Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.     

Geochemical constraints on the origin and tectonic setting of the serpentinized peridotites from the Paleoproterozoic Nyong series,Eseka area,SW Cameroon

Serpentinized rocks closely associated with Paleoproterozoic eclogitic metabasites were recently discovered at Eseka area in the northwestern edge of the Congo craton in southern Cameroon. Here, we present new field data, petrography, and first comprehensible whole-rock geochemistry data and discuss the protolith and tectonic significance of these serpentinites in the region. The studied rock samples are characterized by pseudomorphic textures, including mesh microstructure formed by serpentine intergrowths with cores of olivine, bastites after pyroxene. Antigorite constitutes almost the whole bulk of the rocks and is associated (to the less amount) with tremolite, talc, spinel, and magnetite. Whole-rock chemistry of the Eseka serpentinites led to the distinction of two types. Type 1 has high MgO (> 40 wt%) content and high Mg# values (88.80) whereas Type 2 serpentinite samples display relatively low MgO concentration and Mg# values (< 40 and 82.88 wt%, respectively). Both types have low Al/Si and high Mg/Si ratios than the primitive mantle, reflecting a refractory abyssal mantle peridotite protolith. Partial melting modeling indicates that these rocks were derived from melting of spinel peridotite before serpentinization. Bulk rock high-Ti content is similar to the values of subducted serpentinites (> 50 ppm). This similarity, associated with the high Cr contents, spinel-peridotite protolith compositions and Mg/Si and Al/Si ratios imply that the studied serpentinites were formed in a subduction-related environment. The U-shaped chondrite normalized-REE patterns of serpentinized peridotites, coupled with similar enrichments in LREE and HFSE, suggest the refertilized nature due to melt/rock interaction prior to serpentinization. Based on the results, we suggest that the Eseka serpentinized peridotites are mantle residues that suffered a high degree of partial melting in a subduction-related environment, especially in Supra Subduction Zone setting. These new findings suggest that the Nyong series in Cameroon represents an uncontested Paleoproterozoic suture zone between the Congo craton and the São Francisco craton in Brazil.

     

Determination of Radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr and Stable δ88/86SrSRM987 Isotope Values of Thirteen Mineral,Vegetal and Animal Reference Materials by DS‐TIMS

This work presents new ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 isotopic values of thirteen mineral, vegetal and animal reference materials. Except for UB‐N, all our results are consistent with previously published data. Our results highlight intermediate precisions among the best presently published and a non‐significant systematic shift with the calculated δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 mean values for the three most analysed reference materials in the literature (i.e., IAPSO, BCR‐2 and JCp‐1). By comparison with the literature and between two distinct digestions, a significant bias of δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 values was highlighted for two reference materials (UB‐N and GS‐N). It has also been shown that digestion protocols (nitric and multi‐acid) have a moderate impact on the δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 isotopic values for the Jls‐1 reference materials suggesting that a nitric acid digestion of carbonate can be used without significant bias from partial digestion of non‐carbonate impurities. Different δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 values were measured after two independent Sr/matrix separations, according to the same protocol, for a fat‐rich organic reference material (BCR‐380R) and have been related to a potential post‐digestion heterogeneity. Finally, the δ^88/86Sr_SRM987 value differences measured between animal‐vegetal and between coral‐seawater reference materials agree with the previously published results, highlighting an Sr isotopic fractionation along the trophic chain and during carbonate precipitation.     

The shape of the seismic response interaction diagram: The effect of combination rules in response spectrum analysis

This paper deals with the construction of seismic response interaction diagrams that show the correlation of multiple responses and are important to determine the critical combination of modal responses. Many design problems, such as column design under combined axial force and bending moments, fall into this category. We address general modal and multicomponent combination rules and study their effect on the shape of the response interaction diagrams, thus extending previous work done for quadratic combination rules. Special attention is given to multilinear combination rules which lead to polyhedral shapes. Having developed efficient methods to deal with polyhedral shapes, we explore the idea of adopting a multilinear modal combination rule to compose with a multicomponent percentage rule.     

Lagged rejuvenation of groundwater indicates internal flow structures and hydrological connectivity

