On forecasting abnormal climatic events in the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Modelling and observational evidence indicate that interannual variabilities of dynamic height and sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea) are largely induced by preceding fluctuations in wind stress, mainly in the western equatorial basin. A wind-driven linear ocean model is used here to test the possibility of forecasting the abnormal dynamic heights. A control run of the model, forced by 1964–1993 wind stress monthly means, is first conducted. Yearly test runs (1964-1994) are subsequently performed from January to August by forcing the model with observed winds from January to May, and then by forcing with the May wind assumed to persist from June to August. During the last three decades the largest deviations of dynamic height simulated by the control run in the Gulf of Guinea in boreal summer would have been correctly forecast from wind data related only to conditions in May of each year. However, for weak climatic anomalies, the model may forecast overestimated values. For the most part (about 20 times during the last 30 years), the sign of the observed SST anomaly in the centre of the Gulf of Guinea during the boreal summer is identical to the sign of simulated anomalies of dynamic height deduced from both control and test runs. Along the eastern equatorial waveguide, the sea level forecasting skill slowly decreases from the first 2 weeks of June until the second 2 weeks of August, but remains high on both sides of the equator throughout boreal summer, as is expected from the adjustment in a linear ocean model. It is established that throughout the year in the Gulf of Guinea the accuracy of the 1-month forecast dynamic height anomaly provided by the simple linear method is greater than that of the 1-month forecast assuming persistence.     

Prediction of extractable metals in retention pond sediments at surface coal mines

Fifty-two grab samples of bottom sediment in settling ponds were obtained at 17 surface coal mines in the eastern and midwestern U.S. A series of laboratory extraction procedures were designed to simulate a wide range of possible natural conditions. The three types of laboratory extraction procedures were (1) a low-pH buffered extract; (2) a series of low-pH, near-neutral-pH, and high-pH nonbuffered extracts; and (3) a DTPA extract. For the transition metals examined (Fe, Mn, Ni, Zn, Co, Cu, Cr, Fe, Al), higher percentages were extracted by the low-pH buffered extract than by the low-pH nonbuffered extract and the DTPA extract. Within the nonbuffered series, higher percentages of individual metals were extracted at lower pH levels. There was generally a consistent order of “extractability” for all the extracts performed. At the mines using a chemical treatment to neutralize acid mine drainage, Mn was the most mobile and Fe and Al the least mobile of the metals considered; at the mines not using a chemical treatment, Ni, Zn, and Co were among the most mobile and Fe, Al, and Cr the least mobile of the metals studied. Two stepwise regression procedures (maximum R² improvement and backward elimination) were used to suggest a ranking of independent variables that influence extractable metals. Statistically significant independent variables differed for the various metals. In general, the total amount of metal present was most important in determining metal extractability in the buffered extract at the mines using chemical treatment, and variables related to the natural acidity or alkalinity of the sediment and element interrelationships were important in the other extracts. A detailed examination of regression equations for the buffered extract suggests that it is possible to predict extractable metals using simple regression models based on the total amount of metals present, metals interrelationships, and sediment acidity or alkalinity.     

Dust,clouds, rain types,and climatic variations in tropical north Africa

Dust and processes of raindrop formation in the clouds play a very important role in the climatic evolution of tropical north Africa. Sedimentologic, stratigraphic, pedologic, geomorphologic, and palynologic data converge to show that a major environmental change occurred in tropical Africa about 7000 yr B.P. In the Sudanian and Sudano-Guinean zones (wet tropical zone), from 15,000 to 7000 yr B.P., rivers deposited mostly clay, while from 7000 to 4000 yr B.P. they deposited mostly sand. During the first period, pedogenesis was vertisolic (montmorillonite dominant), associated with pollen belonging mostly to vegetation typical of hydromorphic soils, while during the second period pedogenesis was of ferruginous type (kaolinite dominant) with pollen belonging mostly to vegetation typical of well-drained soils. The great change near 7000 yr B.P. is linked chiefly to a major hydrological change that appears related to a change in the size of raindrops: from fine rains associated with considerable atmospheric dust (raindrop diameter essentially less than 2 mm) to the second period associated with thunderstorm rains (raindrop diameter mostly greater than 2 mm). The size of raindrops is related particularly to cloud thickness and dust concentration in the troposphere. Thunderstorm activity is influenced also by fluctuations of the atmospheric electricity, modulated by the sun.     

Late Pleistocene paleo-oceanography of the Norwegian-Greenland Sea: Benthic foraminiferal evidence

Fluctuations in benthic foraminiferal faunas over the last 130,000 yr in four piston cores from the Norwegian Sea are correlated with the standard worldwide oxygen-isotope stratigraphy. One species, Cibicides wuellerstorfi, dominates in the Holocene section of each core, but alternates downcore with Oridorsalis tener, a species dominant today only in the deepest part of the basin. O. tener is the most abundant species throughout the entire basin during periods of particularly cold climate when the Norwegian Sea presumably was ice covered year round and surface productivity lowered. Portions of isotope Stages 6, 3, and 2 are barren of benthic foraminifera; this is probably due to lowered benthic productivity, perhaps combined with dilution by ice-rafted sediment; there is no evidence that the Norwegian Sea became azoic. The Holocene and Substage 5e (the last interglacial) are similar faunally. This similarity, combined with other evidence, supports the presumption that the Norwegian Sea was a source of dense overflows into the North Atlantic during Substage 5e as it is today. Oxygen-isotope analyses of benthic foraminifera indicate that Norwegian Sea bottom waters warmer than they are today from Substage 5d to Stage 2, with the possible exception of Substage 5a. These data show that the glacial Norwegian Sea was not a sink for dense surface water, as it is now, and thus it was not a source of deep-water overflows. The benthic foraminiferal populations of the deep Norwegian Sea seem at least as responsive to near-surface conditions, such as sea-ice cover, as they are to fluctuations in the hydrography of the deep water. Benthic foraminiferal evidence from the Norwegian Sea is insufficient in itself to establish whether or not the basin was a source of overflows into the North Atlantic at any time between the Substage 5e/5d boundary at 115,000 yr B.P. and the Holocene.     

