a Partisol 2000 i-D sampler.Elemental geochemical characterization was performed by X-ray fluorescence(XRF)analysis.Further,ionic species and black carbon(BC)were quantified by ion chromatography and reflectance spectroscopy,respectively.Using the Positive Matrix Factorization(PMF)receptor model,the contributions of PM sources were quantified.The average concentration of PM₁₀ was 46.6±16.2μg/m³,with high concentrations of Cl and Ca.For PM_2.5,the average concentration was 12.0±3.2μg/m³,and the most abundant components were BC,S,and Cl.The receptor model identified five sources for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5.For both fractions,the contributions of marine sea spray,re-suspended soil,and vehicular traffic were observed.In addition,PM_2.5 included two mixed sources were found to be fuel oil combustion with fertilizer industry emissions,and secondary aerosol sources with building construction emissions.Further,PM₁₀ was found to also include building construction emissions with re-suspended soil,and metallurgical industry emissions.These obtained geochemical atmospheric results are important for the implementation of strategies for the continuous improvement of the air quality of the Caribbean region.