Large proportions of rainwater and snowmelt infiltrate into the subsurface before contributing to stream flow and stream water quality. Subsurface flow dynamics steer the transport and transformation of contaminants, carbon, weathering products and other biogeochemistry. The distribution of groundwater ages with depth is a key feature of these flow dynamics. Predicting these ages are a strong test of hypotheses about subsurface structures and time-varying processes. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-based groundwater ages revealed an unexpected groundwater age stratification in a 0.47 km² forested catchment called Svartberget in northern Sweden. An overall groundwater age stratification, representative for the Svartberget site, was derived by measuring CFCs from nine different wells with depths of 2–18 m close to the stream network. Immediately below the water table, CFC-based groundwater ages of already 30 years that increased with depth were found. Using complementary groundwater flow models, we could reproduce the observed groundwater age stratification and show that the 30 year lag in rejuvenation comes from return flow of groundwater at a subsurface discharge zone that evolves along the interface between two soil types. By comparing the observed groundwater age stratification with a simple analytical approximation, we show that the observed lag in rejuvenation can be a powerful indicator of the extent and structure of the subsurface discharge zone, while the vertical gradient of the age-depth-relationship can still be used as a proxy of the overall aquifer recharge even when sampled in the discharge zone. The single age stratification profile measured in the discharge zone, close to the aquifer outlet, can reveal the main structure of the groundwater flow pattern from recharge to discharge. This groundwater flow pattern provides information on the participation of groundwater in the hydrological cycle and indicates the lower boundary of hydrological connectivity.     

How much does an extreme rainfall event cost? Material damage and relationships between insurance,rainfall, land cover and urban flooding

This research aims to understand how insurance, rainfall, land cover and urban flooding are related and how these variables influenced the material damage in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) during the 2000–2011 period. Correlation coefficients show strong relationships between built-up areas and claims (0.94) and payouts (0.88). Despite no significant relationships being found between rainfall and the amount of material damage per event, three likelihood levels of flooding were determined for hourly rainfall. Unlike the studied period, the number of claims and their spatial distribution during the 2008 extreme rainfall event were strongly dependent on rainfall. Flooding related to the old watercourses assumed greater importance during this extreme event, recovering a more natural/ancient hydrological behaviour. In the LMA, the greatest material damage was the result of high-magnitude/low-probability rainfall events. Lower magnitude events can trigger numerous claims in heavily built-up areas, but they are hardly capable of producing large material damage.     

Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

Abstract

This article presents a comparison between real-time discharges calculated by a flash-flood warning system and post-event flood peak estimates. The studied event occurred on 15 and 16 June 2010 at the Argens catchment located in the south of France. Real-time flood warnings were provided by the AIGA (Adaptation d’Information Géographique pour l’Alerte en Crue) warning system, which is based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1-km² resolution using radar rainfall information. The timing of the warnings (updated every 15 min) was compared to the observed flood impacts. Furthermore, “consolidated” flood peaks estimated by an intensive post-event survey were used to evaluate the AIGA-estimated peak discharges. The results indicated that the AIGA warnings clearly identified the most affected areas. However, the effective lead-time of the event detection was short, especially for fast-response catchments, because the current method does not take into account any rainfall forecast. The flood peak analysis showed a relatively good correspondence between AIGA- and field-estimated peak values, although some differences were due to the rainfall underestimation by the radar and rainfall–runoff model limitations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J. and Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1390–1402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923970     

Geomorphic controls on mercury accumulation in soils from a historically mined watershed, Central California Coast Range, USA

Historic Hg mining in the Cache Creek watershed in the Central California Coast Range has contributed to the downstream transport of Hg to the San Francisco Bay-Delta. Different aspects of Hg mobilization in soils, including pedogenesis, fluvial redistribution of sediment, volatilization and eolian transport were considered. The greatest soil concentrations (>30 mg Hg kg⁻¹) in Cache Creek are associated with mineralized serpentinite, the host rock for Hg deposits. Upland soils with non-mineralized serpentine and sedimentary parent material also had elevated concentrations (0.9–3.7 mg Hg kg⁻¹) relative to the average concentration in the region and throughout the conterminous United States (0.06 mg kg⁻¹). Erosion of soil and destabilized rock and mobilization of tailings and calcines into surrounding streams have contributed to Hg-rich alluvial soil forming in wetlands and floodplains. The concentration of Hg in floodplain sediment shows sediment dispersion from low-order catchments (5.6–9.6 mg Hg kg⁻¹ in Sulphur Creek; 0.5–61 mg Hg kg⁻¹ in Davis Creek) to Cache Creek (0.1–0.4 mg Hg kg⁻¹). These sediments, deposited onto the floodplain during high-flow storm events, yield elevated Hg concentrations (0.2–55 mg Hg kg⁻¹) in alluvial soils in upland watersheds. Alluvial soils within the Cache Creek watershed accumulate Hg from upstream mining areas, with concentrations between 0.06 and 0.22 mg Hg kg⁻¹ measured in soils 90 km downstream from Hg mining areas. Alluvial soils have accumulated Hg released through historic mining activities, remobilizing this Hg to streams as the soils erode.     

On the computation of the electrical potential inside a horizontally‐layered half‐space

A new formulation is proposed for the electrical potential developed inside a horizontally‐layered half‐space for a direct current point‐source at the surface. The recursion formula for the kernel coefficient in the potential integral is simpler than the generally used two‐coefficient recursion. The numerical difficulties that may occur during the computation of the integrals and near the source axis are examined and solutions are proposed. The set of equations permits a stable and accurate computation of the tabular potential everywhere in the medium.