Etude des Déformations et Inclinaisons du Sous-sol: Développements Instrumentaux et Applications dans la Région Sismique d’Arette,France

We present a modified version of a tilt and strain meter conceived to have great sensibility and good stability. These instruments were deployed in a cave at the seismic Pyrenean region of Arette (France). We set in evidence several types of phenomena, of which deformations brought about by water recharge filling up fissures on the massif are of importance. Owing to the redundance in the data, the study of the co-seismic deformations allows one to separate instrumental displacements and local readjustments from regional motions.     

Fracturation tertiaire et évolution des contraintes en Bavière orientale: le Jura franconien et la forêt bavaroise (R.F.A.)

Résumé L'analyse géométrique et cinématique de la fracturation dans le Jura franconien et la bordure occidentale du Massif bohémien met en évidence les mécanismes de la tectonique cassante d'âge teriaire, essentiellement ceux des grands accidents SE-NW (lignes de Pfahl et de Franconie) qui ont présenté successivement des jeux en coulissement dextre, en faille normale et en faille inverse. Cinq états de contrainte ont été caractérisés et comparés à ceux définis antérieurement dans le Jura souabe, en liaison avec la cinématique des plaques Europe et Afrique: compression N-S, distension E-W, compression NE-SW puis E-W, distension N-S.

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The analysis of both the geometric and the kinematic cenozoic faulting in the Franconian Jura and in western Bohemia enables to characterize the mechanisms of cenozoic tectonics. More especially dextral strike-slip, normal fault and reverse fault have successively occurred along large SE-NW fault line, as the Pfahl and the Franconian fault systems. Five main stress patterns have thus been identified and then compared with those previously described in Swabian Jura. They are related to the kinematic of Europe and Africa plates, i. e.: (1) N-S compression, (2) E-W distension, (3) SW-NE compression, (4) E-W compression, (5) N-S distension.

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Zusammenfassung Durch die geometrische und kinematische Analyse der Brüche wird die tertiäre Bruchtektonik (tectonique cassante) im Fränkischen Jura und am westlichen Rand des Böhmischen Massifs belegt. Es handelt sich im wesentlichen um die großen SE-NW orientierten Störungen der Linie von Pfahl und der Fränkischen Linie, die nacheinander als dextrale Blattverschiebungen, als Normalverwerfungen und als inverse Verwerfungen wirkten. Fünf Spannungszustände können charakterisiert und mit jenen, die bereits im Schwäbischen Jura definiert wurden, verglichen werden. Sie spiegeln die verschiedenen Stadien der kinematischen Entwicklung der europäischen und afrikanischen Platte wider: Kompression N-S, Zerrung E-W, Kompression NE-SW, sodann E-W, Zerrung N-S.

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A Seeing Monitor for Solar and Other Extended Object Observations

In this article I describe a site survey facility, which measures the signals of the solar equivalent of a Differential Image Motion Monitor (S-DIMM) and of a six element linear array of solar scintillometers. Combining the S-DIMM r _o andscintillometer _I observations allows the determination of the fractions of the seeing in the free atmosphere and in the ground/lake layer. From the scintillometer array observations C _n ² (h) is determined for heights corresponding to the first 500 m along the line-of-sight. With minor changes this seeing monitor can also be used for other extended objects like the Moon and planets.     

Comparative Solar Seeing and Scintillation Studies at the Fuxian Lake Solar Station

Starting November 1999 we are carrying out simultaneous seeing observations with the Solar Differential Image Motion Monitor (S-DIMM) at the Fuxian Lake station of the Yunnan Observatory and a solar scintillometer of the type used in the recent site survey by one of us (Beckers et al., 1997). The purpose was to compare the two methods of assessing the daytime atmospheric seeing for a lake site. We report here the first results of this comparison. We find that the relation between the seeing as measured by the S-DIMM (the Fried parameter r ₀) and the scintillation in the solar irradiance (_I) differs greatly from the relation found by Seykora (1993) for NSO/Sac Peak. We conclude that the _I measurements give a good indication for the amount of near-Earth seeing but that they are a poor proxy for the total atmospheric seeing. We interpret the simultaneous (r ₀, _I) observations in terms of an atmospheric seeing model and find good quantitative agreement with a model in which a fraction () of the seeing originated near the Earth (ground or water) and the rest (1–) originates at higher layers. For lake sites is small all day and the seeing is determined primarily by the refractive index variations at higher atmospheric layers. For land sites is small in the early morning but rapidly increases as the day progresses, near-Earth seeing dominating there most of the time.